Monday, December 30, 2002
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Cities figure state is wrong

Population count may hurt income

The pace of Clark County's rapid population growth slowed last year and almost stood still in the city of Las Vegas, according to preliminary estimates by the state demographer.

But local officials say the state's numbers are wrong and have appealed the findings of State Demographer Jeff Hardcastle.

It's an arcane battle between statisticians that has real-world implications for local governments, which could lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in potential revenue if their growth rates are determined to be lower than their own estimates show.

"It's hugely important," said Tom Perrigo, a senior statistical analyst with the Las Vegas Planning & Development Department. "If they're (the state) relying on information that's increasingly underreporting population, the effects could be quite dramatic."

According to preliminary estimates by Hardcastle, Clark County's population swelled by 3.7 percent to 1,541,395 in the 12-month period that ended June 30.

Hardcastle said Friday that growth in the city of Las Vegas climbed by just 1 percent to 508,109 during the same period.

But Perrigo pegs the city's July 1 population at 520,936 for an annual growth rate of just under 3 percent.

Perrigo's complaints are echoed by officials in Clark County, Henderson, North Las Vegas and Boulder City, all of whom are appealing Hardcastle's estimates.

The county estimates its population at 1,584,944, or 43,549 more residents than Hardcastle estimates.

By law, Gov. Kenny Guinn must certify the state demographer's figures by March 1.

Representatives from local governments plan to meet this week to share information and ideas before taking their case to Hardcastle. If a compromise can't be reached, the issue will be resolved in a hearing before the state Department of Taxation.

"We're just asking that the state demographer look at some other variables in addition to the ones that were used," said Scott Woodbury, demographer for the city of Henderson.

Both sides agree that the discrepancy stems from the different formulas that the state and local governments use to compute their populations.

Local governments rely mainly on housing data to produce estimates. The state numbers are computed by taking the housing data and averaging it with a second "regression analysis" estimate that uses population indicators such as employment data, school enrollment and utility hookups.

Perrigo said there usually is not much difference between the two figures. But last year the regression estimate for Las Vegas was 28,000 lower than the housing data, and that difference grew to 87,000 this year.

Perrigo blames it on a flaw in Hardcastle's statistical model and said statisticians he has talked to are prepared to back up that claim.

"We've had a couple of experts evaluate this, and they have unanimously said it doesn't make sense," Perrigo said.

But Hardcastle blames the discrepancy in part on the difficulty of getting reliable numbers.

"The problem is finding good data available over a long period of time," he said, adding that it's the first time since he took the demographer's job three years ago that so many governments have appealed his findings.

No matter who is right, it's clear that population growth in Southern Nevada has slowed from its torrid pace of the past decade.

Hardcastle's population numbers for Clark County dovetail with U.S. Census Bureau estimates released this month that showed the state's population growing at a 3.6 percent clip in the year ending July 1.

That's enough to keep Nevada as the nation's fastest growing state, but it's well below Clark County's 6.5 percent growth rate between April 2000 and July 2001.

"Our growth is huge in comparison to the national growth," said Keith Schwer, economics professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. "Having said that, it's weak by historical standards in Southern Nevada."

The latest figures are the first Southern Nevada population estimates that encompass the period around the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

Schwer said the economic downturn that followed the terrorist attacks and a lack of new megaresorts being built on the Strip might have contributed to the slowdown.

"If you're not adding rooms, you're not adding jobs," Schwer said. "For those people moving here for economic reasons, there aren't as many jobs being created."

Perrigo said the appeals process has the potential to affect more than local budgets, which get part of their revenue from the state through a formula that takes population and growth into account.

Business investment also could be affected, he said, because companies use demographic data to help determine where they should invest in new stores or equipment.

"It goes way beyond whether the city will be treated fairly in terms of revenue distribution," he said.

If the statistical model isn't changed, Perrigo worries that the discrepancy between state and local population estimates will only grow until the next official census is conducted in 2010.

"That's why we're spending so much time and energy making sure we get it right now," Perrigo said. "This is the time to figure out exactly what's going on."