Click image for enlargement. Graphic by Mike Johnson. Western Sign and Flag sign installers Martin Frady, left, and Luis Herrera install a KB Home sign in February at the corner of Sunset Road and Hillside Pine Street. Both new-home permits and new-home sales posted solid increases in Southern Nevada in February. Photo by Clint Karlsen.

A seasonal slowdown in tourism-related categories brought the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators down to 132.68 in April, compared with 133.30 last month, a local economist said Friday.

Still, the monthly decline does not establish a trend, especially given that the early months of 2006 are being compared with previous periods of rapid expansion, said Bob Potts, assistant director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

The local index continues to forecast local economic growth that outpaces the U.S. index by 2 percent to 4 percent, Potts said.

It makes sense that numbers such as gaming revenue, gallons of gasoline sold and visitor volume would decline in February, the data month used for April's index, from January because there were three fewer days in the month, Potts said.

"You want to be careful with month-to-month changes. We know that grass grows in the summer but doesn't grow in the winter, so if you're comparing grass height in the summer to grass height in the winter, you're in trouble," Potts said.

Three of the index's categories were down from a year ago. Residential building permits dropped 3.2 percent to 3,015, residential permit valuation fell 8.7 percent to $345.8 million and commercial building permits were off 7.4 percent at 113. However, commercial permit valuation soared 59.1 percent to $106.2 million.

The index is a six-month forecast from the month of the data (February), based on a net-weighted average of 10 series after adjustments for seasonal variation.

The accompanying Review-Journal chart includes several of the index's categories, along with data such as new residents and employment and housing numbers, updated for the most recent month for which figures are available.

While the index dipped 0.4 percent from the previous period, it was up 1.7 percent from a year ago, when it stood at 130.18.

Gaming revenue grew 13.6 percent in February to nearly $870 million and convention attendance jumped 53 percent to 809,658. Another big gainer was taxable sales, up 11.2 percent to $2.73 billion.

Potts said he picks up anecdotal information about the local economy at events such as last week's Las Vegas Perspective, where people were talking about double-digit increases in housing prices compared with 2 percent to 3 percent rise in average household income.

"That's something we're going to have to deal with," he said. "But the (economic index) trend is the issue. If things start trending down, then we've got a problem."

One red flag in the economy is construction. A separate CBER Clark County Construction Index shows that activity peaked in fourth quarter 2005 and has backed off in recent months. The index gained more than 20 percent each month from September through December, then dropped to 15.6 percent and 11.9 percent in January and February, respectively.

Again, Potts noted, 11.9 percent year-over-year growth is very strong and there are indications this cycle, as with those in the past, will turn to stronger growth in the spring and summer months.