Ethan Ross, 2 and his mother, Michelle Clark, check out a 6-foot air-blown snow globe at Wal-Mart in Henderson on Tuesday. Photo by ISAAC BREKKEN/REVIEW-JOURNAL An Amerada Hess Corp. fuel truck and a taxi travel Tuesday on Broadway in New York. An analyst says home heating costs, more than gasoline prices, may stall retail sales this holiday season. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

When it comes to shopping for the holidays, history shows Americans' hearts are closely connected to their purses and wallets.

And as disaster-related despair and household economic concerns continue to upset consumers nationwide, U.S. retailers could face a surprisingly chilly reception over the 81 days between now and Christmas, industry experts said.

A pair of recent sales forecasts show this year's domestic holiday spending will grow anywhere from 5 percent to 7 percent from last year's nearly $415 billion total.

But that expansion could be dampened by shoppers' responses to rising fuel costs, the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and potentially early winter weather in some parts of the country.

"We're much more accurate at predicting annual retail sales than holiday (sales) because (holiday buying) is much more emotional," said Jay McIntosh, a Chicago analyst who monitors retail and consumer products for Ernst & Young.

And this year, consumer emotions seem particularly volatile.

McIntosh said demand for luxury items should be strong, though retailers have recently expressed concern that some shoppers might feel it's inappropriate to splurge because of recent hurricane damage to the Gulf Coast.

"(Retailers) have to hope that ... by the time the holiday season rolls around, the images will be of people rebuilding their houses, not standing on top of them" waiting to be rescued, McIntosh said.

Still, sales could get a boost if government and insurance aid packages are delivered before the holidays, which would indirectly inject much-needed sales dollars to retailers still struggling to overcome the recent disasters.

Fuel costs are also a big consumer concern this year. Discount stores such as Wal-Mart and Target will likely implement traditional holiday markdowns earlier than in years past to capture early sales from low-income shoppers who may be most at risk to fuel's economic pinch, financial experts said.

That pinch could further extend to middle-income consumers should cold November weather produce high heating bills for homeowners.

"That's one of the big X factors," McIntosh said. "Heating costs, more than gasoline costs, could have a bigger impact (on holiday shopping) because it's less discretionary."

Heating bills also shock consumers with "one big blow," whereas the psychological effects of high gasoline prices are reduced because they're spread over multiple purchases, he added.

If crude oil prices remain higher than $50 per barrel, McIntosh said retailers will face a long-term battle to capture consumers' reduced supply of disposable income, "But I'm not sure enough is going to happen between now and (Christmas) for it to hurt holiday sales."

Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist of Troy, Mich.-based LaSalle Bank, has also questioned at what point home heating costs will become a hardship for U.S. consumers. He believes problems could hit home in time for the holidays.

"We don't come face to face with natural-gas prices until the winter season, and that day is coming," Tannenbaum said Tuesday. "The concern is that we're going to be getting those first bills for heating at the same time merchants are hoping that we'll be marching into malls in the mood to spend freely. That intersection is a real risk for the economy and a real risk for the holiday season."

Tannenbaum joked many Americans might need a defibrillator when they open their heating bills this winter because,

"It's going to be real gut shot." Even those who live in warmer climates could be affected, he added, because electricity is often generated using natural gas.

The National Retail Federation, a Washington-based trade group, released its holiday sales forecast in late September. It expects U.S. consumers to spend $435.3 billion this year, up 5 percent from last year's $414.7 billion.

Chief Economist Rosalind Wells also said the effects of Katrina and high fuel prices have generally reduced consumers confidence and disposable incomes.

Still, strong sales in this year's second and third quarters suggests holiday buyers won't completely resemble Ebenezer Scrooge this year.

Most major U.S. retailers have not released their holiday forecasts, but Wal-Mart spokeswoman Karen Burk said Tuesday the Bentonville, Ark.-based giant is confident shoppers will turn out in the weeks to come.

"As long as we focus on delivering value to our customers, it should be a good holiday season," said Burk.

McIntosh's findings were developed using a proprietary model that mixes current economic projections with actual government data tracing back nearly 15 years. When the federal government releases actual economic data later this month, Ernst & Young will update its model and issue a revised sales forecast in early November.