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Nov. 02, 2006
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


Heller lead in House race grows

Poll gives him 8-point edge in 2nd District

By ED VOGEL
REVIEW-JOURNAL CAPITAL BUREAU


Click image for enlargement.
Graphic by Mike Johnson.


Dean Heller


Jill Derby

CARSON CITY -- Republican Dean Heller has opened an 8-point lead over Democrat Jill Derby in the race for the 2nd Congressional District seat, according to a poll commissioned by the Review-Journal.

Heller, the secretary of state for the last 12 years, would receive 47 percent of the vote, compared with 39 percent for Derby, a member of the Board of Regents for 18 years, according to the poll. Twelve percent of those surveyed were undecided, while Independent Daniel Rosen and Independent American James Krochus each had 1 percent.

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"The district is overwhelmingly Republican in registration and Heller has managed to pull the Republicans back onto the reservation," said Brad Coker, managing partner for Mason-Dixon Polling & Research of Washington, D.C., which conducted the poll for the Review-Journal, reviewjournal.com" and KVBC-TV, Channel 3.

Republicans hold a 48,000-voter registration lead in the district that covers nearly all of Nevada's 110,000 square miles, including portions of Clark County. A Democrat has never won the seat since its creation in 1982.

"I feel real good about my chances," said Heller, who unlike some Republicans nationally has embraced the policies of President Bush. "It is all about getting out the vote. The party is working hard to get out the vote."

Bush raised more than $300,000 for Heller during an Oct. 2 appearance in Reno. The president also will campaign for Heller and other Republicans today during a short stopover in Elko.

The pollster surveyed by telephone Oct. 26 through Monday 625 registered Nevada voters statewide, including an oversampling of 400 in the 2nd Congressional District. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

A Reno Gazette-Journal poll completed four days earlier also found Heller with an 8 percentage-point lead. The last Review-Journal poll in mid-September showed Heller with a 3 percentage-point lead.

Derby was heartened that 12 percent of voters remain undecided. "We have five or six days to go," Derby said. "The undecided vote is encouraging to us. ... It is an unconventional year and an unconventional race. The race is close."

Derby said the appearance by Bush in Nevada shows the administration views the race as close and fears losing a Republican seat in Congress.

Heller's surge comes after a heated three-way Republican primary in which he defeated Assemblywoman Sharron Angle by 421 votes. Heller spent $1 million on the primary campaign. Heller's primary expenditures left him without much cash for his general election race against Derby. During the entire campaign Heller has raised $1.3 million, compared with Derby's $1.1 million.

Heller estimates she will outspend him by a ratio of 2-to-1 in the general election. Derby had no primary opposition and could save her resources for the race against Heller.

During the general election campaign, Derby has picked up on themes originally used by Heller. She calls him a "career politician" and emphasizes that he raised sales and other taxes by more than $200 million when he was an assemblyman in 1991.

"I believe she sends mixed messages," Heller said. "You can't tell where she is at. She says it is time for a change and change for her means amnesty and more taxes. ... People don't want that."

Derby said she designed her ads to respond to falsehoods by Heller. "I have never voted for a tax increase. He has," Derby said. "He went after me saying I would vote for taxes. That is just speculation. On what basis did he make it?"

She added she was not worried about turning off traditional Democrats by publicizing herself as the more fiscally conservative candidate.

"One of the main issues is restoring fiscal discipline," Derby said. "If that makes me conservative, so be it. The deficit has been growing for years. It dooms our future."



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