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Jul. 20, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


20,060 PER DAY: Monorail ridership plunges

Passenger counts down nearly 30 percent in aftermath of fare increase in January

By OMAR SOFRADZIJA
REVIEW-JOURNAL


A rider goes through the turnstile Wednesday at the Sahara station of the Las Vegas Monorail. Ridership is down significantly this year.
Photo by K.M. Cannon.


Click image for enlargement.
Illustration by Mike Johnson.

The good news is that Las Vegas Monorail riders have found roomier trains as of late. The bad news is that's because there are far fewer riders on board than last year.

Ridership in the first half of 2006 plunged nearly 30 percent from already weak passenger counts last year, with the sustained turnstile slowdown following a fare hike at the start of this year. Base one-way fares are $5, up from $3 in 2005.

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"The extent of the fare increase has certainly dampened ridership. We'll see how it plays out through the remainder of the year," said Scott Trommer, an analyst with Fitch Ratings, a New York City-based credit rating firm that's been tracking the monorail. "The magnitude of the falloff was more than expected by (monorail) management."

Nonetheless, monorail officials hope that marketing and partnership initiatives now being rolled out will result in more crowded trains next year.

"Nothing happens overnight," said Ingrid Reisman, a monorail vice president. "Everything I'm working on today won't increase sales tomorrow. It will in a few months."

The $650 million, privately financed monorail has not turned a profit since opening in mid-2004 and establishing regular service late that year. It has seen its bond rating fall into "junk" status as a result, though deep cash reserves are expected to keep the monorail solvent into at least 2008.

The monorail averaged just 20,060 riders per day in the first six months of this year, down from 28,362 daily riders in the second half of last year and 27,877 passengers per day in the first six months of 2005, according to monorail statistics.

Last month, the system averaged 18,766 daily riders, the third month this year in which ridership counts failed to top the 20,000 mark.

Daily averages haven't been over 30,000 riders since August of last year, and the rail line has bettered the 30,000 mark in only four of the past 18 months.

Monorail officials had expected some sort of passenger dropoff, but hoped higher fares would result in greater daily revenues. That has happened, as the monorail collected $90,399 a day in fares, up about 8 percent from the second half of last year and almost 11 percent higher than in the first six months of 2005.

But farebox revenues are still well below the $123,000 a day that Fitch has indicated is needed for the rail line to break even, absent an influx of alternate revenue dollars.

With the monorail collecting $4.50 per passenger at the current rate, it would take more than 27,300 daily riders to break even. The actual amount collected is below the base one-way fare thanks to sales of bulk discount passes.

The monorail is believed to have lost around $20 million in 2005. When the system first opened in 2004, officials predicted eventually drawing 50,000 daily riders.

As in recent months, monorail officials have faith that marketing efforts now will result in more riders later. To date, those initiatives -- including a partnership with General Motors and its "The Drive" public test track, located at the base of the monorail's Sahara Hotel station, which opened earlier this year -- have not appeared to have had a positive effect on ridership.

"The focus is creating awareness and changing the perception of the system, and increasing ridership and revenue," Reisman said. "There was an excitement about the monorail when it opened (in 2004). That waned, and then became nonexistent."

Officials hope a bulk ticket sales program with upcoming conventions will boost ridership.

"Some of those contracts are for September, October, November shows," Reisman said. "I think really where we'll see a lot of progress will be in 2007. We'll see some in 2006. Everybody will be testing it out."

Also, guests at hotels hosting monorail stops will get rail line information when checking into their rooms and once insider their rooms, starting next month.

"We're presenting the monorail as one of the amenities of the property, which hasn't been done in the past," Reisman said. "My perception is the climate has changed in that there is interest, and our hotel partners see the value in helping us promote the monorail."

Fitch's Trommer was willing to give the monorail more time for those efforts to show tangible results.

"We are aware of management's efforts to try to boost ridership further," Trommer said. "Obviously, the sooner those positive effects from those programs (show), the better."

The monorail is seeking funding for a $500 million extension to McCarran International Airport and an $800 million loop behind the west side of the Strip, the former being seen as a surefire ridership magnet.

But whether it can gain additional funding without improving ridership, revenues and, in turn, its bond rating is questionable. Junk-grade bonds are a tough sell, according to Trommer.

Reisman said "we have a lot of interest from a lot of different parties in getting the system expanded to the airport and additional areas in the resort corridor. How that happens financially, that's yet to be determined. We have a lot of different options right now."

None of those current options include asking for federal or local taxpayer aid, Reisman said.

The existing bonds are insured against default. Though the bonds were issued through the state of Nevada, the state bears no liability for default.

The $5 fare didn't bother Monica Dryden, 25, of Cincinnati, who was in a group of three tourists who used the monorail on one leg of their trip from Bally's to the Stratosphere on Wednesday afternoon.

"Traffic was bad. We didn't want to take a taxi," Dryden said. "Five dollars, compared to a taxi fare, is OK."

As for the trip, "we liked it," Dryden said. "We're going to take it back to Bally's."

If there was any good news to be found regarding the monorail, it revolved around its operational record as of late.

The system has not lost any service days this year, and only three days in 2005, compared to spending 113 of 162 days shut down after initially opening in mid-2004.

The monorail was shut down for most of an evening earlier this month after a train struck a garbage can that had been thrown onto the track.

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