Click image for enlargement. Graphic by Mike Johnson. Michael Douglas Cynthia "Dianne" Steel Nancy Becker Nancy Saitta

CARSON CITY -- Supreme Court Justice Nancy Becker could be in some trouble in her bid for re-election to another six-year term on the high court, according to a new poll commissioned by the Review-Journal.

Becker, who had a 26 percent to 13 percent lead over Clark County District Judge Nancy Saitta in a poll conducted a month ago, now is lagging behind her challenger by 5 percentage points, 26 percent to 31 percent, according to the telephone poll of 625 registered voters conducted Thursday through Monday by the Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

A large number of voters, 37 percent, remain undecided in the race.

Though the poll suggests a movement of voters towards Saitta, another incumbent running for re-election, Justice Michael Douglas, has pulled ahead of his challenger.

Douglas has taken a 16 percentage-point lead over Clark County Family Court Judge Cynthia "Dianne" Steel.

Douglas, who was 4 percentage points ahead of Steel in the late September poll, now has 36 percent, to 20 percent for Steel, with 39 percent undecided.

Mason-Dixon Managing Partner Brad Coker said judicial races are some of the toughest to predict. That's because the candidates are frequently unknown by many voters, and the races are non-partisan. Many voters will wait until the weekend before Election Day to decide who to vote for in such races, he said.

"Clearly there have been some changes in the races," Coker said. "There has been some advertising and some semblance of campaigns being run. You have to raise your visibility to change the numbers."

Becker has been on the defense in her re-election campaign for her part in two controversial Supreme Court decisions.

In 2003, she was one of six justices who ruled in Guinn v. Legislature that a constitutional mandate to fund education took precedence over a two-thirds vote requirement for lawmakers to raise taxes.

The Legislature did approve an $833 million tax increase by the two-thirds vote requirement, ending a deadlock, but the court decision was criticized as a form of judicial activism.

The Supreme Court in September reversed itself in its 2003 ruling in Guinn v. Legislature.

Becker is the first justice to run for re-election since the decision.

Becker also authored a decision in 2003 in an eminent domain case involving Las Vegas property owner Carol Pappas. The 5-2 ruling upheld the taking of Pappas' land for a parking garage for the Fremont Street Experience. The Pappas family settled with Las Vegas in 2004 for $4.5 million.

Saitta said she was "thrilled" by the numbers and would work to increase her support among the undecided voters through election day.

"I'm most pleased to see that negative ads aimed at my candidacy have not been successful," she said. "I feel my opponent has launched some baseless attack ads."

Saitta said she has run a campaign based on what she believes has been a shift by the court away from a proper interpretation of the state constitution.

"It's been a shift I'm not happy with," she said. "We haven't seen consistent, legally supportable decisions."

Saitta said the tax and eminent domain decisions are likely a factor in her level of voter support, but the issue is much broader.

"We need someone to carefully apply the law and support the constitution," she said. "That has been my message."

Becker said she has been running on her entire 20-year record of judicial experience and as a community leader.

"As people go to the polls, they will remember that record, and they will support me in my re-election," she said. "They will not be misled by false and misleading advertisements."

Becker said Saitta has run negative comments about her in ads, suggesting that she was responsible for the 2003 tax increase.

"It is the responsibility of the Legislature to raise taxes," she said.

The court has to make tough decisions, Becker said.

"We can't make decisions in favor of special interest groups," she said. "Special interest groups are funding the campaign against me."

Attorneys that specialize in eminent domain are big contributors to Saitta's campaign, Becker said.

She said she has ruled both for property owners and for the taxpayers who must pay for land taken through eminent domain in different cases. The court must make decisions based on the individual facts of a case, she said.

Douglas, who was appointed by Guinn to the court in March 2004, said he has been running television ads for the past several days to improve his name recognition with voters, which might account for some of the bump in his favor in the poll.

Those who have been involved in early voting over the past several days have been forced to take a look at the race and decide who to vote for, he said.

"There is no silver bullet for why people vote for one candidate or another," Douglas said. "Part of it is just getting your story out there."

Steel said she was surprised by the big change in the poll numbers in favor of Douglas.

"I've spoken to other people who indicated it might be a little closer than that," she said.

But Steel said she has not raised much money and cannot afford television advertising.

Douglas authored the recent ballot question decision that kept part of Question 2, the eminent domain measure known as PISTOL, on the ballot. He also was part of the unanimous decision taking the government spending control proposal, known as TASC, off the ballot. Becker concurred with Douglas' opinion in the PISTOL case.