Will Las Vegas home prices go up or down in 2026?

Home prices declined in the Las Vegas Valley in 2025 but should rise in 2026, according to a new report.

Zillow’s home price index for the valley showed a 2.1 percent drop in 2025, putting the average Las Vegas home for sale’s value at approximately $422,428 at the end of the year. However, the online real estate giant is expecting only a 0.6 percent increase in home prices in 2026.

Of note, the Las Vegas Realtors, which pull data from the Multiple Listing Service, had home prices breaking record highs multiple times this past year, hitting $488,995 in November.

Inventory increases were a huge part of the local market in the valley, said Kara Ng, a senior economist for Zillow, which put downward pressure on prices.

“Sellers vastly outnumbered buyers in Las Vegas in 2025. Inventory rose significantly over 2024, by about 22 percent, paving the way for a significant 2.1 percent drop in value for the typical home there,” she said.

Ng added Zillow thinks the local market in the valley could turn around this year, however a lot of it hinges on an expected decline in mortgage rates, which have not gone below 6 percent since 2022 during the wake of the pandemic when inflation rose to its highest level in decades.

“We’re forecasting that the Las Vegas market will firm up significantly (in 2026), enough to reverse the course of home value growth and end 2026 up 1.2 percent,” she said. “Behind this prediction is an expectation for mortgage rates to continue to decline on a gentle downward path toward 6 percent, which will raise shoppers’ purchasing power and bring in a few buyers from the margins.”

This could lead to more of a traditionally balanced market, added Ng.

“If Las Vegas sticks to its appreciation forecast, it would strike a perfect balance,” she said, “rising enough to let homeowners enjoy appreciation and slowly enough to be outpaced by incomes, allowing buyers to make up some ground on price growth.”

Home values flattened nationwide in 2025, according to Zillow’s report, adding it was welcome reprieve for buyers who have seen home prices skyrocket over the past few years.

“Buyers made real progress on costs,” said a Zillow spokesperson in an email response to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “In the Las Vegas metro, a mortgage payment for a typical home with a large 20 percent down payment, is $2,100. That’s $162 less than last year.”

Zillow, Redfin and Realtor.com have all put out their 2026 projections and not much movement is expected next year. Mortgage rates aren’t expected to drop enough to unlock the country’s housing market, new builds will continue to lag and prices will remain relatively elevated. This past year was the worst year for real estate sales in Southern Nevada since 2007 according to statistics from Las Vegas Realtors.

Realtor.com said in it’s report it predicts a “steadier” housing market next year and a slight shift to a more balanced market. Redfin’s report says 2026 will be the year of the “great housing reset” which means the start of a yearslong period of “gradual increases in home sales and normalization of prices as affordability gradually improves.”

Zillow said the housing market should “warm up” in 2026 with “buyers seeing a bit more breathing room and sellers benefitting from price stability and more consistent demand.”

Contact Patrick Blennerhassett at pblennerhassett@reviewjournal.com.