Tail lights create streaks of light Wednesday night on Interstate 15 near downtown Las Vegas. The state foresees a funding shortfall for road projects, including a planned I-15 widening. Photo by Craig L. Moran.

Las Vegas Valley commuters can pay now for wider freeways and new roads or pay later in lost productivity and wasted gasoline while stuck in traffic, according to a study to be released today.

The study by the Reason Foundation, a libertarian think tank, projects that valley rush- hour commuting times will increase significantly in less than 25 years without major road improvements that would cost about as much in dollars as time wasted behind the wheel.

The group says planners are better off underwriting upgrades to heavily used roads rather than pursuing other pricey plans, such as mass transit, with limited or unproven appeal.

"We must prioritize and focus our transportation funding where it can do the most good. We know the vast majority of Americans need to drive cars and that truckers haul 80 to 90 percent of our economy's goods," Robert Poole, who led the study and is the foundation's transportation director, said in a summary.

"Unless we take significant action to add capacity where commuters have shown they want and need it, our economy and quality of life will take a pounding from congestion," Poole said.

The study ranks the Las Vegas area's roads as the nation's 10th most congested at rush hour in 2003, calculating that travel times were 39 percent longer during peak travel times than during off-peak hours.

If nothing is done to add new lanes, that difference between peak and off-peak travel times would worsen to 79 percent by 2030, about the same ratio facing Los Angeles commuters today, the study says.

The study does not provide travel times in minutes. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in 2003 the average one-way commute was almost 25 minutes in Las Vegas and 29 minutes in Los Angeles.

The study projects the cost of adding 688 new miles of freeway and arterial street lanes by 2030 at $1.4 billion, about $58 million per year, costing the average commuter $178 annually.

But the savings in efficiency to commuters -- who would have more time to work, shop and play, while putting less wear and tear on their cars -- would equal about $57 million per year.

"Contrary to conventional wisdom, it is possible for America to 'build out' of severe congestion, and it is relatively inexpensive to do so," David Hartgen, professor of transportation studies at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte and the study's lead author, said in a statement.

"The bottom line is that if we want to reduce congestion, or even simply maintain our current levels of traffic, we will need to seriously re-examine what is presently planned for our roads," Hartgen said.

Local road planners quibbled or were unfamiliar with some of the study's fine print but agreed with its premise. The Nevada Department of Transportation has been projecting a $3.8 billion shortfall in $13 billion worth of statewide road projects through 2015 deemed essential to prevent gridlock throughout the valley's freeway system by 2030.

"This doesn't come as a surprise to anybody. We all know the congestion is going to get worse without improvements," Jeff Fontaine, state transportation director, said Wednesday. Neither the Transportation Department nor the Regional Transportation Commission participated in the study.

"Congestion translates to time and money," Fontaine said. "From our perspective, the sooner we get these projects built, the sooner motorists and the public can realize the benefits."

Jacob Snow, the Transportation Commission's general manager, said: "The worst thing we can do is stop constructing roadways. It would be bad for congestion. It would be bad for air quality. It would be bad for the economy."

A task force appointed by Gov. Kenny Guinn is preparing a recommendation to fund future road work, which probably will involve some sort of tax increase. That recommendation is expected in September or October, with consideration by the Legislature next year.

Among projects sought for Southern Nevada are widenings of Interstate 15 throughout the valley and U.S. Highway 95 in the southeast and far northwest valley; improvements of Las Vegas Beltway interchanges at U.S. 95, I-15 and Summerlin Parkway; and construction of a U.S. Highway 93 bypass around Boulder City linking to the Hoover Dam bypass bridge that opens in 2008.

Snow supported that roster of work but dismissed the study's suggestion that mass transit might not be worth the cost. He said that simply adding lanes would not work on congested corridors like the Strip or Sahara Avenue, where there is no room to add lanes.

"You aren't able to add capacity in certain corridors. If you can't do that, you need to look at other alternatives. We're trying to focus our (mass) transit investment in those corridors," said Snow, who added that economic and technological factors could make mass transit more appealing than before.

"Three-dollar-a-gallon gas has proven very effective in getting people out of their cars in this community," Snow said. Citizens Area Transit has seen ridership grow around 12 percent this year, he said.

"The other way is to provide a faster service than you have with your automobile," Snow said, through services like the Metropolitan Area Express, an express bus line on Las Vegas Boulevard North that uses bus-only lanes and limited stops to bypass traffic and trim travel times.

The Transportation Commission plans an expansion of that system in the coming years, including a North Las Vegas-to-Henderson "regional fixed guideway" pegged at almost $1 billion. The project has yet to be funded.

While listing road capacity improvements as the most pressing need, Hartgen agreed that it's not the only solution, but that priority should be given to the plans with the biggest return on investment.

"Toll roads and variable-priced lanes, traffic signal-optimization, improved accident management, and -- where justified by ridership numbers -- better transit should all be part of our transportation solution mix. It is vital that all transportation projects be evaluated on cost effectiveness and hours of delay saved," Hartgen said.

Nevada does not have any toll roads or variable-priced lanes where commuters pay fees to use restricted lanes depending on traffic conditions and travel times, but they are options the governor's panel is considering.

Both Snow and Fontaine said they believe the study's $1.4 billion price tag for Southern Nevada road improvements is too low based on current economic conditions.

"For that amount (of work), you'd be looking at twice the dollars they're using," Snow said. "Asphalt is now more than 100 percent more expensive than about a year ago" amid rising oil prices and growing demand for construction services. "Concrete and steel are up 40 percent."

Fontaine said the $1.4 billion stated in the study might pay for one valley project.

County voters twice have ponied up for road improvements over the past 15 years in approving referendums on new taxes to pay for road work. Snow believes commuters would do so again.

"The real question to ask is, how much are we willing to be stuck in traffic?" he said.