Carl Edwards targets Texas-sized triumph in Sprint Cup race

Carl Edwards is in a desperate situation entering Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, but he showed a lot of speed in Saturday’s final practices to suggest he could be on his way to his fourth win on the 1.5-mile layout, which would give him an automatic berth into the championship round.

Edwards is 32 points below the transfer position, sitting last after one of three races in the Round of 8. It’s either win Sunday or next weekend at Phoenix to advance. He’s listed at 12-1 odds.

Edwards doesn’t have a win in any of the nine races on 1.5-mile tracks this season, but in the last one at Kansas three weeks ago, he was second and led 61 laps.

His edge Sunday starting from the ninth position comes from having a car that is fast on the long runs. During Saturday’s early practice, he had the best 10-consecutive lap average. He also has an edge because he’s with Joe Gibbs Racing, which has produced four winners on these type of tracks.

START POSITION IMPORTANT

In 31 Texas races, 24 have been won from a top-10 start position, with six winners starting on the front row. The third-place slot has been the most proficient start position, which is where Kevin Harvick starts Sunday. The deepest start position to win was 31st by Matt Kenseth in 2002. Harvick showed awful individual lap times during Saturday’s practices, but after 15 laps, he was faster than most. He’s looking for his first Texas win in 27 starts, one of only four tracks at which he hasn’t won.

SIMILAR TRACKS

The 24 degrees of banking of Texas Motor Speedway’s 1.5-mile oval make it most similar to tracks at Atlanta and Charlotte. There are 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks, and Sunday’s will be the 10th, with Homestead in the championship round. If looking at the data from the entire season, the driver who stands out is Martin Truex Jr. with two wins (Charlotte and Kansas) and a series-leading 817 laps led. But he hasn’t led a lap in the last two attempts, nor did he finish in the top 10. The good news for Truex this weekend is that he had the best 10-consecutive lap average during the final practice.

CHICAGO TEST CATAPULT

Jimmie Johnson clinched a berth into the championship round with his ninth career win at Martinsville last weekend, but what also makes him the Westgate’s 2-1 favorite to win his seventh career championship is what the team learned during a test session on Chicago’s 1.5-mile layout just before the Chase started. Do well on the 1.5s and the championship is within reach.

Crew chief Chad Knaus figured something out during the test, and the No. 48 has been dominant on these tracks since. Johnson led the most laps at Chicago to kick off the Chase, led a race-high 155 laps at Charlotte with a win and finished fourth at Kansas three weeks ago.

Johnson will attempt to add to his Texas-record six wins, but he could park his car after the first lap and it won’t affect him, as he has qualified for the championship round. He wasn’t particularly special in the final practice Saturday, with the 15th fastest lap (188.186 mph), but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the No. 48 contending Sunday.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1994. Follow @MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.