Sunday, November 02, 2003
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Most Nevadans undecided in 2004 presidential race

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A vast majority of Nevadans are still undecided about whether they'll vote to re-elect George Bush president next year, according to a poll conducted for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com.

Just 23 percent of those surveyed statewide said they will vote for Bush regardless of his Democratic opponent, and 37 percent of Republicans in Clark County said they'd do the same.

Democrats were surprised by the numbers and suggested the president is losing his support base.

"I'm stunned," said Lindsey Jydstrup, director of the Legislative Democratic Caucus. "It's going to make it a lot easier to go to work on Monday."

But pollster Marvin Longabaugh, whose firm conducted the research, said the survey does not indicate a wavering of support for Bush, who won Nevada in 2000.

"This poll indicates to me that he's the odds-on favorite to win it," said Longabaugh, owner of Magellan Research.

One of the reasons Longabaugh, a registered Republican, is confident in Bush's electability is because of the way the five possible answers to the survey question were worded.

Respondents could choose to definitely vote for Bush or the Democratic nominee, or likely vote for either given the performance of the economy and developments in the war.

Lastly, respondents were given a choice to "evaluate all candidates, including those from third parties, and choose the candidate that best represents my views."

In Clark County, 41 percent of Democrats and 39 percent of Republicans chose that option. Statewide, 44 percent of the 601 Nevadans polled from Oct. 24-28 said they would continue to evaluate the candidates.

"If Republicans aren't happy with their president, where do they go?" he asked. "They're not going to go to the Democrats."

The survey, which has a margin of error of 4 percentage points, did not ask respondents whether they would vote for any of the nine specific Democratic candidates.

Statewide, 20 percent of respondents said they would vote for whichever Democrat runs against Bush. In Clark County, 35 percent of Democrats said they would vote for the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is.

In Washoe County, 37 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Bush. In rural Nevada, that number was 32 percent.

About 13 percent of Clark County Republicans surveyed agreed with the statement, "I will probably vote for President Bush, but a lot depends on what happens with the war and the economy." About 7 percent of Clark County Democrats surveyed said they would probably vote for the Democratic candidate, depending on the same national developments.

"Clearly the president is hemorrhaging in Nevada which may explain why he plans to visit Nevada for the first time during his administration," said Rebecca Lambe, executive director of the Nevada Democratic Party. "Nevada knows this administration is not serving its interests."

Lambe said she thought Nevada would end up voting Democratic and that the state would have an impact nationally in the race.

But Gov. Kenny Guinn said the poll results do not reflect his experiences as he speaks to groups across the state.

"I believe that he's in very good shape here with the Republicans," Guinn said. "I'm out all the time speaking to people and talking to them about our situation with the economy and I think his base is fine."

Tracey Schmitt, a spokeswoman for Bush-Cheney '04, said she believed the poll indicates the president continues to have support in the Silver State.

"We expect to be competitive in Nevada because of the president's leadership on issues," Schmitt said.

Schmitt also said the campaign is working to build a grass-roots network in Nevada to promote the president's re-election bid.

Guinn suggested Bush's numbers might not be higher because the public is paying more attention right now to the nine Democratic candidates.

"It's also very early," Guinn added.

Longabaugh said that although the economy and war may impact a voter's decision in next year's election, he didn't think the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain would have a significant impact. On that issue, Bush has been derided by Democrats, who consider hollow his promise before the 2000 election to rely on "sound science" in deciding whether to recommend Yucca Mountain as the nation's nuclear waste site.

"It's his race to lose as long as there are no disasters," Longabaugh said.

Political observers said the president's support in Nevada is also key to voter efforts down ticket.

Sean Sinclair, campaign manager for Democratic U.S. Sen. Harry Reid's re-election efforts, said he thinks the numbers should be a concern for the GOP.

"Any Republican running in the state of Nevada has got to be scared that the president of the United States is going to bring them down with them in the next election cycle," Sinclair said.