Avenue Q" was set to open its doors to paying customers Saturday night, and soon we may have a better idea how this whole Broadway-to-Vegas thing is panning out.

Or not.

Honestly, the whole Broadway trend has been a lot tougher to get a grip on than the national publications would suggest.

If you remember your high school science, the problem is the lack of a control group. The marketing of Britney Spears aside, entertainment has never been an exact science. And a recap of Broadway-style musicals in Las Vegas suggests each title has too many of its own issues for a collective picture to become clear:

• "Chicago" -- Mandalay Bay, March 1999-Feb. 2000. Neither a total bellyflop nor a runaway hit. The musical arrived during a lull, after it had played out in bigger cities but before the hit movie revived interest in the title.

• "Notre Dame de Paris" -- Paris Las Vegas, Jan.-July, 2000. Deserved flop. The U.S. debut of a French hit suffered from horrible English lyrics, a frantic pace, the questionable transplant of the poor Hunchback to a "Mad Max" future, and a downbeat ending that, while faithful to Victor Hugo, didn't send 'em back to the slots with a smile on their faces.

• "Men Are From Mars, Women Are From Venus" -- Flamingo Las Vegas, Sept. 2000-July 2001. Decent effort, didn't catch on. A familiar title didn't create audiences for a pleasant musical loosely based on John Gray's writings. A big problem was no off-Strip development. The producer bore the full costs while kinks in content and advertising were ironed out too late.

• "Mamma Mia!" -- Mandalay Bay, Feb. 2003-present. Finally, the hit that opened the doors to more big titles. Not to rain on the parade, but the only concern here is whether the Las Vegas setting is even relevant. This 800-pound, disco-sequined gorilla draws repeat business wherever it goes, making comparisons to other titles difficult.

• "Saturday Night Fever" -- Sahara, June-Nov. 2004. Barely noticed. A low-budget condensation of a title with a hit-and-miss track record to begin with.

• "We Will Rock You" -- Paris Las Vegas, Aug. 2004-present. The verdict is still out on this one, which recently trimmed 30 minutes to pick up the pace. Because it's a U.S. premiere, no one can say if it would have done better elsewhere.

Collectively, about the only thing to emerge from these case histories is that new, unfamiliar titles lived or died alone. The coming "Hairspray," "Monty Python's Spamalot" and "The Phantom of the Opera" bring only pre-tested hits. A strength in numbers could collectively grow the market.

Otherwise, we trend-watchers may have to come to grips with the idea that, gasp, "Q" will live or die by its own merits.

Mike Weatherford's entertainment column appears Thursdays and Sundays. Contact him at 383-0288 or e-mail him at mweatherford@reviewjournal.com.