Final practice speeds give Kurt Busch betting edge over Harvick

Kevin Harvick has won five of the past seven Sprint Cup races at Phoenix International Raceway and a track record seven overall, but he will have serious competition in Sunday’s Sam Good 500 from teammate Kurt Busch, who dominated Saturday’s final practices.

Busch last won at Phoenix in 2005, but the Las Vegan always has been steady at Phoenix with a 13.6 average finish in 26 starts. He put on a show Saturday with single lap and average speeds during practices that suggest he’s the driver to beat.

Busch’s and Harvick’s cars might be equal, but it’s Busch’s No. 4 starting position that gives him the slight edge over Harvick, who will start 18th. Harvick is using the same chassis that won at Phoenix last March.

Don’t expect 10-1 odds anymore on Busch, but anything around 6-1 is still a good play. The benefit for some with Busch being so good is that Harvick’s adjusted odds could approach close to 5-1. He was listed as a plus-220 favorite at William Hill sports books before Saturday’s final practices.

Chevrolet on Phoenix roll

Chevrolet drivers have won the past five Phoenix races and 19 of 24. During the final practice session, five of the top six speeds were Chevrolets, led by Harvick and Busch.

Don’t count out Johnson

Jimmie Johnson (8-1) wrecked his primary car Friday and will be using a backup and starting from the rear of the field. He hasn’t won at Phoenix since 2009, but according to NASCAR’s Loop Data, he’s the top-rated driver in the past 22 Phoenix races.

Best long shots

The track has been good to those who performed well in practices the day before the race. There aren’t too many surprises, which is bad news for long-shot bettors. But Hendrick driver Kasey Kahne might be worth a bet at 30-1. He’s starting from the rear of the field with a backup engine, but the change worked out well in the final practice, when he had the best 10-consecutive lap average.

Elliott good play in driver matchups

Another Hendrick driver who showed well at practice was Chase Elliott who was fifth fastest in Saturday’s early practice and fourth fastest in the final session. Winning may be a tough sell, and there is no chance of rain, either. But he’s a decent play in driver matchups.

Hamlin loves flat tracks

Denny Hamlin is always a good bet to win at a flat track, and his 20-1 odds are attractive. His consistency at Phoenix has been impressive with an 11.4 average finish in 21 starts, with a win in 2012. His nine top fives are third best to Johnson (15) and Harvick (11) among active drivers. Hamlin looked good on long runs during practice and is a strong matchup bet against everyone but Harvick and Busch.

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on Twitter @MicahRoberts7.