Click image for enlargement. Graphics by Mike Johnson. Click image for enlargement. Jim Gibbons Dina Titus

Despite a seemingly endless stream of news about accusations he attacked a local woman earlier this month, Rep. Jim Gibbons still would be voted Nevada's governor if the election were held today, according to a Review-Journal poll.

The statewide poll of 625 likely Nevada voters puts Gibbons, the Republican, 4 percentage points ahead of Democrat Dina Titus.

The poll's margin of error is 4 percentage points in either direction, meaning it's possible Gibbons and Titus are tied and equally possible he has an 8-point lead. The poll was conducted Thursday through Monday.

Eight percent of those interviewed were undecided, with another 8 percent choosing a minor-party candidate or none of the candidates.

The continuing scandal involving allegations Gibbons assaulted and threatened to rape Chrissy Mazzeo after meeting and drinking with her at a local bar essentially has cut Gibbons' lead in half, the pollster said.

A Review-Journal poll in September put Gibbons' lead at 9 points. That poll and the new poll were taken by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc.

"In a normal situation Gibbons would be winning this race," Mason-Dixon Managing Partner Brad Coker said. "Now it's not quite clear. This whole incident has definitely muddied the waters a little bit. If this story continues to produce new information, it could be trouble for him."

The poll asked respondents about the Mazzeo allegations and found that few voters of any persuasion believed Gibbons did attack Mazzeo, and fewer said the allegations are likely to switch their vote.

Fifteen percent said they believed the accusations were true, while 43 percent believed they were false and 42 percent couldn't be sure.

Five percent said the accusations would be the reason they would not vote for Gibbons, with most saying their opinion of the accusations served to reinforce the way they would have voted anyway. That is, 64 percent either were more determined than ever to vote against Gibbons or had dismissed the allegations and would still vote for him.

Not just the nature of the Mazzeo story, but the fact that it has continued to evolve, with near-daily major developments and multiple news conferences by all sides, has been damaging, Coker said.

"It's a credibility issue," Coker said. "It's hurt him with his base. It's hurt him with undecided voters. It's hurt him with swing voters."

The question, Coker said, is whether Gibbons is fatally wounded, and that might depend on what happens or does not happen on the Mazzeo front.

On Tuesday, Gibbons' lawyers and the media were awaiting the release of several hours of surveillance camera footage from the parking garage where Mazzeo alleges the attack happened. A judge ordered the footage, which Gibbons said will prove he is innocent, released on Tuesday morning.

Gibbons' version of the events of that night is that he walked Mazzeo up to, but not into, the garage, then caught her when she tripped and fell, after which she walked away.

The story continued to evolve while the poll was being taken, with news of the surfacing of the tapes coming out Sunday. But Coker said Gibbons' lead was about the same throughout the days of the poll.

The scandal has not been enough to put state Titus on top, Coker said. "Titus' biggest problem is still that her negatives are higher than her favorables and higher than Gibbons' negatives," he said.

Asked whether they recognized the candidates' names favorably or unfavorably, 41 percent saw Gibbons favorably, 35 percent unfavorably. Titus' respective numbers were 30 and 40.

Titus' camp said the numbers were evidence of a continued Gibbons decline that, in the end, would make Titus the winner.

"What we see in all the different polls is a trend in our direction," Titus spokeswoman Hilarie Grey said. "He continues to deteriorate by the day, and his media (advertising) advantage has disappeared."

Grey noted another independent national pollster's release of a survey on the race Tuesday. A poll conducted by Zogby Interactive for the Wall Street Journal put Titus ahead by less than 1 percentage point, with 47.5 percent to Gibbons' 46.6 percent.

Zogby's polls are conducted by an e-mail sample. Critics question their results, but the pollster contends the method's track record is solid. The latest Zogby poll was conducted Oct. 23 to Oct. 27 and has a 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

Gibbons' side said the fact that he was still ahead in the Review-Journal poll, with some of the electorate having already voted, was enough.

"Given the recent smear campaign and statewide news coverage of these allegations, we're heartened to maintain a lead," campaign manager Robert Uithoven said.

"We will win this race because we are confident that Republicans will turn out and that independents are starting to see through the false and negative attacks against Jim Gibbons in recent weeks," he added.

Uithoven said the campaign's internal polling showed similar results to the Review-Journal poll, but he refused to share the results.

Grey said the Titus campaign is not conducting its own polls.

Uithoven said skepticism by poll respondents about the allegations proves that "Nevada voters are fair-minded, and they're smart enough to see through these allegations."

University of Nevada, Reno, political scientist Eric Herzik said the accusations against Gibbons appear to have exhausted themselves.

"He's taken his hit on this," Herzik said. "If the story lingers any longer, there may even be a backlash in his favor," especially considering recent revelations Mazzeo might have been involved in a grift scheme with a former boyfriend.

"How much longer is it going to be, 'Hey, Jim, prove you're innocent'?" Herzik said. "Don't get me wrong, things could be better for him, but they could also be a whole lot worse, and Dina is running out of time to catch up."

Herzik guessed correctly that Titus would claim momentum in her direction. "But until you're on the upside of those numbers, you're still losing," he said.

The election, Herzik said, will depend on turnout. Titus has a solid lead in Clark County, 46 percent to Gibbons' 38 percent, while Gibbons has a strong lead in Washoe County, 49 percent to 35 percent. Gibbons' lead in the rural areas is a commanding one, 63 percent to 23 percent.

That reflects Northern Nevadans' skepticism toward what they see as a Las Vegas story -- Mazzeo works as a cocktail waitress on the Strip -- and loyalty to Gibbons, who they see as one of their own, Herzik said.

Gibbons has for 10 years represented rural and Northern Nevada in Congress.

Clark County has the state's population base and Democratic voter base, but its voters usually turn out in the smallest percentages, Herzik said.

"She's getting close to the margin she needs in Clark," Herzik said. "But Clark County historically has the lowest turnout of any county in the state."