Sunday, February 29, 2004
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ACADEMY AWARDS: Who Will Win Golden Precious?

The finale of the `Lord of the Rings' trilogy strong contender in picture, director categories

Illustration by David Stroud. Faithful Hobbit companions Frodo (Elijah Wood), left, and Sam (Sean Astin) approach Mount Doom in best picture favorite "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King." In "The Cooler," old-school casino boss Shelly Kaplow (best supporting actor nominee Alec Baldwin), left, lays down the law to the sad-sack title character (William H. Macy). Lost on a Japanese TV talk show, Bob Harris (best actor nominee Bill Murray), right, struggles for understanding in "Lost in Translation," which also earned nods for best picture, director and original screenplay. In "Mystic River," up for six Oscars, detective Sean Devine (Kevin Bacon), left, discusses a murder case with childhood pal Jimmy Marcus (best actor nominee Sean Penn), center, and his wife Annabeth (Laura Linney), right. Sympathetic Nadi (best supporting actress nominee Shohreh Aghdashloo), left, tries to comfort a shattered Kathy (Jennifer Connelly) in "House of Sand and Fog."

Ready or not, here comes Oscar!

And we're not talking about the mayor of fabulous Las Vegas.

Even so, tonight's Oscar in the spotlight certainly qualifies as a reigning figure in another city slavishly devoted to flash and fantasy: Hollywood.

With the 76th annual Academy Awards pushed forward a full month from their customary date in late March, we've had much less hype to endure -- and much less opportunity to ponder the political currents that inevitably eddy around the annual Oscar campaign.

None of which, of course, can keep this indefatigable Oscar prognosticator from consulting the semitrusty crystal ball in hopes of separating the winners and the losers in six major categories.

As always, I balance my fearless predictions of the winners by confessing who I want to win. (Alas, seldom do the twain meet.)

Last year, I went four-for-six; this year, it's anybody's guess.

For now, however, it's mine. May I have the envelopes, please ...

Best picture

Prediction: "Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Pick: "Mystic River"

Bored of the "Rings"? You will be, during the long Oscar-night slog. Although it has no nominations in bellwether acting and cinematography categories, the third and final installment of the "Lord of the Rings" saga has two big factors in its favor. First: The two previous "Rings" chapters lost the big prize; perhaps Oscar voters were waiting for the big finale. Second, an even bigger factor: relatively weak best picture competition, with at least two of the nominees -- "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World" and "Seabiscuit" -- in the perennially popular lucky-to-be-nominated club. (Don't believe me? Check out this year's Terry Awards for some worthier alternatives.)

Given their historical reluctance to acknowledge science fiction and fantasy (from "King Kong" to "Star Wars," "2001: A Space Odyssey" to "E.T."), some Oscar voters may opt for the tragic doom-and-gloom of "Mystic River" or the slyly quirky charms of "Lost in Translation." If there's going to be an upset in this category, it'll be one of these two. The indie lover in me would love to see the little-movie-that-could, "Lost in Translation," knock off the big guys. The movie lover in me, however, gives the edge to "Mystic River's" primal, understated power.

Not that I expect, at the end of the evening, anything other than the "Lord of the Rings" troops clutching their gold-plated "precioussssss" and savoring their triumph -- of timing, as much as anything else.

Best actor

Prediction: Sean Penn, "Mystic River"

Pick: Ben Kingsley, "House of Sand and Fog" (with a whiskey toast to "Lost in Translation's" Bill Murray and a tip of the cocked hat to "Pirates of the Caribbean's" Johnny Depp)

Decks of cards have four aces. This Oscar category has five.

Short of a five-way tie, however, we've got some 'splainin' to do. First one out of contention: Ben Kingsley. Despite his emotionally shattering performance in "House of Sand and Fog," he has already won an Oscar, for 1982's "Gandhi." If "House of Sand and Fog" were a bigger success, he'd have a better chance. As it stands, it's somebody else's year.

As for Jude Law, the soulfully eloquent heart of "Cold Mountain" (and the one starring cast member who seems at home in the movie's Civil War setting), the movie's general lack of support and the category's keen competition make him an unlikely winner.

Two down, three to go. Depp anchors "Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl" with a perfect balance of dramatic authority and comedic flair. But we all know how much Oscar voters respect comedy. (Hint: not much.) So let's savor this mainstream breakthrough -- and wait for the day Depp finally wins the Oscar he has long deserved.

And then there were two. This may be the closest race of Oscar's big six, with Murray gaining on Penn, especially following his endearingly sardonic Golden Globes acceptance speech last month. But given Oscar's traditional indifference to comedy, plus Murray's general disdain for all things Hollywood, a victory for his wonderfully bittersweet performance in "Lost in Translation" -- an actor everyone thinks is too cool for the room and anguished by that sorry knowledge -- would still rank as a mild upset.

Besides, Penn delivered not one but two gut-wrenching portrayals last year: his nominated one as a vengeful father, both victim and villain, in "Mystic River," and an even more bone-chilling one as a dying-to-die math professor in "21 Grams." Combined with Penn's track record of past Oscar losses, it's a one-two punch that will be difficult for Oscar voters to ignore.

Best actress

Prediction: Charlize Theron, "Monster"

Pick: Charlize Theron, "Monster"

Another everyone's-a-winner category. In another year, Naomi Watts' emotionally overwhelming despair in "21 Grams" -- or Samantha Morton's almost wordless maternal eloquence in "In America" -- might have a better shot at taking home the brass ring. (Oops, I mean the gold statuette.)

Diane Keaton already has a Best Actress Oscar. Granted, it's more than a quarter-century old, but "Something's Gotta Give" proves Keaton has lost none of the comedic grace and beguiling vulnerability she displayed in 1977's Oscar-winning "Annie Hall."

And here's a cheer for Oscar voters who nominated "Whale Rider's" Keisha Castle-Hughes, now 13 years old, in the category where she belongs. Youngsters usually wind up stuck in the supporting categories, but if Castle-Hughes' remarkably restrained, undeniably moving performance as a Maori girl destined to lead her tribe doesn't qualify as a leading role, I don't know what does.

All of them, however, should prepare to shed a few tears and smile bravely for the camera, because this Oscar belongs to "Monster's" Charlize Theron. Beyond the usual Oscar-bait attributes -- notably the physical transformation from swan to ugly duckling and the fact that playing a hooker often leads to victory -- Theron's performance as serial killer Aileen Wuornos goes far beyond externals. Watching her create, then crack, Wuornos' hard-as-nails exterior to reveal the battered soul inside is the stuff Oscars are made of.

Best supporting actor

Prediction: Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"

Pick: Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"

This one seems easy to predict. After all, Tim Robbins is the only nominee from a best picture contender, indicating broad support. And his "Mystic River" performance -- a man haunted by childhood horrors -- merits the Oscar he's likely to win.

Despite a powerfully magnetic presence, "In America's" Djimon Hounsou emerges as more of a symbol than a character. "The Last Samurai's" quietly charismatic Ken Watanabe dominates rather than supports the movie's leading man. (If only the movie had focused on his character instead of Tom Cruise's ...)

If there's a dark horse in this category, it's all-aces Alec Baldwin as "The Cooler's" vividly vulgar old-school casino boss. Yet despite my vested Vegas rooting interest, my mind -- and heart -- keep returning to another battered, shattered soul: Benicio Del Toro's reformed drug addict in "21 Grams." Del Toro's almost always the highlight of any movie he's in, and "21 Grams" is no exception. But he already has one Oscar in this category, for 2000's "Traffic." So look for Robbins in the winner's circle tonight.

Best supporting actress

Prediction: Renée Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"

Pick: Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"

First, let's dispense with two contenders who already have a golden guy at home: "Mystic River's" warily devoted Marcia Gay Harden (who won in this category for 2000's "Pollock") and "thirteen's" world-weary Holly Hunter (a best actress honoree for 1993's "The Piano"). They're both remarkably effective -- and affecting. But Oscar likes to share the wealth.

If I had a ballot (sounds just like a folk song, doesn't it?), I'd vote for "Pieces of April's" Patricia Clarkson, who beautifully balances the caustic bravado -- and barely concealed terror -- of a cancer patient soldiering on. (She was equally terrific in "The Station Agent," and in last year's "Far From Heaven" and ...)

But this year's race is really between the hearty hillbilly humor of "Cold Mountain's" Renée Zellweger and the grave, heart-rending grace of "House of Sand and Fog's" Shohreh Aghdashloo. The Iranian-born Aghdashloo has been gaining ground steadily in this race, thanks to her inspiring personal story -- and her ineffably powerful performance. If the Oscars were in March, as usual, I'd pick Aghdashloo to win it all. Because they're tonight, I don't think she has quite enough momentum to triumph over Academy darling Zellweger's Granny Clampett act.

Best director

Prediction: Peter Jackson, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King"

Pick: Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River"

Leave it to the Academy's directors' branch to salute the frenetic flamboyance of "City of God's" Fernando Meirelles and the seafaring verisimilitude of Peter Weir's "Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World."

But this category traditionally goes hand-in-hand with the best picture contenders. And I seriously doubt Academy voters will deny Peter Jackson a salute for his endurance and daring in bringing the "Lord of the Rings" trilogy to the big screen with such rousing panache.

If they do, look for "Lost in Translation's" Sofia Coppola -- daughter of multiple Oscar-winner Francis Ford Coppola (and granddaughter of Oscar-winning composer Carmine Coppola) -- to extend the family's Academy franchise to a new generation.

Which leaves flinty Clint Eastwood, who already has two Oscars for 1992's "Unforgiven" -- one as its director, one as its producer. If it were up to me, he'd get another one this year. But, as we all know, it's not.