Click image for enlargement. Graphic by Mike Johnson. "We're right where I thought we would be.'' REP. JON PORTER, R-NEV. "People ... don't want to be represented by someone who just goes along with President Bush.'' TESSA HAFEN, CHALLENGER

If you're an independent voter and undecided in the race between Republican Rep. Jon Porter and Democrat Tessa Hafen, you may well hold the key to who gets elected in the 3rd Congressional District, a new Review-Journal poll reveals.

Though Porter holds a 7-point lead, 46 percent to 39 percent, pollster Brad Coker stressed the importance of the 19 percent of independents who reported still being undecided.

"The independents are really the key to this district that is just about evenly split between Republicans and Democrats," said Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, was conducted for the Review-Journal, reviewjournal.com and KVBC-TV, Channel 3.

"This is a swing district where independents really rule the roost," he said. "Porter has won this seat because he won independents in the past. I wouldn't focus as much on Porter's 7-point spread as I would on 19 percent of independents still being undecided. The undecided tend to break for an incumbent's opponent."

The poll also found that if the race were held today 38 percent of independents would vote for Porter and 35 percent for Hafen.

Overall, 10 percent of voters were still found to be undecided in the poll conducted from Oct. 26 through Monday.

The race results were part of a statewide poll of 625 registered voters in Nevada. An oversampling of 400 voters in the district also was conducted.

Five percent of registered voters were split between Joshua Hansen of the Independent American Party and Joe Silvestri of the Libertarian Party. Porter said he was pleased with the poll's results.

"We're right where I thought we would be," he said Wednesday. "We've still got a lot of work to do."

Hafen said Wednesday that the poll "is pretty good news for us. We have to focus even more in these next few days on getting out the vote."

Had the poll not revealed that Hafen, the former press secretary for U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, is recognized unfavorably by 33 percent of registered voters (5 points higher than Porter), Coker said he would view Hafen's chances more favorably.

"If her negatives were half of what they are, I would bet that she wins," the pollster said. "Right now I would be less surprised if Porter won, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if he didn't."

David Damore, an associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, said the poll reveals that Porter is effectively using a larger campaign budget to raise questions about Hafen. According to the Federal Election Commission, Porter more than doubled the campaign funds raised by Hafen, $2.5 million to her $1.2 million.

"Though Porter has the same stance on illegal immigration that she does, his frequent TV ads against Hafen on immigration are having the desired negative effect," Damore said.

Porter, 51, recently spent $1.4 million on ads to carry through the election. Hafen, 30, is spending $450,000 in the homestretch.

The poll shows that while Porter leads Hafen among female voters -- 43 percent to 41 percent -- he holds a much larger margin among male voters, 51 percent to 33 percent.

"I think people overall are looking for experience," said Porter, a former Boulder City mayor, councilman and state representative.

Hafen, who has never held public office, said she expects the undecided independents to vote her way.

"People want a change," she said. "They don't want to be represented by someone who just goes along with President Bush."

Coker said that the fact that Porter has not been able to crack 50 percent in polls doesn't bode well for him.

"The biggest thing to look at now is that undecided independents tend to vote against Republicans," he said. "It wouldn't necessarily be anti-Porter as much as sending a message to Bush. But the fact that he has lower negatives than his opponent and more money may make the difference. The combination of those two things may squeak Porter back in there."