Manning, Broncos get slight edge over Panthers

CAROLINA (17-1) vs. DENVER (14-4)

WHERE: Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

WHEN: 3:30 p.m. today

TV/RADIO: KLAS-8; KWWN (1100 AM, 100.9 FM)

LINE: Panthers -5; total 44½

Super Bowl history: Denver is making its eighth trip, having won Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII. The Broncos are a charter member of the American Football League dating to 1960. Carolina, founded as the league's 29th franchise in 1993 and having begun play two years later, lands in its second title game. It lost to the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

Coaches: Gary Kubiak (Denver), ninth season, first with the Broncos, 73-68 overall record. Ron Rivera (Carolina), fifth season, all with the Panthers, 47-32 overall record.

WHEN THE PANTHERS HAVE THE BALL

The skinny: Rivera reminded everyone listening this past week there are no games after this one, which is his way of saying quarterback Cam Newton will be let loose and in no way restricted from running at any point. The key for Denver's stout defense won't be getting to Newton but rather taking him down. It will help the Broncos' cause if they can pressure Newton as they did Tom Brady in the AFC Championship Game, which probably will mean Denver blitzing Carolina far more than it did New England. This will be the best pass rush Newton has seen all season, and he's maneuvering behind a good but hardly great line. The Panthers have rushed for 100 or more yards 31 straight games, which happens when you have Newton combining with running back Jonathan Stewart. There is no question Denver's biggest advantage here is in the secondary, where Newton when throwing must be wary of cornerbacks Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, and where Carolina receivers Ted Ginn Jr. and Corey-Philly-Whatever-He's-Calling-Himself-Now Brown need to hope their breakaway speed is enough to create big plays.

Matchup to watch on this side: Greg Olsen is the NFL's best tight end not named Rob Gronkowski. Olsen isn't the matchup nightmare that Gronkowski is for the Patriots, but that doesn't mean Denver's defense (and specifically safety T.J. Ward) won't have their hands full with a player who had 77 catches for 1,104 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. Trying to cover Olsen usually means playing more matchup zone than normally prescribed.

Key question on this side: In dealing with Denver linebackers Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware, will Newton more times than not slide to the right side of the protection?

Edge: Denver. The Newton of three or four years ago would make far too many mistakes against this good a defense to win any game, much less the Super Bowl. The Newton of 2016 as the league's best player probably won't, but Denver isn't within 1,000 miles of this moment without its defense.

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

The skinny: The Panthers are coming, and Peyton Manning better know from which side of the line each snap. Film doesn't lie, and you can be sure Carolina knows this is a different Manning at quarterback than years past. Denver is here because it didn't try to be something it's not, which is to say it took few risks offensively and watched its defense and special teams carry the load this season. Manning has just one turnover in the playoffs — compared with 17 in the regular season — and has done a better job in the postseason pushing the ball downfield on intermediate and dig routes. But the Panthers are ultraaggressive — they forced Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer into a combined six interceptions in these playoffs — and players such as linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis and cornerback Josh Norman should cause Manning to settle for more quick outs. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman have been a good enough tandem at running back for the Broncos to average nearly 130 yards on the ground in the past nine games, but it's likely Denver needs to be in the 150-plus range to win.

Matchup to watch on this side: The impressive push from Carolina's front comes from capable tackles in Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short, the latter offering a team-high 11 sacks. If the Broncos don't want the pocket collapsing around Manning all day, their offensive line has to play above its collective talent. That starts with center Matt Paradis, a former practice team player, making all the correct calls.

Key question on this side: Can a Panthers defense that led the NFL in takeaways pressure Manning into yet another subpar Super Bowl performance?

Edge: Carolina. The Broncos might have a slight advantage with wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders against Carolina's secondary, but there is no guarantee Manning can get them the ball under the type of pressure he is sure to face. The Panthers are better at every other spot here.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The skinny: You can't overstate the importance of having a punter such as Britton Colquitt of the Broncos (just ask the Patriots) pinning opponents deep in their own territory, which would certainly benefit Denver not to give Newton many short fields. Ginn Jr. with seven career touchdowns on returns is a huge threat for Carolina, but Denver's cover teams are terrific. There isn't much difference between the kickers in Brandon McManus of the Broncos and Graham Gano of the Panthers, unless Gano chooses to play in a Scottish kilt, which would make for some good front-page pictures should he win the game with a field goal as time expires.

Edge: Denver. Colquitt's ability to drop punts inside the opposing 20-yard line gives the Broncos the nod in an area that's as close as any.

FACT ABOUT BRONCOS: If it's within a touchdown, favor Denver. It won 11 games this season by seven or fewer points.

FACT ABOUT PANTHERS: Four teams — Green Bay in 2011, New England in 2007, Pittsburgh in 2004 and Minnesota in 1998 — advanced to the Super Bowl with a 15-1 regular-season record. None lifted the Lombardi Trophy.

POSSIBLE UNSUNG HERO FOR DENVER: Anderson. He might split time with Hillman in the backfield, but Denver's offense is best suited for his style, and if Anderson can average at least 5 yards per carry, it will go a long way in Denver keeping Newton off the field and perhaps denying him a championship.

POSSIBLE UNSUNG HERO FOR CAROLINA: Jared Allen. The defensive end has been fighting a foot fracture and won't be 100 percent, but his energy could add the sort of defensive depth that might simply overmatch Manning.

QUOTING DENVER: "I think certainly a lot of talk has been done. If we are counting on a pregame speech to help us get over the top on Sunday, then I think our practices haven't gone real well and our game plan is not real good. I know Saturday night is a special night because the hay is in the barn. I guess what I like the most about Saturday night is Sunday at 3:30 is getting even closer." — Manning

QUOTING CAROLINA: "You have to line up and play your brand of football. Peyton is going to make his checks, play his games and have his hand gestures. Sometimes it means something and sometimes it doesn't, so you just have to line up and play." — Kuechly

KEY STAT: Denver has allowed 30 points in a game just once this season.

PREDICTION: Denver 24, Carolina 20. Nothing in-depth here. I'm just afraid if I pick against the Broncos, Manning's lawyers will send a few goons in long black jackets after me.