Tuesday, May 13, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

COLUMN: John L. Smith

Down the stretch, McDonald in trouble against long shot Moncrief

I try not to take my wife to the track.

She travels well and enjoys herself. And she understands that a day at the races is really just an excuse to sip umbrella drinks in the afternoon.

It's just that, well, she wins with staggering regularity without so much as an ounce of understanding of the nuances of the sport of kings.

It's pretty embarrassing, for it's unclear whether she knows which end of the animal eats. And yet, strict adherence to her theory, pick the lightest jockey "with the prettiest color uniform" on the strongest looking horse, is like money in the bank.

I, on the other hand, can read a Racing Form and have invested the cost of an Ivy League education on various thoroughbred theories. None of which has ever worked.

After a quarter-century of study, I could lose a one-horse race.

Which brings me to today's question: Given these facts, which of us would you listen to the next time you're at Del Mar?

The answer is, the one who knows her way to the pay window.

It doesn't matter whether you know a fetlock from a fettuccine noodle. It's the finish line that counts.

Think about that the next time someone mentions the City Council Ward 1 race between incumbent Michael McDonald and nurse Janet Moncrief. Had you been handicapping that race, McDonald would have been a prohibitive favorite. That is, until the April primary when Moncrief mopped the floor with him.

He entered as a two-term councilman with the sort of lucrative contacts that make six-figure fund-raising a breeze. He grew up in the neighborhood he represents, has sat on a dozen job-related boards, has made a Rolodex full of significant political allies.

Then there's the expert advice he receives. From multiple full-color mailers to a proliferation of yard signs, McDonald's presence is seen throughout the ward. He's spent many thousands on professional opinions, thousands more to get out the vote.

But here comes Moncrief, a political neophyte who hadn't bothered to register to vote until deciding to run for public office. She's still learning the issues that face the city and the neighborhoods she promises to protect and preserve. They are neighborhoods that, until recently, she hadn't lived in.

By her telling, she's lived at the local Kinko's, where she's photocopied her letters to voters. Her mailers arrive in black and white without bells or whistles.

With the exception of a large mobile billboard, I have yet to see a Moncrief-for-Council sign, much less the scores McDonald's allies have planted in their yards professing allegiance to their man. She's being helped by a small group of political fringe players, persons who only rarely find candidates willing to accept their assistance.

Conventional political wisdom dictates the race should have been over in April. Given his superior experience, money, organization and relative political sophistication, McDonald should have won in a walkover.

Instead, the public is on its way to tossing him out like yesterday's news and welcoming the newcomer to City Hall. With one exception, recent polls show her ahead and expanding her lead as the June election approaches. She's improving those margins without emerging as a policy wonk and despite last week's tepid revelation that she'd once been suspected of driving under the influence.

McDonald, meanwhile, suffers from a number of image maladies. Some self-inflicted, others heaped upon him by critics.

But something tells me that's not why he was beaten by a political blank slate in April, or why he'll have to run like Secretariat in June to keep his job.

The public respects nurses and Moncrief walks door to door in her scrubs. It could be something as simple as the voters growing tired of seeing McDonald's face and hearing his name, especially when that name is occasionally accompanied by the scent of scandal.

Without a late charge, McDonald will finish out of the money despite all the advantages. Moncrief will head to the winner's circle in spite of her campaign's shortcomings. And we'll be reminded that political science ain't science at all.

It's not how you play the game, but whether you win or lose.

John L. Smith's column appears Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Sunday. E-mail him at Smith@reviewjournal.com or call 383-0295.