Tuesday, May 18, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

STEVE SEBELIUS: Election 2004: oh, it's on now

The speculation has ended, the rumors are over. Filing has closed, and we're off to Election 2004.

From the final list of candidates, a few things become apparent almost immediately.

First, U.S. Sen. Harry Reid is probably going to be re-elected with his largest percentage of votes ever. Given that Reid's biggest win thus far was his 51-40 victory over Republican Demar Dahl in 1992, that's not saying a lot. But Reid will face four opponents -- inevitable Republican nominee Richard Ziser as well as an Independent American, a Libertarian and a Natural Law Party member -- so scoring above 51 percent will still count as impressive.

Second, the biggest surprise in the congressional races isn't that a couple of ungrateful Democrats decided to file in the primary against U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley or that a trio of Democrats bothered to file against unbeatable U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons. It's the six-way Democratic primary in the 3rd Congressional District, where incumbent Republican Jon Porter has no primary opposition. You'd think after unsuccessfully searching high and low for a candidate for months, the Democrats could have simply settled on their last, best hope: former Park Place Chief Executive Officer Tom Gallagher. But no: When the end came, everybody wanted to be a candidate!

Third, at least one legislative race managed to produce a surprise -- in state Senate District 1, a race henceforth to be known as Shaffer vs. Schaefer vs. Shaffer. It seems Sharon Shaffer, wife of state Sen. Ray Shaffer, filed for her husband's seat and will run in a Democratic primary that also features Mike Schaefer, who continually runs against people with the same last name, hoping confusion will land him a public office. At least we know Sharon Shaffer didn't switch parties like her husband, who abandoned the Democrats and joined the Republicans before the 2003 Legislature. (It was a bad move, given that the district features 4,860 more Democrats than Republicans.)

But Sharon Shaffer's real purpose may be to defeat Democrat John Lee, the former assemblyman and unsuccessful state controller candidate. Beating Lee in the primary would allow Sharon Shaffer to throw her support to her husband in the general election, when it would be certain a Shaffer would continue to hold the seat. Unless, of course, Sharon Shaffer decides to actually challenge her husband, which could create some marital strife.

But the Shaffers don't really seem like the type to quarrel over politics. After all, they both took a nice Hawaiian cruise during the close of the special sessions following the 2003 Legislature, when most every other state lawmaker was working on the largest tax increase in state history.

Shaffer vs. Schaefer vs. Shaffer might be more fun to watch than the other hot legislative races, like Station Casinos vs. the Culinary union, vying to replace state Sen. Joe Neal in state Senate District 4. (They've cleverly disguised themselves in the persons of Cedric Crear and Steven Horsford, respectively.)

But there's no doubt it won't be as interesting as The Forces of the Establishment (i.e. state Sen. Ray Rawson) vs. The Maverick Republican (i.e. Assemblyman Bob Beers) fighting it out in the GOP primary for state Senate District 6. Perhaps the casino industry will be active in this contest?

Assembly District 13 is interesting less for the lopsided contest between incumbent Chad Christensen and Democratic challenger Justin Jones (the district leans Republican to the tune of 2,846 voters) than for the way Christensen's mistakes have made it a real race. Will anybody contribute to Christensen's campaign now that we've learned he uses donor money to purchase not just mailers and billboards but also burgers and burritos? And will that drop in donations give Jones an additional advantage?

The Clark County Commission has four seats up, three of them heated. Incumbent Mary Kincaid-Chauncey filed after all, despite being under federal indictment, which given the district's demographics means one of her four Democratic opponents will almost certainly be called "commissioner" following the September primary. And state Sen. Joe Neal decided to file against Commissioner Yvonne Atkinson Gates, with a campaign platform that includes banning any new casinos. Perhaps the casino industry will be active here, too?

But the most fun contest -- perhaps in the entire state -- has got to be Democratic Assemblyman David Goldwater's challenge to newly appointed Clark County Commissioner Lynette Boggs McDonald. Of the two, Boggs McDonald has the harder time, fending off a primary challenge from Tim Cory, who almost won the seat in 2002, and fighting an uphill battle against a 5,858-voter registration disadvantage. But Boggs McDonald is a tenacious, tested campaigner whom nobody should underestimate. And since both candidates have lengthy records to run on, the opposition research will start flying.

Let the fun begin.

Steve Sebelius is a Review-Journal political columnist. His column runs Tuesday, Thursday and Sunday. Reach him at 383-0283 or by e-mail at ssebelius@reviewjournal.com.