Democrats take early voting lead in Nevada going into Election Day

By COLTON LOCHHEAD LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

November 5, 2016 - 8:28 pm

With early voting finished and tallied, registered Democrats in Nevada have taken a 46,000-vote lead over Republican voters heading into Election Day.

The lead is just a hair short of the 48,000-vote lead Democrats took into Election Day 2012. Democrat Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by 7 points statewide that year en route to winning his second term as president.

Early voting statistics are based on party affiliation, so the lead doesn’t mean presidential nominee Hillary Clinton or other Democrats on the ballot are necessarily ahead. However, in 2012, Obama won 92 percent of the Democrat vote, and Romney won 93 percent of the GOP vote.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump likely will have to perform exceptionally well with the 167,000 independent and third-party voters who voted early to overcome the GOP party vote deficit and defeat Clinton, UNLV political science professor David Damore said.

Friday proved to be a vigorous final day of early voting in Nevada. Polling locations across Southern Nevada stayed open past scheduled closing times to ensure all those standing in line could vote.

Nevada could serve as a proving ground to determine whether polling or early voting turnout serves as a better indicator for final election results. Recent polling has the race tightening. Some polls show Trump is significantly ahead in the wake of FBI Director James Comey announcing that the bureau had found more potentially classfied emails tied to the private server Clinton used during her time as secretary of state.

A CNN poll conducted between Oct. 27 and Nov. 1 showed Trump with a 6-point edge in Nevada. Those numbers are in stark contrast to previous polling, including a Review-Journal poll conducted from Oct. 20 to 23 that showed Clinton with a 7-point lead in Nevada. However, that poll was conducted before the FBI story broke.

Nevada’s down-ballot Republicans are hoping some dynamics from the 2012 election repeat in 2016.

Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., is running against Democrat and former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto to replace U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., in a race that could decide the balance of power in the upper house of Congress.

Republican Sen. Dean Heller faced a similar party-vote margin in 2012 after early voting, but he went on to defeat Democrat Shelley Berkley by a single point, or roughly 12,000 votes.

Overall, about 767,000 Nevadans already have voted in this year’s general election, up about 9 percent compared with 2012. That’s about 52 percent of the state’s active registered voters.

In Clark County, 527,183 ballots have been cast in person or by mail so far, which means more than half of the county’s registered voters already have participated in this year’s election. Clark County Democrats are driving the party’s statewide advantage, out-voting county Republicans by 72,000 ballots.

That margin has ramifications in the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts. Clark County residents make up 88 percent of the 4th District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Cresent Hardy is being challenged by Democratic state Sen. Ruben Kihuen. There are about 30,000 more registered Democrats in the 4th District than Republicans.

That margin is smaller in the 3rd District, where Heck is vacating his seat. Republican Danny Tarkanian faces Democrat Jacky Rosen in that district, which has 9,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Contact Colton Lochhead at clochhead@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4638. Follow @ColtonLochhead on Twitter.

News

Las Vegas NYE Restrictions and Enhanced Security

If you are planning to celebrate New Year's Eve on the Las Vegas Strip or Fremont Street, be aware that you are not allowed to bring backpacks, coolers, strollers or glass. There will also be an increase in security to ensure safe celebrations across town.

Henderson couple adds another school to their generosity

Bob and Sandy Ellis of Henderson, who donate to several Clark County School District schools, have added Matt Kelly Elementary in Las Vegas to their list of schools where every student gets new shoes, socks and a toy. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Jeffrey Martin Added To Nevada's Black Book

Martin was one of four men convicted of theft and cheating at gambling in 2016 in Clark County District Court and sentenced to prison. The Nevada Gaming Commission voted unanimously Thursday to include Martin in the black book.

Raiders Stadium Timelapse

Construction on the new Raiders stadium continues in Las Vegas.

Buffalo Wild Wings security video

Security footage from a Buffalo Wild Wings restaurant in southwest Las Vegas captured a driver who repeatedly crashed into a vehicle in a failed attempt to squeeze into a tight parking spot.

The Magical Forest at Opportunity Village

Opportunity Village's Magical Forest added 1 million lights and a synchronized music show visible from all over the forest this year. The holiday attraction, which began in 1991, has a train, rides, food and entertainment along with the light displays. (Heidi Knapp Rinella/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Navigating the new I-515 southbound to 215 Beltway ramp configuration

After opening at 5 a.m. Tuesday, Dec. 18, 2018, the new Interstate 515 southbound to the 215 Beltway westbound freeway ramp configuration caused confusion amongst motorist. Here’s how to navigate the new ramp. (Mick Akers/ Las Vegas Review-Journal).

A record breaking donation of nearly $9 million to Girls Scouts of Southern Nevada

A record breaking donation of property valued at nearly $9 million was made to the Girls Scouts of Southern Nevada by the Charles and Phyllis M. Frias Charitable Trust. Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal. @bizutesfaye

Kerry Clasby thanks the community for support after California fire damage

Intuitive Forager Kerry Clasby talks about the lessons of accepting help as she has gone through the Woolsey Fire disaster, in which she lost many of her belongings. About 100 people were on hand for an event that raised about $7,000.

Multi-agency DUI Strike Team focused solely on arresting impaired drivers

The newly formed DUI Strike Team made up of Las Vegas police officers and Nevada Highway Patrol Troopers have hit the streets looking for impaired drivers. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Christmas Tree Inspection

Nevada Division of Forestry employees search for illegally harvested Christmas trees in local lots during the holidays. (Michael Scott Davidson/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

One dead in a suspected DUI crash in east Las Vegas

The crash was reported just before 4:10 a.m. at Washington and Eastern avenues.

Vegas Homeless Remembered

Las Vegas vigil remembers 179 homeless people who died over the past year in Clark County. (David Guzman/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

A look inside Tesla’s Nevada Gigafactory

Tesla's Gigafactory east of Reno produces the batteries that fuel the company's electric cars. Production has created more than 7,000 jobs, and the campus that includes one of the largest buildings in the world is expected to triple in size by the time it is completed. Tesla Vice President Chris Lister leads a tour of the facility. (Bill Dentzer/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Garnet Interchange Ribbon Cutting

The Nevada Department of Transportation celebrated the completion of the $63 million I-15-US 93 Garnet Interchange project. The project includes a modified diverging diamond interchange and a 5-mile widening of US 93.

State Foresters Hunt for Record Trees

Urban foresters from the Nevada Division of Forestry hunt for record setting trees.

Rick Davidson directs NFR satellite feed

Rick Davidson directs the Wrangler NFR's live satellite feed from a production trailer outside the Thomas & Mack Center. (Patrick Everson)

Scott Boras, Bryce Harper's agent, speaks to media at baseball's winter meetings

Baseball agent Scott Boras updates media on the contract negotiations of his client Bryce Harper during baseball's winter meetings at Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Dec. 12, 2018. (Ron Kantowski/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Achievement School District

The achievement district faced strong opposition from traditional schools back in its beginnings in 2016. But with schools like Nevada Rise and Nevada Prep, it's slowly and steadily growing. Amelia Pak-Harvey/Las Vegas Review-Journal

Fresno State QB on record-breaking receiver

Fresno State quarterback Marcus McMaryion talks record-setting receiver KeeSean Johnson. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

The annual 'Shop with a Cop' event at Target

This year’s "Shop with a Cop" event gave about 40 children the chance to shop at Target alongside a North Las Vegas Police officers. Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal @Bizutesfaye

Melvin Dummar dead at 74

Melvin Dummar has died at 74. Dummar was famous for claiming to have saved Howard Hughes in a Nevada desert in 1967. Dummar claimed to have been left $156 million in Hughes’ will. The will mysteriously appeared after Hughes’ death in 1976. It was dismissed as a fake two years later. Dummar never saw a dime of the billionaire's fortune. Dummar died Saturday in Nye County.

Officer-involved shooting in Nye County

The Nye County Sheriff's Office gives information about a shooting in Pahrump on Thursday night after a man began firing shots outside of his home. (Nye County Sheriff's Office)

Law Enforcement Active Shooter Training Exercise

Multiple Las Vegas Valley law enforcement agencies held an active shooter drill at the Department of Public Safety’s Parole and Probation office on December 6, 2018. Officials set up the training exercise to include multiple active shooters, a barricaded suspect and multiple casualties. (Katelyn Newberg/ Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Public memorial service for Jerry Herbst

Archiving effort hits milestone at Clark County Museum

The Clark County Museum catalogs the final item from the bulk of Route 91 Harvest festival artifacts. (John Przybys/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Pearl Harbor survivor Edward Hall talks about his memories of Dec. 7, 1941

U.S. Army Corps Edward Hall, a 95-year-old survivor of Pearl Harbor talks about his memories of that horrific day. Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal @bizutesfaye

Final Route 91 Harvest festival remembrance objects catalogued at Clark County Museum

The last of the more than 17,000 items left at the makeshift memorial near the Las Vegas sign after the Oct. 1 shootings have been catalogued at the Clark County Museum in Las Vegas. The final item was a black-and-white bumper sticker bearing "#VEGASSTRONG. An additional 200 items currently on display at the museum will be catalogued when the exhibit comes down. (K.M. Cannon Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Dozier execution timeline

Scott Dozier was set to be executed July 11, 2018, at the Ely State Prison. Judge Elizabeth Gonzalez delayed the execution.

Politics

There's a new 'trump bump' at the White House

Journalists often crowd the White House briefing room expecting the latest news, but now the news is that many of the reporters are expecting. Steve Holland: “There’s such a baby boom going on in the White House Press Corps that we are always on standby for delivering a baby if necessary.” CBS’s Weijia Jiang. New York Post’s Marisa Schultz. The Washington Post’s Ashley Parker. Newsday’s Laura Figueroa. They’re just a few of the White House correspondents who are with child or who recently gave birth. Five more members of the White House Press Corps. delivered babies during Trump’s first two years: NPR’s Tamara Keith, CNN’s Pamela Brown, Fox News’ Kristin Fisher, CGTN’s Jessica Stone and NPR’s Ayesha Rascoe. Others are shy of publicity or not yet showing. But what’s behind this different kind of trump bump? For one, the moms-to-be are professional women whose careers are in a secure moment as they feel their biological clocks ticking. Another factor: political timing and family planning. There’s a short window between the 2016 and 2020 election cycles. Then there’s the matter that being a political journalist is stressful, and, well, certain activities can help alleviate that stress. Being pregnant in the White House briefing room definitely doesn’t make the job any easier, though. There are just 49 seats – and it’s not as if competitors are quick to offer up their coveted chairs. At one point, Ronica Cleary tweeted she was “less than enthusiastic about the nature of a room full of people who avoid offering a seat to a woman who is 371/2 weeks pregnant.” Even the press offices behind the press room are cramped. With the baby boom, the Christian Broadcasting Network’s small office now doubles as a breast bumping room. One journalist made headlines when she announced her pregnancy with an apparent jab at the president. Weijia Jiang’s baby bump was showing at a September press conference. When President Trump told her to “sit down,” she tweeted she couldn’t wait to teach her child that “when a man orders you to sit down because he doesn’t like what you’re saying, do anything but.”

Red Rock Canyon closed but accessible during partial government shutdown

The famed scenic loop of Red Rock National Conservation Area, which attracts tourists and climbers alike, was closed but accessible on Dec. 22, 2018, during a partial government shutdown forced by President Donald Trump. (Rio Lacanlale/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Attorney General’s office prepares for transition

Attorney General-elect Aaron Ford and outgoing Attorney General Adam Laxalt hold a small press briefing to discuss the transition of the office.

Robert Uithoven On What Happened To Nevada Republicans

Record Democrat turnout doomed Nevada Republican candidates in last month’s election. That turnout was driven, in part, by the left’s dislike for President Donald Trump. Trump’s campaign needs to make an early investment in Nevada to be competitive in 2020. That’s all according to Robert Uithoven, a Republican political consultant.

Nevada Republicans Look For Answers After Election Loss - The Right Take

Nevada Republicans suffered a heavy loss during the 2018 midterm elections to Democrats. Political opinion columnist Victor Joecks goes over what Republicans need to do to win their next election.

Denis details his plans, goals for Nevada education - Nevada Politics Today

The top priority for Nevada education is overhauling the Nevada Plan. There isn’t going to be a tax hike to fully implement weighted funding, and Read by 3 needs to be modified. That’s all according to Sen. Mo Denis, who will chair the Senate Education Committee. Denis also said he doesn’t now support extending $20 million in tax credits for the Opportunity Scholarship program.

Former President George H.W. Bush dies at 94

Former President George H.W. Bush has died at the age of 94. He died Friday night in Houston, about eight months after the death of his wife, Barbara.

Nevada Politics Today: John Malcolm talks about FIRST STEP Act, judicial vacancies

The FIRST STEP Act is currently before the Senate to help decrease recidivism rates. States that have passed similar measures have seen a decrease in crime. Conservatives also shouldn’t push Clarence Thomas to retire before President Donald Trump’s first term is over. That’s all according to John Malcom, a senior legal fellow with the Heritage Foundation. (Las Vegas Review-Journal)

The Right Take: Thoughts on Wealth, Inequality, and Thanksgiving

Listen to some politicians and you’d think that America’s wealth should be a source of anger, not thanksgiving.

Nevada Politics Today: Robert Fellner

Nevada’s Supreme Court has ruled that public employee retiree payouts are public records and we’re talking someone from the winning side.

Rosen discusses plans and goals as U.S. Senator

U.S. Senator-elect Jacky Rosen meets with Las Vegas reporters to discuss her win and priorities as Nevada’s next senator.

The Right Take: Republicans Need To Advantage Of Third Party Candidates

Nevada had a blue wave on Tuesday, but some of Nevada’s most conservative voters amplified its reach.

Amy Tarkanian gives passionate speech after husband's election loss

Amy Tarkanian speaks to a small crowd after her husband, Danny Tarkanian, concedes the race for the 3rd Congressional District.

U.S. Senator-Elect Jacky Rosen gives her victory speech

After defeating Dean Heller for the Nevada Senate seat, Jacky Rosen gives her victory speech at Cesars Palace in Las Vegas.

Senator Dean Heller concedes in 2018 election

Senator Dean Heller concedes in 2018 election.

Nevada Election 2018 | Election Update

Nevada 2018 Election Update. Live from Las Vegas Review-Journal Studio with the latest results from election night.

Susie Lee defeats Danny Tarkanian in Nevada's 3rd Congressional District

Susie Lee delivers her acceptance speech after defeating Danny Tarkanian for Nevada's 3rd Congressional District. (Rachel Aston/Las Vegas Review-Journal) @rookie__rae

Nevada Election 2018 | Election Update

Nevada Election 2018: A late night for those wanting election results.

Nevada Election 2018 | Election Update

Nevada Election 2018: A late night for those wanting election results. The latest from the Las Vegas Review Journal. Studio anchor Aaron Drawhorn joined by columnist Victor Joecks discussing voter turnout and impact.

Scenes from the Nevada GOP Election Party

Crowds gather at Nevada's GOP Election Party at South Point in Clark County. Michael Quine/ Las Vegas Review-Journal

Long lines in 2018 Nevada election in Las Vegas

Polling places in Clark County, Nev., saw long lines during the 2018 election.

Dennis Hof Wins, What Now?

Although Nevada Republicans have seen stronger elections, brothel owner Dennis Hof, who passed away unexpectedly October 16, managed to win his race for Assembly District 36 despite being dead. Hof ran as a Republican, calling himself the “Trump of Pahrump.” Although the colorful candidate and showman easily defeated his Democratic opponent from the grave, county commissioners from the three counties comprising District 36 must now meet to name Hof’s replacement.

Henderson voters talk about their voting experience

Henderson voters talk about their voting experience. Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal @bizutesfaye

Voters hit the polls at Downtown Summerlin in Las Vegas

Voters, including first time voters, were lined up before the doors opened at the voting center in a tent in the parking lot behind Dillard’s at Downtown Summerlin. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Election Day time off

Nevada companies are required to give employees one to three hours of paid time off on Election Day, depending on the distance between the place of work and a polling location. (Bailey Schulz/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

U.S. Senator Kamala Harris Speaks at UNLV Rally

U.S. Senator Kamala Harris speaks at a UNLV rally hosted by the Nevada State Democratic Party.

Early voting ends Friday in Clark County

The final day of early voting is Friday, Nov. 2. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 6. Voting locations will stay open past their scheduled closing time so long as people are waiting in line to cast ballots. (K.M. Cannon/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

President’s son visits Las Vegas in support of Republican candidates

Eric and Lara Trump show their support for U.S. Representative Cresent Hardy and other Republican candidates during a rally at the Nevada Republican Party’s Summerlin office.

Barack Obama Encourages Las Vegas To Vote Early

Former President Barack Obama visits Las Vegas to encourage people to vote early for the midterm elections.

Former Vice President Joe Biden Speaks Along With Democrat Candidates Speak At #Risenvote Rally

Former Vice President Joe Biden Speaks at the #RiseNVote rally to get voters to vote early.

Heller, Rosen participate in debate

The senatorial debate between Dean Heller and Jacky Rosen highlighted differences between the candidates, who spent much of Friday night exchanging barbs on health care, immigration and gun control. (Courtesy KLAS-TV, Las Vegas)

Ron Jeremy and Heidi Fleiss React to Dennis Hof's Death

Ron Jeremy and Heidi Fleiss speak about their friend and prominent brothel owner Dennis Hof's death at Dennis Hof's Love Ranch. (Benjamin Hager/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Nevada brothel owner Dennis Hof has died

Nevada brothel owner and Republican candidate for Nevada State Assembly District 36, Dennis Hof has died. He was 72. Nye County Sherriff's office confirmed. Hof owned Love Ranch brothel, located in Crystal, Nevada.

Duncan details his Safer Nevada plan, responds to campaign commercials

Nevada needs to increase the number of psychiatric ERs and the penalty for some serious crimes, according to Republican attorney general candidate Wes. He also contends that voters should consider Democrat candidate Aaron Ford’s multiple arrests and past tax liens.

Local

Marvin Menzies on UNLV's trip to Hawaii

UNLV basketball coach Marvin Menzies talks about the upcoming trip to Hawaii. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

Raiders Stadium Timelapse

Construction on the new Raiders stadium continues in Las Vegas.

Pinecrest Academy Horizon principal wins Milken Educator Award

Tony Sanchez on UNLV's recruiting class

UNLV football coach Tony Sanchez talks about his early signing class. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

The Magical Forest at Opportunity Village

Siegel Cares delivers bagels to families in need

Since Thanksgiving, Mark Lenoir of Siegel Cares, has been delivering leftover Bagelmania bagels to families staying at the Siegel Suites.

Dan Barnson steps down

Arbor View football coach Dan Barnson stepped down Friday after 12 seasons at the helm. Under Barnson, the Aggies won 104 games and became one of the top programs in Las Vegas. The Aggies went 12-2 in 2018 and won a region championship for the first time in program history. Barnson loves Friday nights, but said the 12-month commitment was getting exhausting.

NFR 2018 Highlights

NFR 2018 highlights from every round of this years rodeo.

NFR 2018 Round 10 Highlights

NFR 2018 Round 10 Highlights of the 2018 Wrangler National Finals Rodeo from the Thomas & Mack in Las Vegas, Nevada. (CBS Sports Network/PRCA)

NFR- Joe Frost

NFR Bull Rider Joe Frost talks about the difference in bulls and his family legacy with Cassie Soto before the last round of the National Finals Rodeo.

Herm Edwards on LV Bowl loss

Arizona State coach Herm Edwards talks about the loss in the Las Vegas Bowl. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

Fresno State linebacker George Helmuth after LV Bowl

Linebacker George Helmuth talks about Fresno State's turnaround. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

Youth cancer survivor receives gift bat at Winter Meetings

Cancer survivor Steven Mondragon, baseball player at Los Altos High in Hacienda Heights, California, received a complimentary bamboo bat during the Baseball Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Dec. 12, 2018. (Ron Kantowski/Las Vegas Review-Journal)

NFR Day 9 Highlights

Highlights from round 9 of the 2018 Wrangler National Finals Rodeo from the Thomas & Mack in Las Vegas, Nevada. (CBS Sports Network/PRCA)

NFR 2018- Will Lummus Leads in Steer Wrestling

As NFR 2018 enters day nine, steer wrestler Will Lummus continues to see his name at the top of the standings. Las Vegas Review Journal host Cassie Soto speaks with the Mississippi native about his excitement to be participating in his first ever NFR.

John Saccenti on the Las Vegas Bowl's future

Las Vegas Bowl executive director John Saccenti talks about the game's future. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

UNLV's Mbacke Diong on his offensive improvement

UNLV forward Mbacke Diong talks about his offensive improvement. Video by Mark Anderson/Las Vegas Review-Journal

NFR dirt is the most important part of the rodeo

NFR has bull riding, saddle bronc, barrel racing, tie down roping, steer wrestling, team roping, and bareback riding but one of the most important part of the rodeo according to construction maintenance manager Allen Rheinheimer is the dirt that they all take place in. Review-Journal sports writer Ed Graney chats with Rheinheimer and ground man John Jamison to get an inside look at the dirt in Thomas & Mack at the National Finals Rodeo.

North Las Vegas Pedestrian-cyclist Survey

North Las Vegas officials are seeking comments from residents in hopes of bettering their experience in the city. An online survey has been set up for citizens to share their opinions and give their suggestions.

NFR Day 8 Highlights

Highlights from round 8 of the 2018 Wrangler National Finals Rodeo from the Thomas & Mack in Las Vegas, Nevada. (CBS Sports Network/PRCA)

NFR - Wyatt Denny Talks About Representing Nevada

NFR Bareback Rider Wyatt Denny talks to host Cassie Soto about being the only Nevada representative in the NFR this year and his skiing talent.

Junior NFR Offers Breakaway Roping for Girls

Unlike the NFR at the Thomas and Mack Center, the Junior NFR at the Las Vegas Convention Center offers breakaway roping for girls 19-and under. This event allows the young women of rodeo one more event to participate in, aside from barrel racing.

North Las Vegas Pedestrian-Cyclist Survey

NFR Day 7 Highlights

Highlights from the 7th go-round of the 2018 National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2018. (CBS Sports Network/PRCA)

NFR- Jessica Routier

NFR Barrel Racer Jessica Routier talks about being at her first NFR, her horses, and her family with Cassie Soto in front of Thomas & Mack before round 7 of the National Finals Rodeo.

The Nevada State Museum

The Nevada State Museum of Las Vegas, located at the Springs Preserve, covers all eras of the state, from prehistoric to today.

NFR Day 6 Highlights

Highlights from the 6th go-round of the 2018 National Finals Rodeo in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Dec. 11, 2018. (CBS Sports Network/PRCA)

Las Vegas Bowl Teams Talk Shop at Maverick Helicopters

Arizona State, Fresno State talk to the media at Maverick Helicopters.

NFR- Will Lowe

NFR Bareback Rider Will Lowe talks with Aaron Drawhorn about his 15 years at the NFR, starting to ride at age 7, and renewing his wedding vowels this year in Las Vegas before night 6 of the National Finals Rodeo.