Lake Mead predicted to plunge to record low, newest projections show

Lake Mead is projected to sink below record lows in less than two years, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

By September 2027, the reservoir will dip to 1,038.48 feet above sea level, the federal government’s “most probable” projection for the next two years shows.

That’s more than 2 feet under the lake’s lowest level, recorded in the summer of 2022, signaling that water managers aren’t expecting snowpack in the Rocky Mountains to deliver the Colorado River system from an over-two-decade-long period of mega-drought any time soon.

Lake Mead is of particular importance to Las Vegas residents, as it’s the source of about 90 percent of Southern Nevada’s water supply. Though Nevada has the smallest share to draw from the Colorado River of any state by far, water managers pull more than its allowance by cashing in credits generated by treating water and sending it back into the reservoir.

The current structure for conservation among the seven states that rely on the river, established in 2007, is set to expire at the end of 2026. Changes to how shortage is divided could help stabilize a system that experts warn is on the brink of failure.

Officials from the seven states have been racing against time to create new guidelines, most recently failing to meet a deadline from the Trump administration to create a framework for a consensus agreement.

Contact Alan Halaly at ahalaly@reviewjournal.com. Follow @AlanHalaly on X.