Modesty leads me to call my forecast for 2007 "guesses" instead of "predictions."

Perhaps this is too harsh.

A year ago, I picked Jeff Gordon to win the Nextel Cup title; instead, teammate Jimmie Johnson did. I also said Kyle Busch would finish higher in points than older brother Kurt Busch and that he would be the only Busch to finish in the top 10 (right on each count).

I was 2-for-3 in drag racing, correctly picking Tony Schumacher in Top Fuel and John Force in Funny Car to earn championships. My miss -- barely -- was for Greg Anderson to win his fourth straight Pro Stock crown. Instead, teammate Jason Line halted Anderson's streak.

Not bad, but using the following information to formulate wagering strategies still is highly discouraged.

The NHRA Powerade Drag Racing Series opened this week in Pomona, Calif., and NASCAR's top three series will have their first points races of the year in two weeks.

The wacky world of open-wheel racing -- Champ Car World Series and Indy Racing League -- won't open their seasons until April, so check back in a month for prognostications pertaining to those series.

NHRA DRAG RACING

No champions will be crowned this year in professional categories.

NHRA's new Countdown to the Championship elimination format (a Comedy Central version of Nextel Cup's Chase for the Championship) makes it too easy for one bad break to keep the year's dominant teams from becoming champions in the four professional categories.

The Countdown plans to eliminate all but eight drivers from title contention after 17 of the 23 events. After the next four races, the list will be pared to the top four. They then will have two events to battle for what once were prestigious NHRA crowns.

You can count on this format being changed after the season.

So at the end of the season I'll determine the "people's" champions based on titles won and final-round appearances.

• 2007 CHAMPIONS: Under my format, winners will be Schumacher (again) in Top Fuel, Tommy Johnson Jr. in Funny Car, David Connolly in Pro Stock and Antron Brown in Pro Stock Motorcycle.

• SURE BET: Funny Car rookie Ashley Force will finish higher in points and have a more successful season than Kenny Bernstein, who is returning to compete in Funny Car for the first time since 1989. Her four-car team is just too strong.

NASCAR TRUCK SERIES

Toyota was powerful last year, winning the championship with Todd Bodine and putting six drivers in the top six spots of the final standings.

No reason to think Toyota's inaugural season in Nextel Cup will slow down its trucks.

• SURE BET: Brendan Gaughan's No. 77 South Point team will use its new ties to Chevrolet to win at least twice and be in the championship hunt to the end.

And the late Bobby Hamilton will be greatly missed.

• 2007 CHAMPION: Johnny Benson will slip past Bodine, his teammate, to take the title.

NASCAR BUSCH SERIES

The top five last year consisted of full-time Cup drivers, led by Kevin Harvick, who won his second Busch championship.

Harvick won't compete in all 35 Busch races. The new champion will be determined by the success of Cup drivers such as J.J. Yeley and Carl Edwards, who have said they won't miss a Busch race as long as they're contending.

• SURE BET: "Busch-whackers," a term for full-time Cup drivers who come down to race in Busch, will dominate the series again.

But it will be the last year a Busch-whacker challenges for the championship, only because this is Busch's last year to sponsor the series.

• 2007 CHAMPION: Edwards will miss at least one race and be the last Busch-whacker to take the title.

NASCAR NEXTEL CUP SERIES

Several factors make this year's Chase a real crapshoot.

Topping the list of variables is a slightly modified Chase for the Championship that gives more points to winners and the introduction of the "Car of Tomorrow" in 16 of this year's 36 points races. The next-generation Cup car has added safety features and unique aerodynamic features, including a rear wing instead of a spoiler. Many of the changes are intended to put more control of a race's outcome into the drivers' hands.

No one is better at adapting to different styles of race cars than Tony Stewart, and that's why he'll win his third Cup championship. Greg Biffle will come close, because he proved he could drive a boxy NASCAR truck, winning 16 races in 81 starts over four seasons.

• SURE BET: Toyota will not win a race this year, mainly because it's largely represented by new teams.

Its most experienced team, Bill Davis Racing, has drivers yet to produce in the Cup series. Dave Blaney placed 26th with one top-five finish last year, and Jeremy Mayfield, who joined the team late last season, has won twice in the past five years.

• 2007 TOP FIVE: 1. Stewart, 2. Biffle, 3. Kurt Busch, 4. Harvick, 5. Kyle Busch.

Jeff Wolf's motor sports column is published Friday. He can be reached at 383-0247 or jwolf@reviewjournal.com.