Wednesday, December 10, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Poll shows Reid far ahead of challenger

Bush favored by 50 percent of voters in state

A statewide poll of likely voters shows Harry Reid with a sizeable lead over his Republican opponent and, the Democratic pollster says, suggests President Bush can be beaten.

The survey of 613 voters, released today, was conducted from Nov. 30 to Dec. 3 by The Southwest Group.

The poll pits Reid, D-Nev., against the only announced Republican candidate for the seat, Richard Ziser.

Reid would get 56 percent of vote, compared to 29 percent for Ziser. The remaining voters surveyed said they were undecided.

"Harry Reid has been a fairly partisan Democrat in Washington and to be 27 points ahead at this stage in the game suggests he's not only strong, but he's got coattails," said pollster Billy Rogers.

On the presidential question, 50 percent of voters would opt for Bush, compared to 34 percent for whoever becomes the Democratic nominee. Eleven percent were undecided, and the rest split their vote between the Libertarian and Green party candidates.

"I think it's a good number for him (Bush)," said Sig Rogich, a Republican consultant and longtime friend of the Bush family. "Keep in mind that the campaign has not really started for the president yet.

"All he's had for the past 10 months is any of 10 Democratic candidates criticizing him."

Rogers, a Democrat who ran the unsuccessful 2002 campaign to legalize possession of up to three ounces of marijuana in Nevada, also asked voters to identify the top priority for state lawmakers. Respondents could choose from seven issues, but could only select one.

Increasing education funding got 36 percent of the vote, cutting taxes got 22 percent and fighting a nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain got 13 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The question about Reid's race shows the senator leading Ziser in Clark County 59 percent to 29 percent, and in Washoe County by an even greater margin, 64 percent to 21 percent. Ziser wins in rural Nevada, 44 percent to 34 percent, with 22 percent undecided.

"For not having done a whole lot of campaigning, that's actually a pretty decent number," Ziser said of his showing. "Once we start campaigning, we'll chip away at those numbers quite a bit."

Among Democrats, Reid beats Ziser 81 percent to 10 percent. Reid also has 31 percent of the Republican vote, compared to 50 percent for Ziser.

Reid's campaign manager, Sean Sinclair, points to those numbers as indication that Reid is on track to win.

"It shows that he has support across the state, across the aisle that's pretty deep," Sinclair said.

The question about the presidential race shows Bush with 80 percent of the Republican vote, 26 percent of the Democratic vote and 42 percent of the nonpartisan vote.

"Those numbers reflect what we're seeing in other polls in other states," Rogich said of Bush. "It indicates the president's ability to broaden the base from traditional Republicans."

Rogers said he plans to conduct polling every three months until the election, and that he believes Reid is a "solidifying force" for Democrats who will help a Democratic presidential nominee.

"Bush should not be hovering around 50 percent," Rogers said. "He can be beaten."