Raising the minimum wage is a good idea, but the Nevada ballot measure to do so isn't, according to a new report commissioned by a coalition of business groups.
The report, written by local research firm Applied Analysis and being released today, argues that there are unintended consequences that voters may not know about embedded in the text of the popular Question 6, which would amend the Nevada Constitution to raise the minimum wage, initially to $6.15 an hour.
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Currently, the minimum wage in Nevada is the federally mandated minimum wage of $5.15 per hour.
"No one who is opposed to Question 6 is opposed to raising the minimum wage by $1. We all believe that needs to be done," said Jim Denton, a consultant to Nevadans Against Question 6, the business coalition that commissioned the report.
"But a lot of people have concerns about other elements of this, including whether it belongs in the constitution," Denton said.
The release of today's report represents the first strike by a newly formed group that is likely to face an uphill battle to counter Question 6's popularity.
The initiative, backed by Nevada's powerful labor unions, passed in 2004 with 68 percent of the vote statewide. Constitutional amendment initiatives must be approved by Nevada voters in two consecutive elections to take effect.
In a Review-Journal poll conducted earlier this month, 74 percent of those interviewed were in favor of Question 6. Twenty-two percent were against it, and only 4 percent were undecided.
Those in favor of the proposal say its potential effects are being distorted by those whose economic interests it threatens.
"Nevada is enjoying a prosperity, enjoying a boom that no one imagined," said Pilar Weiss, political director for the Culinary union, which supports the initiative. "This should be a community and a state where we want the majority of the population to be prosperous. We're talking about lifting up people who desperately need help or they're not going to make it."
There was no organized effort against the initiative two years ago. Denton said he didn't know why that was, but Nevadans Against Question 6 was planning an aggressive push this time around, including a paid media campaign beginning within the next month.
The "Nix Six" group has a few basic gripes with the initiative, according to the report. First, it says, Nevada's minimum wage wouldn't rise by just $1: It would be pegged to the federal minimum wage and increase with inflation.
Thus, the minimum wage in Nevada would increase every year by at least 3 percent or the rate of increase in the national consumer price index, whichever was greater.
The base Nevada minimum wage would also be $1 higher than the federal minimum wage, meaning that if Congress increased the minimum wage to $7.25, Nevada's wage would be $8.25, plus at least 3 percent a year. The new report calls that a massive increase that businesses couldn't afford.
A proposal to increase the federal minimum wage to $7.25 passed the U.S. House of Representatives, but Senate Democrats have blocked it because it also contains tax-cut provisions.
"By 2015, we could have a $4 difference between the federal minimum wage and Nevada's minimum wage," Applied Analysis principal Jeremy Aguero said. "A lot of people are surprised by the fact that there is an annual adjustment" in Question 6.
The report estimates that just 6 percent of hourly employees would be affected by a raise to $6.15, but 20 percent would be affected by a raise to $8.25.
The raise to $6.15 would cost $53 million, but the raise to $8.25 would cost the state's businesses $328 million, the report states.
The report notes that few Nevadans actually earn the minimum wage alone -- about half of 1 percent, or fewer than 6,000 -- although about 7,500 more earn the minimum wage plus other payments such as tips. This is cited as evidence that the Nevada job market is already doing a fine job paying workers more than the bare minimum.
But that doesn't mean Question 6 would have little economic effect, according to the report. It says there would be a "wage creep" effect that would create upward pressure on all lower-paid employees' wages.
"If someone's making $2 or $3 more than the minimum wage, and the minimum wage goes up, then what do you do for them?" Denton said.
According to the report, if "wage creep" bumps all employees making $10.15 per hour or less up by about a dollar, the cost to businesses will be $1.6 billion.
"You're setting something into motion that you just don't know where the end is," Aguero said.
The probable effects of these increased labor costs will be more than businesses can bear, the report states. They will probably respond by raising prices, laying off employees, reducing benefits and either closing altogether or relocating outside Nevada.
That could mean that, in the end, it's harder than ever for entry-level workers to find jobs here, the report says.
"The folks this initiative is most intended to help may actually be most likely to be its first victims," Aguero said.
Weiss said the criticisms of Question 6 are overblown. "A lot of thought and research was put into crafting Question 6," she said.
Including an inflation adjustment as part of the proposal is necessary so a new minimum doesn't have to be legislated every year or biennium, she said. And helping those who make the minimum is important no matter how few of them there are.
"Are we going to tell people working two minimum-wage jobs, 'Sorry, not enough people are as screwed as you?'" Weiss said. "People earning the minimum wage are predominantly women with children who are trying to get out of poverty, trying to return to the workforce."
The increase would also help those earning slightly more than the current minimum but less than $6.15 per hour, she noted.
Weiss argued that "wage creep" is a good thing because it will ensure that all those on the lowest end of the wage scale receive a boost. "We're talking about an increase at the strata of the wage scale of people who work the lowest paid jobs," she said.
Even if the federal minimum does increase, which hasn't happened in 10 years, Nevada should have a minimum that's slightly higher, Weiss said. "That speaks well of having people here not live in poverty," she said. "According to most studies, a true hourly living wage is $12 to $14 an hour."
And Weiss said she didn't understand the objections to enshrining the minimum wage in the Nevada Constitution.
"There's a real issue here about the value of work," she said. "It's important enough to be codified. We need to have these provisions embedded in the constitution."