When I played basketball, I was taught to never telegraph a pass.

But Tuesday's election results are already being foreshadowed by the last-minute Get Out The Vote activities being waged in Nevada.

There's a reason President Bush was in Elko on Thursday and Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman was dispatched for a planned Saturday event in Reno.

That's where Republicans consistently win statewide elections, and if you believe the polls, which show that the races for four state constitutional offices and one congressional seat are being closely fought, then it's the Republicans' last-ditch GOTV machine that should make the difference.

On Thursday, Democrats tried their level best to counter the playbook of national Republicans with a GOTV rally of their own at Caesars Palace.

At the scheduled noon start of the rally, roughly 300 people were scattered throughout the 5,000-seat Roman Amphitheatre. It filled up a bit more by the time former President Bill Clinton took the stage an hour and 15 minutes later.

Press estimates of attendance at the Bush rally ranged from 3,500 to 6,000.

President Bush won Nevada by 21,500 votes two years ago because of energized and concerted turnout efforts in rural Nevada. Sure, he held his own in Democratic-heavy Clark County, but it was the phenomenally high turnout in red counties that paved the way for a 2 percentage-point victory.

For weeks we've heard about how Democrats are poised to retake the House of Representatives and how Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia hold the answer to which party will control the U.S. Senate.

But the Republican strategy is to dump resources into races that are viewed as winnable. Nowhere is that more evident than in red-state Nevada, where Republicans are either slightly ahead or even with their Democratic opponents.

Kate Marshall, a Democrat running for treasurer, looked out at the Caesars gathering and said of Republicans, "They have war chests, we have you."

Clark County Commissioner and former state Democratic Party Chairman Rory Reid was more blunt: "The Republicans have this big dump truck, and they back it up to Nevada and unload," Reid said.

It's been well-established that Republicans have more money for television ads. But the difference in recent election cycles has been their devotion to grass-roots politicking: just get registered Republicans to the polls and trust they'll vote for GOP candidates.

I talked to a number of voters at the Meadows mall on Friday, the last day of early voting.

Six Republicans I interviewed told me they were "disgusted," "disappointed," and "embarrassed" by the attention Rep. Jim Gibbons, their gubernatorial nominee, has garnered for hiring an illegal immigrant, helping shuttle untold millions in federal contracts to a friend's business, and for putting himself in a situation to get accused of assault after a night of drinking.

Only one of the six, however, didn't push the button for Gibbons. The one who didn't voted for "None of These Candidates." Sure Republicans are sick of scandals, they're turned off by the federal budget deficits, and many think President Bush has mishandled Iraq to the point of complete incompetence. But the alternative isn't to vote for Democrat Dina Titus for governor of Nevada, at least if my small sample of early voters is any indication.

I also interviewed five Democrats and three non-partisans and found four who voted for Titus, two who wouldn't say, one who voted for Independent American candidate Chris Hansen and another who went for "None of These Candidates."

"This is the worst I've ever felt voting in my life," said 68-year-old Republican Madeline Jones. "I wasn't going to come, but I did, and once I got here I decided I might as well vote for my party."

Reid told the Caesars crowd that because Democrats outnumber Republicans in Clark County, "if we show up, we win."

Clark County has not determined the outcome of the past two election cycles. The old model that a Democrat coming out of Clark County with a sizable lead could offset the red tide in Washoe County and rural Nevada doesn't appear to be viable anymore -- especially not when the Republicans dump their resources, fly in their top dogs and put those 72-hour teams in motion.

It used to be said that unions, with their unprecedented get-out-the-vote efforts, could swing elections for Democrats. Now Democrats have to scrape and claw for every one of their votes. Thursday's rally was less rah-rah and more desperate plea than any late-cycle event I've covered.

Two years ago, when Rahm Emanuel and Barack Obama urged Democrats in West Las Vegas to go to the polls, almost every person at the event left determined not only to vote, but to drag three people with them.

This year, Clark County Commissioner Yvonne Atkinson Gates tried to incite the same sense of urgency. She couldn't decide which early voting site was closest to Caesars. She offered the Boulevard Mall. Reid suggested the county building. The crowd told her Fashion Show, which isn't even a site.

And while thousands of rural Nevadans watched Air Force One fly over Elko, the 2nd Congressional District race (which shouldn't have been a race to begin with) was probably sealed. Republican candidate Dean Heller stood with Bush, Gov. Kenny Guinn and Would-Be Gov. Gibbons. Democrat Jill Derby was instead represented by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which offered rehashed allegations about Heller's ties to a radio talk show host indicted on drug-trafficking charges.

The biting reality that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by 48,000 in the 2nd District is what has Derby trailing slightly in the polls. Democrats try to make up the ground with the old allegations, while Republicans will rely on Bush and Mehlman to turn out difference-making voters.

Clinton on Thursday said he knows there are independents and Republicans who want to vote for Titus, but are scared because they've never pushed the button for a Democrat. He likened it to someone who knows how to swim, but is still terrified to jump off the diving board for the first time.

Democrats seem to be wading into the pool, telling Republicans the water is fine. The Republicans not only buy the bathing suit, they give their voters a little push.

Erin Neff's column runs Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.