NFL week 19 predictions

Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4)

Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass. - TV: NBC

• TV announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
• Keys to the game: Baltimore is not unnerved by a stroll into the House That Brady Built, winning two of the previous three playoff meetings, including 28-13 in the AFC Championship game in 2013. There are two big reasons for genuine bravado from the Ravens: QB Joe Flacco’s 14 playoff starts include a 7-0 record on the road, and Baltimore defensive coordinator Dean Pees has experience deconstructing Tom Brady’s offense.
• The Ravens are expecting LT Eugene Monroe back in the lineup — he didn’t play last week due to an ankle injury — solidifying an offensive line that grasps the plan is to win with the deep ball. Flacco and 35-year-old lead receiver Steve Smith connected five times in the wild-card win, as Baltimore scrapes for positive gains in the running game. But Smith will likely see a lot of All-Pro CB Darrelle Revis, forcing Flacco to look elsewhere.
• New England had two weeks to ready a game plan, anticipating a 3-4 defense, and TE Rob Gronkowski will be at the center of it all. Gronkowski will see bracket coverage and the Ravens used SS Darian Stewart to cut off deep routes last week. The risk for the Ravens is exposing CB Lardarius Webb man-up with WR Julian Edelman. Webb played every snap at Pittsburgh, but allowed nine catches in 12 targets and a passer rating of 129.2.
• Rookie ILB C.J. Mosley joined Ray Lewis as the only Ravens rookies to lead the team in tackles and he owns a lot of land inside the tackles. Critical for the Ravens will be folding the pocket around Brady. DE Terrell Suggs has 12 career playoff sacks and with two last week, Elvis Dumervil has 19 in 17 games this season.
• Matchup to watch - Ravens TE Owen Daniels vs. Patriots LB Jamie Collins: Daniels averaged 17.5 yards per catch at Pittsburgh and is a go-to look on third downs. The Patriots have gone zone-heavy against the Ravens in the past to limit Flacco’s grenade launcher.
• Player spotlight - Patriots NT Vince Wilfork: Recent film of the Ravens’ offensive line showed flaws aplenty. With Monroe back, that group gets stronger, but C Jeremy Zuttah was manhandled at Pittsburgh and will be tested constantly by defensive coordinator Matt Patricia.
• Fast facts: Flacco is 10-4 in the playoffs and has gone 166 pass attempts without an interception in the postseason. … Bill Belichick has 19 career playoff wins, one shy of the NFL record (Don Shula, 20). … The Patriots have won 16 of their past 17 home games.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Ravens are capable of the upset with more out of their running game and consistent heat on Brady, but the Patriots historically over-adjust to correct exposed flaws and have earned the favorites label with their Hall of Fame QB-coach combo. Brady delivers in the big spots to push New England to the conference title game.

Our pick: Patriots 25-21

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Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, at CenturyLink Field, Seattle - TV: FOX

• TV announcers: Kevin Burkhardt, John Lynch, Pam Oliver
• Keys to the game: The Panthers have the offensive game plan suited to keeping the game close, and the history to back that belief up. The teams have meet each of the past three seasons in Carolina, with the Seahawks winning all three, but only by an average of 4.3 points in low-scoring defensive battles.
• Carolina’s ground game is the most formidable it has been all season with RB Jonathan Stewart and QB Cam Newton healthy. If the Panthers can run between the tackles and suck up time of possession, they know the Seahawks don’t score a ton of points — as long as Newton steers clear of mistakes downfield. In the three previous meetings, he has averaged 146 yards while completing 68 percent of his pass attempts. He has also been sacked a combined 13 times. Translation: he will throw high percentage passes in an attempt to keep the chains moving and steer clear of the Legion of Boom.
• The Seahawks are not exotic offensively. RB Russell Wilson will run the zone read with RB Marshawn Lynch against a middle of the pack run defense. The onus is on gap integrity among Carolina’s front seven to prevent big plays that could prove backbreaking in a tight contest. Wilson lacks the outside threats to push the ball vertically, but is very dangerous when escaping the pocket and looking for WR Doug Baldwin or one of several solid tight ends on extended plays.
• Matchup to watch - Panthers DTs Colin Cole and Kawaan Short vs. Seahawks C Max Unger: Unger returns after missing six games and handles all the line calls. With former first-round pick Star Lotulelei (broken foot) out, Cole gets the nod next to Short. The interior defensive line is pivotal for keeping the Panthers’ speedy linebackers free of blocks and the Panthers have limited Lynch to a combined 105 yards the past two meetings.
• Player spotlight - Panthers DE Charles Johnson: After posting no sacks through four games this season, Johnson has 10.5 over his past 13 and will be working against vulnerable rookie RT Justin Britt.
• Fast facts: Stewart is from Lacy, Wash., about one hour south of Seattle, and chose the University of Oregon over the University of Washington, among others. … Seattle is attempting to become the first team since the 2005 Patriots to win a playoff game the year after winning the Super Bowl.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

The Panthers have won five straight, are playing with house money and can absolutely take this game down to the wire. Then again, Newton has never played in Seattle, and certainly not in the postseason, where the Seahawks feed off their environment and regularly turn first-half dogfights into comfortable victory marches.

Our pick: Seahawks 23-16

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Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET, at Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis. - TV: FOX

• TV announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews.
• Keys to the game: Cowboys QB Tony Romo was sacked a season-high six times by the Lions last week. The Packers can bring some of the same poison, disguising blitzes by sliding around chess pieces at linebacker — Clay Matthews from outside to the middle and Julius Peppers from down to stand-up rusher.
• The heavy pressure exposed the Dallas offensive line thought to be largely inpenetrable and calls into question Romo’s responsivness to pre-snap looks that imply the heat will be high.
• Seeing the blitz coming and beating it — either with audibles into a stellar running game or by attacking one-on-one matchups on the perimeter — could make or break the Cowboys in a chilly venue where every mistake will be amplified. The Cowboys are running the ball 14 percent more — 49.3 percent in 17 games — than they did last season when these teams met, but some are concerned RB DeMarco Murray might be wearing down after 472 total touches, including 22 last week vs. Detroit.
• The Packers should have plenty of pep in the 15-degree friendly confines of Lambeau after a bye last week that spared QB Aaron Rodgers 10 days of practice on his strained calf. Mobility might not be 100 percent or at training camp levels, but Rodgers is expected to be ready to roll.
• That isn’t great news for the Cowboys, who are lacking a defined lead cornerback — Brandon Carr has struggled mightily and Orlando Scandrick gets by more on guts than gifts — and will likely utilize a soft zone to keep Rodgers from going over the top to talented WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
• Green Bay trusts RB Eddie Lacy, but as with Murray (five fumbles lost), his ball security is not a given. The big back can bulldoze for yards and expose Dallas inside, where SS Barry Church is no sure thing.
• Matchup to watch - Cowboys special teams vs. Packers special teams: Packers CB Micah Hyde has four return touchdowns in his career, including two punt return scores this season. Cowboys PK Dan Bailey made 25 of 29 field goal attempts this season but missed one last week. The Packers have had seven total kicks blocked this season.
• Player spotlight - Packers TE Richard Rodgers: Out of the blue, Rodgers had five of his 20 receptions this season in the Week 17 finale when the Lions doubled both outside receivers. Against the Cover-2 scheme, Aaron Rodgers will look to slot receiver Cobb and rookie TE Rodgers.
• Fast facts: This is the first playoff game pitting an 8-0 home team (Green Bay) against a team that went 8-0 on the road (Dallas). … With a win, the Cowboys would reach a NFL-record-tying 15th NFC Championship game (San Francisco). … On a combined 154 targets, Cowboys WRs Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley have zero drops. … Cowboys WR Dez Bryant (16) and Packers WR Jordy Nelson (13) were first and second in the NFL in touchdown catches. … The Packers outscored opponents 151-58 in the first quarter this season. … The Packers led the NFL with a plus-14 turnover margin.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

If the Packers get out to a lead, the Cowboys are capable of climbing out of the danger zone against most teams, but Green Bay’s offensive talent exceeds that of most Dallas opponents. With two excellent quarterbacks and marginal defenses, the outcome could rest on a few key plays in the second half. Romo leads the NFL with 27 game-winning drives since 2006, but only one — last week — in the playoffs.

Our pick: Packers 36-29

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Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)

Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET, at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver - TV: CBS

• TV announcers: Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson
• Keys to the game: The Colts scored a touchdown on their opening possession last week for the first time all season. Indianapolis’ offense has built a reputation for starting slow before staging furious rallies, similar to the script from meetings against Denver each of the past two seasons. QB Andrew Luck believes his growth is instrumental in avoiding turnovers and early deficits, which could prove lethal on the road against Peyton Manning & Co.
• Expect RB Dan Herron to get plenty of early touches as the Colts attempt to establish possession and trade punches with Denver’s defense, rather than taking them from Manning. Manning did not look himself down the stretch as the Broncos morphed into a run-heavy unit. With a bye week, all eyes will be on Manning’s arm strength at the outset.
• The Colts lack a dynamic pass rusher to consistently pressure the pocket, and Manning has far more weapons than Indianapolis can contend with if Manning is close to 100 percent. The key for the Colts’ undersized front seven is to contain RB C.J. Anderson. If he’s effective early and setting up play-action, Denver will have little trouble driving into the red zone.
• Matchup to watch - Colts SS Mike Adams vs. Manning: Teammates last season, Adams has a strong respect for Manning’s preparation and intelligence. Knowing your opponent is one thing, stopping him is another, and Adams will play a key role in the cat and mouse pre-snap game.
• Player spotlight - Colts RB Daniel “Boom” Herron: Trent Richardson should see more action following an illness that limited him last week, but Herron has provided a versatile threat in the backfield. He rushed for a game-high 56 yards on 12 carries last week and caught a game-high 10 passes for another 85 yards.
• Fast facts: In his first four postseason games, Luck has thrown more passes (184) and thrown for more yards (1,438) than any other player in league history, besting Dan Fouts (182) and Kurt Warner (1,428) who held the previous records. … Manning is the NFL’s all-time playoff leader with 6,589 passing yards and is fourth with 37 TD passes.

WHO WILL WIN AND WHY

Manning has notoriously struggled in cold-weather games, but with temperatures expected near 40, a bye week to rest his 38-year-old body and a solid ground game chipping away at an undersized front seven, he puts the pressure on Luck early and Denver’s defense capitalizes with multiple turnovers.

Our pick: Broncos 30-23