Saturday, May 21, 2005
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Gibbons comes out on top in poll of state voters

Congressman beats by double digits any opponents in race for governor

Click image for enlargement. Click image for enlargement. Jim Gibbons Lorraine Hunt Dina Titus Bob Beers Richard Perkins

Republican Rep. Jim Gibbons has both the highest name recognition and the best chance to be Nevada's next governor, according to a poll of statewide voters.

Gibbons trounces potential Republican primary opponents and beats both likely Democratic candidates by double digits, according to the survey of 625 Nevada voters commissioned by the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com.

Voters were polled May 12-14 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., based in Washington, D.C. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. For the Republican and Democratic subgroup questions, the margin is 6 percentage points.

On the high end of the scale, Gibbons was recognized by 92 percent of voters, compared with 41 percent of voters who recognized Democrat Richard Perkins, the Assembly speaker.

The 273 Republican voters surveyed put Gibbons way ahead of Lt. Gov. Lorraine Hunt, a declared candidate, and state Sen. Bob Beers of Las Vegas, who is considering a bid. Gibbons would get 60 percent of the vote in a GOP primary, compared with 13 percent for Hunt and 10 percent for Beers.

"I would say it's just insurmountable for Lorraine Hunt and Bob Beers," said Eric Herzik, a Republican and political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "I would be seriously re-assessing my next office choice if I were either one of them."

Robert Uithoven, spokesman for Gibbons' gubernatorial exploratory committee, said he felt voters shared the congressman's message of tax restraint and education -- two areas for which Gibbons has successfully led ballot initiatives.

"Clearly the leadership that Jim Gibbons has demonstrated for the state of Nevada, both as a state legislator and congressman, has earned him the support reflected in these numbers," Uithoven said.

Pollster Brad Coker said Gibbons is "the early front-runner."

The 277 registered Democrats surveyed gave Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus the edge over Perkins in a Democratic primary, 31 percent to 16 percent. The majority of Democrats, 53 percent, were undecided. Titus was also better known among Democrats, with nearly half not recognizing Perkins.

"I have always thought I could get the base in the primary," said Titus, D-Las Vegas. "I think it's also good for showing that I am as competitive as Perkins in the general."

Voters gave Gibbons a 12-point lead over Titus in a prospective general election matchup, compared with a 15-point lead over Perkins. The fifth-term congressman does not, however, have a majority of the vote against either Democratic candidate.

Perkins said he is not worried about a primary with Titus, arguing "this is about a general election."

"I've always been somebody whose style is to work below the radar, to get things done and not to grab headlines," he said. "Jim Gibbons' numbers will continue to drop, and the more voters learn about me and what I stand for, my numbers will improve."

David Damore, a registered Democrat and political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said Perkins' strategy thus far "is not working out for him."

"Titus has really turned it around," Damore said, referring to past polls in which she had lower name recognition. "This may make for a very interesting Democratic primary."

Coker said that as a woman, Titus will have advantages in the Democratic primary, but the pollster added, "Perkins can change those numbers real fast by spending a little money. It's not a take-it-to-the-bank lead."

Perkins and Gibbons will have the largest war chests for the race.

The speaker has been seeking commitments for the race for two years. Gibbons, meanwhile, recently raised $125,000 for his campaign at an event hosted by Venetian executive Bill Weidner. Gibbons has also been attending fund-raisers while Perkins, Titus, Hunt and Beers are prohibited from accepting contributions during the legislative session.

Hunt, who has won two statewide elections, said she is not worried about the GOP primary numbers because "Jim has been campaigning constantly for over two years for different elections, and I haven't even been on a billboard since 2002."

"We're going to be working hard and campaigning once the session ends," said Hunt, who presides over the state Senate as president. "My point is, we have a long way to go. I intend to run for governor, and I intend to win."

Beers, who is exploring the race, said he was "flattered to be included" in the poll.

"I'm also encouraged to see that if I were a gambling man, I'd have to bet on a Republican governor of some sort," he said.

In addition to Gibbons winning both potential general election matchups, Hunt would narrowly defeat Titus and Perkins, and Beers would be within striking distance of either Democrat.