Wednesday, October 20, 2004
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Gallagher slips against Porter

Democrat's support drops from early poll as incumbent stays at 50 percent

Jon Porter Tom Gallagher Click image for enalrgement.

Former gaming executive Tom Gallagher has lost ground in his bid to unseat Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev., according to a new poll.

In a poll of 300 voters in the 3rd Congressional District, 50 percent said they would vote for Porter while 35 percent said they would vote for Gallagher, a Democrat.

Twelve percent remained undecided and 3 percent were listed as "other."

The survey was conducted for the Las Vegas Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research between Oct. 14 and 16. Forty-two percent of the people surveyed were Democrats; 41 percent were Republicans; and 17 percent were independents. The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

A mid-September survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research placed the margin at 51-40 for Porter.

"As long as Porter is over 50 (percent) he's fine. When you're looking at an incumbent you're always looking at where he is in regards to 50," said Brad Coker, managing director for Mason-Dixon.

Porter was pleased with the mid-October results while Gallagher downplayed the numbers, although both men said the race could tighten as the campaign enters its final days.

The contentious battle between President Bush and Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., is expected to drive many voters to the poll in the Third District, potentially swaying the Porter-Gallagher race one way or the other.

"The fact that there's such a strong (expected) turnout and polarization in the country, you don't really know what's going to happen until election day," Porter said. "There's still a lot of time; in politics two weeks is an eternity. The only poll that really matters is Nov. 2 , but we're really optimistic."

Gallagher, the former chief executive officer of Park Place Entertainment, now known as Caesars Entertainment, said his own polling figures show the race is much closer, and he figures the numbers will tighten as election day nears.

"With no disrespect to the (Review-Journal) our numbers show it's closing. Until the people have a chance to see us debate I think the polls are pretty much irrelevant," Gallagher said.

Porter recently withdrew from two previously scheduled debates. The candidates are scheduled to appear in televised debates on Thursday at 8 p.m. on KLVX-TV, Channel 10, and Sunday at 6 p.m. on KLAS-TV, Channel 8.

The Mason-Dixon figures for the Porter-Gallagher race also indicate that:

• 82 percent of the Republicans surveyed said they will vote for Porter, while 9 percent said they will vote for Gallagher.

• 63 percent of the Democrats surveyed said they are voting for Gallagher, while 19 percent said they will vote for Porter.

• 50 percent of the independents surveyed said they will vote for Porter. Twenty-seven percent said they will vote for Gallagher, with 17 percent remaining undecided.