UFC Fight Night 95 main card analysis: capsules and betting preview

UFC FIGHT NIGHT 95 MATCHUPS

A breakdown of the fights on the main card of Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 95 event in Brasilia, Brazil:

Cristiane “Cyborg” Justino (16-1, 1 No Contest) vs. Lina Lansberg (6-1)

· CLASS: Catchweight (140 pounds)

· LINE: Justino -1500

· STORYLINE: This is a great opportunity for Lansberg and she actually appears to be a capable striker on film. That’s both why she was given this fight and why she has little chance. Lansberg would prefer to keep the fight standing and that will enable Justino to showcase her muay Thai skills. There just aren’t many people in the world who can survive a round trading shots with Justino in small gloves. This isn’t quite as lopsided as the matchup between the T-Rex and the goat that was dropped into its cage at feeding time in “Jurassic Park,” but that’s the idea of the UFC’s matchmakers as Justino’s profile is built.

· PICK: Justino by first-round knockout

Renan Barao (35-4, 1 No Contest) vs. Phillipe Nover (12-6-1)

· CLASS: Featherweight

· LINE: Barao -450

· STORYLINE: The days of Barao’s dominance appear to be long gone. Once a winner of 32 straight fights, he has dropped three of his last four bouts. Two of those defeats came in bantamweight title bouts to T.J. Dillashaw, prompting a move up to featherweight where weight cuts would be more manageable. His 145-pound debut in May didn’t go much better, however, as he dropped a unanimous decision to Jeremy Stephens. Nover is a big step down in competition as Barao tries to get back on track. A loss here would be a huge red flag in terms of Barao’s ability to compete at the highest levels of the sport anymore. While Nover has a decent all-around skillset, he never lived up to the insane amount of hype placed on him while he was competing on “The Ultimate Fighter.” This is a must-win for Barao in his native Brazil..

· PICK: Barao by decision

Roy Nelson (22-13) vs. Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva (19-9, 1 No Contest)

· CLASS: Heavyweight

· LINE: Nelson -425

· STORYLINE: Nelson’s powerful overhand right combined with Silva’s notoriously weak chin makes this a simple fight to break down on the surface. At some point, the punch will land and the festivities will come to an abrupt end. It may not be that simple, however. Nelson, a Las Vegan, is now 40 years old. Power is often the last thing to go in a fighter, but Nelson hasn’t knocked anyone out in more than two years. If there was a time to muster one last great performance for Silva, this would be it. He is in desperate need of a win and will be fighting in his home country potentially for the last time. This is a huge line and there could be betting value on Silva. In the end, he just won’t be able to endure many punches. Silva has been knocked out in the first round in four of his last five fights and it’s quite possible it will happen again.

· PICK: Nelson by first-round knockout

Francisco Trinaldo (20-4) vs. Paul Felder (12-2)

· CLASS: Lightweight

· LINE: Trinaldo -125

· STORYLINE: Trinaldo has actually won six straight fights and is in the midst of a rather surprising career resurgence despite being well into his late 30s. The biggest key to his recent success has been fixing the conditioning issues that plagued him earlier in his career. Felder may put that to the test. He can keep up an incredible pace and would be best served to make this an action-packed brawl to truly test whether Trinaldo’s improved stamina can withstand the test. If he can keep up the pace and tire Trinaldo out, Felder could extend his winning streak to three.

· PICK: Felder by decision

Thiago Santos (13-4) vs. Eric Spicely (8-2)

· CLASS: Middleweight

· LINE: Santos -600

· STORYLINE: Santos is a knockout artist who was progressing nicely in the division until he took a late-notice fight to step way up in competition and fight Gegard Mousasi at UFC 200 in July. It didn’t go well for the Brazilian. Santos was knocked around and had has four-fight winning streak snapped. Now he returns to a level where he should be much more comfortable. Santos is probably too big of a favorite and should be avoided by bettors at the window. He is quite likely to find an opening for a big punch that can end the fight, though it won’t be easy.

· PICK: Santos by second-round knockout

Godofredo Pepey (13-4) vs. Mike de la Torre (14-5, 1 No Contest)

· CLASS: Featherweight

· LINE: Pepey -140

· STORYLINE: This is quite a contrast in styles as de la Torre is a tough, gritty scrapper going up against one of the organization’s flashiest brawlers in Pepey. The Brazilian will transition from flying and spinning strikes to pulling guard and looking for a tricky submission from the bottom. De la Torre will try to make Pepey pay for the aggression by landing counter-strikes at the end of his combos and punishing Pepey when he’s on his back. It very well could work. Pepey got far too wild in his attacks on his way to losing to Darren Elkins in July. De la Torre isn’t as good as Elkins, though, and he will simply be facing an athletic disadvantage in this fight. Pepey will find a submission somewhere over the 15 minutes.

· PICK: Pepey by third-round submission

ADAM HILL/LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL