Saturday, January 11, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
NOVEMBER STATISTICS: Gaming win increases slightly
Governor calls figures bleak
By JEFF SIMPSON
GAMING WIRE
The monthly state gaming revenue reports could come with a warning label.
"Caution!" the label could exclaim. "May induce whiplash."
November's numbers, released Friday by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, are illustrative.
On the one side, the state's 342 casinos won $732.5 million, 1.5 percent more than the $721.5 million won in November 2001. Strip casinos fared even better, winning $372.5 million, 6.1 percent more than one year earlier.
But the flip side is gloomier, and more accurate, experts said.
Comparisons with the depressed business that followed the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks are deceptively rosy, and a two-year comparison shows the real trend, they say.
The statewide $732.5 million win was down 6 percent compared with the $779.6 million win in November 2000, and the Strip's $372.5 million haul was down 6.6 percent from $398.7 million.
"These numbers suggest that gaming activity is down in a stable environment," said Nevada Resort Association President Bill Bible, a former control board chairman and the state casino industry's top Carson City lobbyist.
The casino numbers also are not good news for state officials trying to plug a projected multimillion-dollar budget shortfall over the next two years.
Gov. Kenny Guinn released a statement reminding Nevadans that the November gaming win and the corresponding December tax collections are far behind the Economic Forum's projections.
Through the first six months of fiscal 2003, revenue collections are $21.2 million behind projections.
"The news is bleak when you consider we fell another $3.6 million behind where the Economic Forum projects us to be this month," Guinn noted.
Control board statistical analyst Frank Streshley said the November numbers also benefited from particularly good casino luck at baccarat, the high rollers' game of choice.
Strip baccarat tables won $37.2 million in November, a 240.2 percent jump from $15.5 million in November 2001.
"Excluding baccarat, the Strip would have been down 1.5 percent instead of up 6.1 percent," Streshley said.
Strip baccarat tables reported a big jump in hold percentage, to 30.5 percent from 9.2 percent. Streshley said 18 percent is an average baccarat hold.
"Last year was an extreme low, this year was an extreme high," he said.
Bible said the numbers prove the folly of the state's overreliance on gaming tax revenue.
"Without baccarat, November would have been a negative month, even with the easy comparison to last year," Bible said. "This shows how precarious the state's revenue system is if one of its primary revenue sources is driven by whether a couple of baccarat players win or lose."
The Strip blackjack numbers boosted table game winnings statewide, up 17.4 percent to $277.1 million. The amount won from slot players dropped 6.2 percent, to $451 million.
The control board also reported that:
• Downtown casinos won $50 million, down 5.5 percent.
• Laughlin casinos won $44.3 million, down 1.8 percent.
• Boulder Strip casinos won $45.2 million, down 3.6 percent.
