Friday, October 25, 2002
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Poll suggests negatives mount against Herrera

A poll taken after Democratic congressional candidate Dario Herrera pledged to run a positive campaign shows that 48 percent of those asked have a negative opinion of him, and that he trails GOP rival Jon Porter by 12 percentage points.

"Herrera's chances of winning are very slim," pollster Brad Coker said Thursday. As for Herrera's 48 percent unfavorable rating, Coker said, "I've seen worse, but most of those people are in jail."

Even unpopular incumbents seldom see unfavorable ratings in the 40 percent range, he said.

Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., said it appeared ads targeting Herrera on ethical issues are having more impact than ads blasting Porter for his stands on issues such as Social Security.

Porter leads Herrera 46 percent to 34 percent, very close to the 11-point spread in an August poll when Porter led 44-33.

Some of the voters are turning to minor-party candidates in the 3rd Congressional District. Independent American Dick Odell has 5 percent of the vote; independent Pete O'Neil took 4 percent; and Libertarian Neil Scott has less than 1 percent. Eleven percent of those polled remained undecided.

Despite his 12-point lead 12 days before Election Day, Porter said he and his campaign are working hard to get people to the polls. "I've never worked as hard in my life," he said, vowing not to let up. "Twelve days is a lifetime in the political process."

Herrera said numbers from the polls, conducted for the Review-Journal and its online affiliate, reviewjournal.com, "just don't fit with the response I get at the door."

The campaigns and their parties each have aired more than $2 million in ads. Herrera's unfavorable rating has risen 31 points, from its 17 percent level just before the September primary. Porter's negatives are now at 20 percent, an increase from the 8 percent he held in the August poll.

Herrera announced Oct. 18 that he would stick to a positive campaign until Election Day.

He also gave out his cell phone number, which he said has resulted in about 150 calls a day. "Maybe 10 percent are bad. The rest are people expressing support, asking for yard signs and asking questions about where I stand on issues," Herrera said.

The poll of 305 probable voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 6 percentage points, was taken Monday through Wednesday.

Porter's campaign manager Mike Slanker said the Review-Journal poll results are similar to those gathered by the campaign, which for the past three weeks had shown Herrera's negatives in the 50 percent range.

He said he believes the difference between each man's negatives "is simple. We have refuted and responded to every single ridiculous attack ad." Herrera, he said, hasn't explained his acceptance of a no-bid Housing Authority contract or a vote he made on a billboard ordinance when his wife was a consultant for the industry.

Slanker said it was "a fatal mistake" for Herrera not to respond.

Herrera and the Democrats have spent about $2.2 million on television ads, while Porter and the Republicans spent an estimated $2.7 million, Slanker said.

"If our responses hadn't worked, our negatives would have been as high as his," Slanker said.

While the Democrats are relying on get-out-the-vote efforts, Slanker said the tracking of early voting shows that 4 percent to 8 percent more Republicans than Democrats are voting each day in the congressional district. Democrats say those figures are high.

Herrera spokeswoman Elizabeth Alexander challenged those numbers, saying the GOP had a 7 percent advantage on Monday, but that had dropped to 2.4 percent Wednesday. On average, she said, 4.4 percent more Republicans have voted in the district.

That doesn't worry Herrera, who said, "Republicans traditionally turn out earlier while Democrats wait until Election Day."

Herrera said he's not spending money on polling but is putting his efforts into grass-roots work.

The candidates debate at 9 p.m. today on KLVX-TV, Channel 10, and have a final televised appearance Tuesday on Las Vegas One's cable television program "Face to Face" with Jon Ralston.