NFL Betting Breakdown: Bruce Marshall

Houston (3-1) at Minnesota (4-0)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Vikings -7, 40½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Since the Vikings have stayed afloat minus Teddy Bridgewater, Adrian Peterson, Matt Kalil and others, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which shrewd coach Mike Zimmer will be at a disadvantage. The voracious Vikings defense recently bounced Carolina’s Cam Newton around the field and could wreak havoc on Brock Osweiler, who’s still learning the Bill O’Brien offense. Osweiler has thrown at least one interception in each of Houston’s first four games.

By the numbers: Zimmer is 18-2 against the spread in his past 20 games. … The Vikings are 23-14 under the total in their past 37 games. … Minnesota has forced 13 turnovers in the first four games.

Marshall’s pick: Vikings, 23-13

Tennessee (1-3) at Miami (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Dolphins -3½, 43

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Titans’ Marcus Mariota has not thrown for a touchdown since Week 2, but coach Mike Mularkey at least has gotten running back DeMarco Murray moving in the right direction. Confidence-shaken quarterback Ryan Tannehill is a sitting duck behind the depleted Dolphins offensive line, which is red meat for the clever zone blitzes of Tennessee defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau.

By the numbers: Tennessee is on a 9-30-3 spread skid and is 3-10 straight up and ATS under Mularkey. … Murray has 209 yards rushing in the Titans’ past two games, and he ranks seventh in the NFL with 340 yards rushing.

Marshall’s pick: Titans, 24-23

New England (3-1) at Cleveland (0-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Patriots -10½, 47

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Before getting carried away with New England and Tom Brady’s return, a warning to the masses who created one-way Bill Belichick traffic at Las Vegas sports books last week when betting New England past a key number of 7 versus Buffalo before late word came that Jimmy Garoppolo was not going to play. The Patriots have been poor in the role of road favorites. Still, Belichick’s defenses have long feasted upon rookie quarterbacks, such as the Browns’ Cody Kessler.

By the numbers: The Patriots are 4-13 ATS in their past 17 as road favorites, and that was with Brady available. … But the Patriots are off a rare loss, which over the past decade has been a good go-with indicator (26-11 ATS in the past 37.). … Belichick is 0-2 ATS versus the Browns, though the teams have met only twice since 2010.

Marshall’s pick: Patriots, 33-17

New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1)

Time/TV: 10 a.m., KLAS (8)

Line/Total: Steelers -7½, 48

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Normally, this might be a spot to look at taking New York plus the points. But the Jets can’t be trusted these days, not with Jekyll & Hyde quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick having slipped into Mr. Hyde mode with nine interceptions in his past two games. Moreover, Matt Forte (14 carries for 27 yards last week) has lost his force, and the Jets’ secondary continues to be among the worst in receiver yards after catch. That’s trouble when facing Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown.

By the numbers: Roethlisberger and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan are tied for the league lead with 11 touchdown passes. … The Steelers’ Le’Veon Bell rushed for 144 yards in his first game back from suspension. … Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin is 8-2-1 ATS in his past 11 at home in the regular season.

Marshall’s pick: Steelers, 31-16

Washington (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Ravens -4, 45

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The low-variance Ravens are showing a proclivity for narrow decisions, with their first four games decided by 14 points total. Baltimore is not creating much separation from foes, and quarterback Joe Flacco is not quite 100 percent after last year’s knee injury. Ravens coach John Harbaugh has many young defenders still learning the ropes. With Kirk Cousins back in the groove, throwing for five touchdowns the past two weeks, the Redskins have recovered from their 0-2 start.

By the numbers: Flacco has attempted 170 passes, the third-highest number in the league. He has four touchdown passes and four interceptions in four games. … The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their past eight as underdogs. … Baltimore is 2-10-2 ATS in its past 14 as a regular-season favorite.

Marshall’s pick: Redskins, 26-24

Philadelphia (3-0) at Detroit (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Eagles -3½, 46

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has been elevated to Frank Sinatra/Frank Rizzo/Pope status in Philadelphia. But there are other reasons to like the Eagles, who seek to avenge last year’s brutal 45-14 Thanksgiving beatdown at Detroit when Mark Sanchez was the Philadelphia QB and the Chip Kelly regime was unraveling. This game also marks the return of defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to Ford Field, where he was fired as Lions coach after the 2013 season. The Lions are wobbling at 1-3 with numerous injuries, and the pressure is mounting on coach Jim Caldwell. Schwartz should have an idea how to rattle quarterback Matthew Stafford with his aggressive Eagles defense.

By the numbers: Stafford ranks fourth in the league with 1,198 yards passing. … The Eagles are 3-0 straight up and ATS, plus 2-0-1 under the total with their new-look defense.

Marshall’s pick: Eagles, 23-13

Chicago (1-3) at Indianapolis (1-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Colts -4, 48

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: It appears Chicago coach John Fox will stick with quarterback Brian Hoyer, behind whom the Bears seem to be responding better than they did for the aloof Jay Cutler. Either way, it’s not a bad idea to go against Indianapolis, which is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 as a favorite. Andrew Luck is chafing at the Colts’ offensive design, which seems too conservative. Colts coach Chuck Pagano’s defense is still dealing with injuries and was unable to slow Blake Bortles and the Jaguars last week in London.

By the numbers: The Colts declined to request their bye the week after playing in London, the first time an NFL team has passed on that opportunity. … In three games, including two starts, Hoyer has completed 69.1 percent of his passes for 697 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions for a 103.3 rating.

Marshall’s pick: Colts, 26-24

Atlanta (3-1) at Denver (4-0)

Time/TV: 1:05 p.m., KVVU (5)

Line/Total: Broncos -4½, 46½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Rest assured, Atlanta will not roll up 571 yards of offense, as it did last week against Carolina, nor will Julio Jones reach 300 yards receiving versus the speedy Denver defense. Trevor Siemian, 4-0 as a starter, is dealing with a shoulder injury and 6-foot-7-inch rookie Paxton Lynch will start. Lynch played with poise when pressed into action last week at Tampa Bay. Yes, the Falcons are coming off highly-satisfying, back-to-back NFC South victories over rivals New Orleans and Carolina. But it will take an even better effort at Mile High against the No. 4 -ranked Denver defense.

By the numbers: The Broncos are allowing 283.3 yards and 16 points per game. … Lynch, a first-round pick from Memphis, completed 14 of 24 passes with one touchdown in relief last week. … The Falcons have covered their past four as underdogs. … Atlanta’s Matt Ryan leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.1) and passing yards (1,473.)

Marshall’s pick: Broncos, 30-17

Buffalo (2-2) at Los Angeles (3-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Pick, 39

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: This is only the second home game for Los Angeles in the first five weeks. In the first one, 91,000 Coliseum fans were rewarded with zero touchdowns as the Rams edged Seattle 9-3. Meanwhile, the Bills are beaming after their 16-0 shutout at New England, with some calling it coach Rex Ryan’s best win. But considering Ryan was facing the Patriots’ No. 3 quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, perhaps not. Even the well-coached New England defense could not control mobile Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor. It’s not so clear the first-place Rams will win this one.

By the numbers: Rams running back Todd Gurley ranks 21st in rushing with 216 yards and is getting only 2.6 yards per carry. … The Rams are 15-5-1 under the total in their past 21 games. … Los Angeles has scored 54 points in its past two games, after scoring nine in its first two.

Marshall’s pick: Bills, 19-17

San Diego (1-3) at Oakland (3-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Raiders -3½, 51

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The banged-up Chargers are quickly reaching desperation stage. San Diego has blown fourth-quarter leads in all three losses, including last week’s fumbled-away victory at home versus the Saints. Meanwhile, the Raiders have become road warriors by winning at New Orleans, Tennessee and Baltimore. Oakland lost a home game to Atlanta in Week 2. Expect a down-to-the-wire duel between Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and the Chargers’ Philip Rivers.

By the numbers: Carr has nine touchdown passes with one interception. … Raiders coach Jack Del Rio is 2-4 as a favorite the past two years. … The Chargers’ losses were by margins of six (in overtime), four and one point. … The road team has covered the past three meetings in this AFC West rivalry.

Marshall’s pick: Raiders, 24-23

Cincinnati (2-2) at Dallas (3-1)

Time/TV: 1:25 p.m., KLAS (8)

Line/Total: Bengals -2, 45½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Dallas’ impressive Dak/Zeke/Dez triplets didn’t even make it through four games together. But rookie quarterback Dak Prescott continues to shine, and rookie Ezekiel Elliott has 361 yards rushing in three games since his tentative opener. It appears wide receiver Dez Bryant is unlikely to return this week because of a knee injury. Former Texas Christian star Andy Dalton returns to the Metroplex, but still needs to find a way to get his team into the end zone rather than settle for field goals. The return of renegade linebacker Vontaze Burfict helped inspire the Cincinnati defense against a Miami team that was missing four offensive line starters.

By the numbers: Bengals coach Marvin Lewis was 7-0-1 ATS away last season before failing to cover the first two away this season. … Dallas is 6-14-2 ATS in its past 22 home games.

Marshall’s pick: Cowboys, 27-16

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay (2-1)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m., KSNV (3)

Line/Total: Packers -7, 48

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: The Giants have covered three straight versus the Packers, for whom New York coach Ben McAdoo served as an assistant from 2006 to 2013. Green Bay cornerback Sam Shields is out with a concussion, and his absence could be a problem against the Giants’ high-quality wide receivers. Packers linebacker Clay Matthews missed the team’s last game two weeks ago with ankle and hamstring problems. If he plays in this one, will he be close to 100 percent? When quarterback Eli Manning stays focused, the Giants — with this year’s reinforcements on defense — have been tough to beat.

By the numbers: In the Packers’ home opener, Jordy Nelson had 101 yards receiving and two touchdowns, and Eddie Lacy rushed for 103 yards. … Aaron Rodgers has completed only 58.5 percent of his passes in Green Bay’s first three games. … The Packers rank 29th in total offense (293.7 yards per game.)

Marshall’s pick: Packers, 27-23

Tampa Bay (1-3) at Carolina (1-3)

Time/TV: 5:30 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: Panthers -4, 44½

Bruce Marshall’s analysis: Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has been ruled out because of the concussion he suffered last week. But even with veteran Derek Anderson, I prefer to lay the lumber. Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston took a pounding by the Denver defense last week, being sacked five times and hit hard several other times. Exhibiting a bit of the Super Bowl loser syndrome, the Panthers should start working their way back into contention in this one.

By the numbers: Carolina’s defense was torched for 503 yards passing by Matt Ryan a week ago. … The Panthers were way too much for Tampa Bay last year, posting 37 and 38 points in two victories.

Marshall’s pick: Panthers, 39-19