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Jan. 02, 2007
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal


ERIN NEFF: The crystal ball

Presidential candidate John Edwards' trip to Nevada last Friday foreshadows one of the busiest years ever in statewide politics.

While 2006 was remembered for a wild gubernatorial race and the ascendancy of Harry Reid to Senate majority leader, this year promises to be all Nevada all the time from the Legislature's work in Carson City to the dozens of expected visits from presidential contenders.

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Before I give you my predictions, I'll show you just how I did last year.

I incorrectly predicted that both the Tax and Spending Control and the property tax restraint initiatives would qualify for the ballot. TASC had the signatures but got tossed by the court, while the other didn't go anywhere.

I nailed the governor's race, from the primaries on. But I didn't anticipate George Chanos not running for attorney general. You can't win if you don't run.

I thought Ross Miller would give Democrats their only constitutional office win in November. Kim Wallin's narrow win in the controller's race rounded out four pickups for Democrats in constitutional office races.

So I underestimated Democrats statewide. But didn't nationally, having correctly suggested that Harry Reid would get to finish the year calling himself majority leader.

Clearly a mixed bag, so I'm happy I didn't have money riding on any of those predictions.

But if I were a smart bettor this year, I'd take the "will go" (as in special session) on the Legislature.

As long as Senate Majority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, still takes such a casual attitude into sine die without caring, frankly, if lawmakers adjourn on time, they won't.

By now, however, a special session has got to be the favorite given the Legislature's past sessions ending in overtime. They've only adjourned in time once since the constitutionally mandated 120-day sessions took effect, and with a strong Democratic lower house, a Republican power grab in the upper house and a clueless executive branch, I'm guessing this year will be par for the course.

While we're talking about the Legislature, I'll predict lawmakers will pass full-day kindergarten, although I suspect it will be phased in over several years, giving Gov. Jim Gibbons cover for his stated opposition to the program.

And, while Raggio has set up his committees to keep Democrats in a clear minority despite the upper house's 11-10 makeup, control could flip by the end of the session. Let's say President Pro Tem Mark Amodei, R-Carson City, actually abstains from votes when he should on bills his law firm lobbies. And let's say one of the Republicans falls ill. Suddenly, Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, could have the votes, albeit not the power, to control some of the agenda.

That's a long shot. But if you're looking for any given in the Legislature, it's that Titus will try to be the Democratic rival to Gibbons, but that Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley will steal her thunder with policy and the press.

Presidential contenders will probably visit Carson City this year in addition to making trips to labor-rich Vegas and environmentally concerned Reno.

If you thought Gibbons made a spectacle of the Legislature when, as a congressman, he came in to speak, imagine who might get a bigger audience in the capital: Majority Leader Reid or Sen. Barack Obama, a former state legislator?

State Sen. Randolph Townsend's attempts to get Republicans to move up their 2008 caucus vote will fall on deaf ears. But the candidates will listen. Townsend may just play host to Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney or John McCain at Gibbons' State of the State address or another joint legislative event.

It's hard to predict which candidates will ultimately run for president. But I'm going to guess that Tom Vilsack, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden will have staff in Nevada by summer.

The actual outcome of the 2008 caucus, thankfully, will have to wait for next year's prediction column. The early favorite, though, has to be Edwards. He's been here the most; has the best ties to labor here and has the kind of policy agenda that riles up Democrats: universal health care, improving access to college and addressing poverty.

Don't forget, there are municipal elections this year. I predict Oscar Goodman will run against 10 no-names, getting at least 70 percent of the vote for his third term. Expect a concerted effort, surreptitiously backed by Goodman, to oust Councilwoman Lois Tarkanian in Ward 1. Perhaps she relinquishes her seat on the eve of filing, endorsing her son. Heck, the third time may be the charm for Danny Tarkanian, even if he has to move.

In other political news, I'm guessing there will be early labor peace on the Strip with agreement on the Culinary's new contract by April.

One thing is certain about 2007: It'll be the kind of year about which political pundits typically only dream, from Carson City to the presidential caucuses. Thus, for once, an odd-numbered year won't be seen as an off year.

Erin Neff's column runs Sunday, Tuesday and Thursday. She can be reached at 387-2906, or by e-mail at eneff@reviewjournal.com.



ERIN NEFF
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