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Aug. 09, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


BILL ROBERTS: For rural Nevadans, voting is a mandate

Not long ago, mention was made here of the faux pas by the husband/wife team of Gibbons and Gibbons -- you know, the one running for governor and the other running for Congress to replace the one who is running for governor. Most Las Vegans will recognize the candidacy of Rep. Jim Gibbons for governor, but few will have the opportunity to vote for or against Dawn Gibbons in the 2nd Congressional District's Republican primary.

A question was posed to me recently: "Are rural Nevadans loyal to their congressman of 10 years, or are they open to other gubernatorial candidates?" The answers are probably yes and yes.

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Yes, they are loyal to Jim Gibbons and probably will carry him to an easy victory in next week's Republican primary. But by the time November's general election arrives, they may be open to his opponent. While those two answers are speculation, Nevada voting patterns are not.

Using the 2004 primary election as a benchmark, voting trends would seem to support Jim Gibbons at this point. Consider:

The highest turnouts among either party's voters was by Republicans in rural Nevada. While only 27.53 percent of Clark County registered voters cast ballots, their Republican counterparts in rural Nevada did much better -- 68.09 percent in Eureka County, 62.08 percent in Pershing County, 60.34 percent in Mineral County, 48.82 percent in Douglas County, 46.23 percent in Humboldt County, 42.07 percent in Lincoln County.

These Republican voters turned out in high numbers even though their most tantalizing choice on the ballot was in the U.S. Senate primary to pick among seven largely no-name candidates to decide who would be general election fodder for Democratic Sen. Harry Reid.

In the November election, they packed the booths to the tune of 92.04 percent turnout in Douglas County and a low of 65.90 percent in Esmeralda County among the rurals. This gave GOP (Gobs O' Pork) Jim an overwhelming victory over Angie G. Cochran, 66.54 percent to 27.91 percent -- a margin of more than 100,000 votes.

While running statewide, rather than in a congressional district, even Reid could manage "only" 61.05 percent of the vote against an outmanned, outspent and helpless GOP opponent.

Do these numbers suggest that Republican contenders Bob Beers and Lorraine Hunt stand no chance against Gibbons? Hardly, but they tell a story that has been repeated election after election in recent times:

Rural Republicans will take their mandate to vote seriously and will turn out in much larger numbers than their city-dwelling counterparts of either party. And when they do, they probably will hold the line for their known quantity (Gibbons) rather than take a chance on someone else.

Could this change before the general election -- i.e., will they be open to other candidates? Possibly, depending on whom that candidate is and what goes on during the 12 weeks leading up to Nov. 7 (our new, extra-long run to the general).

Rural voters will wait to see if the Democratic nominee spends five minutes in time or $5 in advertising in rural Nevada or if he or she gives away most of the 100,000 votes to Gibbons to concentrate on the 900,000 in Clark and Washoe counties. What the Democratic contender does may well depend on an assumption that the rurals belong to Gibbons. In fact, they may be his to lose.

Despite those who pledge "the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth" that Nevada is a "red" state, rural Nevadans, for their part, are known to turn things upside down from time to time.

Nevada Politics 101 includes many examples of the rurals being on the winning team. Like 1972, when Nevada was reddish-blue or bluish-red and a contentious Democratic primary for the state's only congressional seat left Jim Bilbray standing over longtime incumbent Rep. Walter Baring. That November, many rural voters swung with the GOP winner, David Towell, a little-known real estate agent from Gardnerville.

Finally, if you think all the fun races are in the big city, you might want to keep your eye just over the county line. Nye County voters will be choosing between incumbent Sheriff Tony DeMeo, former sheriff Wade Lieseke and others to decide two finalists. Odds are that DeMeo and Lieseke will advance and things will get pretty hot before Election Day.

The same situation exists up north in Eureka County, where incumbent Sheriff Larry Etter is facing former sheriff Ken Jones. Add 28-year Nevada Highway Patrol trooper Randy Rowley to the mix and you have a great primary.

More spice: incumbent Eureka County Commissioner David Pastorino vs. seven-term Assessor Jim Ithurralde, who retired as tax man and now wants a new post.

You gotta love those rural primaries.

Bill Roberts is a veteran journalist in Tonopah. His column appears Wednesday. Contact him at broberts@reviewjournal.com.


BILL ROBERTS
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