July's housing numbers do not signal a bursting of the bubble in Las Vegas, nor is the market as depressed as preliminary reports have suggested, a local analyst said Tuesday.

Dennis Smith, president of Home Builders Research, counted 2,869 recorded new home sales in July, compared with 3,071 sales in the same month a year ago. The year-to-date total of 21,545 is up 6.1 percent from a year ago. The median price of a new home in July rose 11.9 percent to $324,517.

The slowdown is really being felt on the resale side, Smith said. Sales of existing homes in July totaled 3,512, down from 5,361 a year ago. For the year, resales have slid 22 percent to 26,817.

The median price of a recorded resale was $290,000, unchanged from the previous month and a 3.6 percent increase from a year ago.

Real estate professionals point to a record inventory of 20,273 homes on the market as the reason why homes aren't selling as quickly and prices are being reduced in many neighborhoods.

"Can the housing market get much worse? Yes," Smith said. "Will it? Probably."

Another housing research firm revised its July numbers upward from a previous report. SalesTraq President Larry Murphy said his report failed to include all of the Clark County Assessor's files for new home closings in July. He attributed the misinformation to "human error."

He's now reporting 2,794 new home sales for the month and a median price of $337,272, substantially higher than the 1,808 sales and $299,152 price he quoted last week.

"I don't think the conclusions we reached were invalid, just overstated," Murphy said. "We are cooling off, but not as precipitously as 1,800 sales would say."

Smith said the "traditional new construction segment" of the market, excluding apartment conversions and high-rise condos, showed a median price of $335,315, up 5.5 percent from a year ago.

"It would be prudent to point out that these prices do not include the many incentives that are being offered by most builders," he said.

Values of the inducements will vary and the focus has changed from decorating upgrades and closing costs to financing, Smith said. Some of the larger builders are offering interest rate "buydowns," where the builder guarantees below-market interest rate, and no payments for six months to a year.

If an average value of 6 percent on the incentive packages were reflected in the price, the median for July would be in the range of $318,000, or less than 1 percent increase, Smith said. He speculated that the incentive factor is probably much higher, so "net" median prices are at or below what they were a year ago.

"Basically, the market is on the back side of the cycle," said Josh Seime, regional manager for Metrostudy. "When you start seeing a buildup of inventory, you know it's going to get competitive."

Seime said the base price of a single-family detached new home in Las Vegas, not including premiums, was $353,000 in the second quarter, the same as last year. Housing starts fell to 6,834 in the quarter, compared with 7,061 in the same period a year ago.

Attached housing such as condos and townhomes increased its market share in Las Vegas and production continues to increase for attached units, while detached production is declining as builders look to reduce their inventory, Seime said.

"Las Vegas is definitely its own market and has its own dynamics," he said. "The economy is generating organic growth, although the economy is not as solid as it has been for the last three quarters. That said, there's still demand out there. There is a disconnect between values and sales prices. People are having a hard time swallowing that."

The local housing market will rebound, but not to the pace documented in 2004, Smith said. Prices have to soften to move the excess resale inventory and the new construction market will struggle to return to the levels of demand seen in 2003, he said.

"But two words -- job growth -- would seem to assure that the long-term picture for the traditional housing market in Las Vegas is not dying," Smith said.

Annual job growth for Las Vegas was 5.6 percent in July, compared to 1.3 percent nationally.

Kurt Lehman of Realty One Group questioned recent comments from experts at the National Association of Realtors who predict the housing market will rebound because of pent-up buyer demand.

Forces acting against the market include flooded inventory levels, higher interest rates, greatly inflated prices and no accompanying increase in many occupational salaries, he said.

"The bottom may be still six months to a year out and the rebound will more resemble a barely discernible upward arc in a flat line," Lehman said.