You have to expect talk about Michael Jackson making a long-term commitment to Las Vegas. But you don't have to believe it.

Las Vegas is built on big ideas, and there's some logic in imagining the dethroned King of Pop staging a spectacle that goes beyond Celine Dion's to reclaim his crown. He has always fancied the sort of gee-whiz production effects -- 3-D, monsters, UFOs, you name it -- that a customized venue on the Strip could offer him.

And he has history here, beyond running up big bills in his Mirage bungalow during the Steve Wynn era. Jackson actually worked Las Vegas stages as a youth, performing with the Jackson 5 in the early '70s. Sharing the backstage hallways of the old MGM Grand (now Bally's) led to an enduring friendship with Siegfried & Roy (in "Hallelujah Hollywood" at the time). He wrote and performed the theme for their spectacle at The Mirage when he was still on a credible plateau of pop stardom.

So you can understand why publications including USA Today and the Wall Street Journal would echo the idea of a Las Vegas residency. In some ways, it's a plausible scenario for the tarnished star to work his way out of as much as $450 million in debt and tax liabilities.

Trouble is, it's a two-sided proposition. Jackson has to want to perform here. And a casino with big money would have to want him here.

Begin to look at these conditions, especially the latter, and the idea edges closer to Siegfried & Roy's mechanical dragon in fantasyland.

Las Vegas businessman Jack Wishna grabbed headlines this week with a press release that stated, "America loves a comeback story and what better plateau to showcase such a comeback" than the new hotel Frontier owner Phil Ruffin plans to build on the site.

But on the phone last week, even Wishna was quick to backpedal. "We're not actively pursuing Michael Jackson right now," he says, but taking a "wait-and-see approach."

Ruffin "asked me a year ago to help identify a lure for the property," Wishna says. "The reality is (Jackson) was on a short list prior to the trial," but there has been "no communication since the trial."

Wynn Las Vegas spokeswoman Denise Randazzo last week reaffirmed an earlier statement: "Wynn Las Vegas is not in discussion with Michael Jackson or his people." John Meglen, president of AEG Live -- which oversees the Dion and Elton John shows at Caesars Palace -- had no comment on the issue.

"So many difficult questions would have to be answered," says Richard Sturm, MGM Mirage's president of entertainment and sports.

Indeed. The big question floated outside Las Vegas is whether Jackson is damaged goods. Has his U.S. appeal faded to the level of a sideshow spectacle, leaving a Las Vegas show to be supported more by overseas tourists?

But there's an equally important issue for casino buyers: Would Jackson want to work that hard? Can someone who had to be dragged in pajamas to his own trial be trusted with a multimillion-dollar commitment to a serious work schedule?

Forget a casual, back-to-basics approach. Jackson could make more money with a few arena shows in Asia than he could with a periodic, Elton John-type commitment to the Strip. No, it would have to be a big venue with a big ticket price, and lots of production value to pump up that sideshow appeal.

And for commitments large and small, casinos could court many stars -- Rod Stewart, Cher, even poor Billy Joel -- who have more stable and less-tainted reputations.

"It's a very, very, risky situation," Sturm says. "Nobody's going to have the answer until somebody does it."

On the other hand, nobody has to decide tomorrow. As Wishna says, the time it would take to build a new Frontier affords "a window of opportunity to assess if he gets his life back together and focuses on his music."

By then, the answer would be self-evident. Or the question moot.

Mike Weatherford's entertainment column appears Thursdays and Sundays. Contact him at 383-0288 or e-mail him at mweatherford@reviewjournal.com.