Sports books favor Harvick, question Earnhardt for NASCAR race at LVMS

If a leading NASCAR oddsmaker is on the money with his forecast, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is not worth a wager to win Sunday in Las Vegas. But that’s not stopping bettors from riding Earnhardt’s tail, as usual.

Kevin Harvick is the favorite at 5-1 odds and was last year’s winner of the Kobalt 400. Kyle Busch, a hometown favorite, and Jimmie Johnson, last week’s winner of the Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta, are each at 6-1.

Ed Salmons, sports book manager at the Westgate, broke down the field and said he is focused on seven drivers — Harvick, Busch, Johnson, Joey Logano (7-1), Matt Kenseth (8-1), Brad Keselowski (8-1) and Carl Edwards (15-1).

“I would say your winner will come from that group,” Salmons said.

Earnhardt (12-1) has the most tickets written on him at the Westgate. Salmons downplayed his chances of winning, however, because Johnson is the most dominant driver and has the best car on the Hendrick Motorsports team that includes Earnhardt, Chase Elliott and Kasey Kahne.

“The only guy who can probably win the race out of that group is Johnson,” Salmons said. “But Earnhardt is the most popular driver.

“To some extent, what you saw last week in Atlanta will transfer to Las Vegas. If guys were fast last week, there’s no reason to think they won’t be fast this week.”

Earnhardt finished second to Johnson in Atlanta, followed by Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Edwards and Harvick. Johnson is a four-time winner in Las Vegas, where Earnhardt has zero wins.

Salmons discounted Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin after he wrecked during Thursday’s practice at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

“Hamlin crashed his primary car, and that’s going to be hard to overcome,” Salmons said.

Harvick and Kurt Busch (10-1), who won the pole Friday, are expected to contend from the Stewart-Haas Racing team.

“It’s almost a given Harvick is going to have the fastest car every week,” Salmons said, referring to non-restrictor-plate races such as the one in Las Vegas. “Harvick will be the race favorite, and Kurt Busch will probably finish in the top 10 without any issues. Kurt Busch could win, but it would take certain circumstances.”

If playing the favorites on the odds board is not your preferred way to wager, there are plenty of alternatives. The Westgate has posted 34 head-to-head driver matchups and around 30 propositions.

For example, Harvick is a minus-150 favorite to finish ahead of Kenseth, and Earnhardt is a minus-140 favorite against Kurt Busch.

The prop for caution flags in the race is 6½ (Over minus-150), and Salmons adjusted the number (it opened Under minus-130) because of a weather forecast calling for a chance of rain and wind gusts in the 25 to 40 mph range.

“With the wind, you could have a few more issues on the track,” said Salmons, who is emphasizing the race favorites because of the tricky conditions.

“The weather is going to be a huge factor,” Salmons said. “The worse the weather, as far as wind, it’s more favorable for the top guys. That will blow these cars all over the place, and usually when that happens, it accents the better cars that much more.”

Want to bet a little to potentially win a lot? Look at Kyle Larson, the 2014 Cup Series Rookie of the Year, at 25-1 odds.

“Larson has a ton of potential, and I think he will win a race this year,” Salmons said. “He kind of reminds me of a young Kyle Busch. It would take a lot of things for Larson to win, but if you were looking for some long shots, he would be a guy to keep an eye on.”

Danica Patrick is a true long shot at 500-1, but buying a grilled cheese sandwich at the sports book deli is probably a better way to spend a few dollars. She has raced in Las Vegas three times with finishes of 21st, 27th and 33rd.

“There are always people willing to bet $5 on Danica at 500-1,” Salmons said. “On a good day, she can finish between 16th and 20th. Danica has a zero percent chance to win.”

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.