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Trump thumps Biden in Nevada, poll says

Updated May 14, 2024 - 7:15 pm

A poll released Monday shows former President Donald Trump has a 12-point lead in Nevada over President Joe Biden.

The poll, which was conducted April 28 to May 9 and surveyed around 600 Nevada voters, found that if the election were held today, 50 percent would pick Trump and 38 percent would pick Biden in a head-to-head matchup.

If third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is thrown into the mix, that gap widens, with 41 percent voting for Trump, 27 percent for Biden and 12 percent for RFK Jr.

Trump also was leading in four of the five other battleground states, the New York Times/Siena College poll showed. He led in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia but had the largest gap in Nevada. Biden led in Wisconsin.

Monday’s poll is a sharp contrast to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill swing state poll of 1,000 Nevada voters published about two weeks ago showing Biden and Trump neck and neck, revealing the difficulty of polling in Nevada.

In a statement in response to the latest poll, Democratic pollster Geoff Garin said inconsistency is the only consistency when it comes to public polls.

“These results need to be weighed against the 30-plus polls that show Biden up and gaining — which is exactly why drawing broad conclusions about the race based on results from one poll is a mistake,” he said in a statement provided to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “The reality is that many voters are not paying close attention to the election and have not started making up their minds — a dynamic also reflected in today’s poll.”

Karoline Leavitt, national press secretary for the Trump campaign, said more than 100 polls show Trump is crushing Biden, including in Nevada.

“President Trump remains laser focused on winning in November to make America great again,” Leavitt said in a statement.

Close Senate race

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, also shows how close Nevada’s contested Senate race could be. When asked which Senate candidate they would vote for, 40 percent said Sen. Jacky Rosen and 38 percent said Sam Brown, the GOP frontrunner in the June 11 primary. Twenty-three percent remain unsure.

Poll demographics

In Clark County — which generally votes Democrat — 47 percent of the respondents said they are leaning toward Trump in a matchup with Biden, while 39 percent said they are leaning toward Biden. Trump dominates rural Nevada 66 percent to 30 percent and is leading in the other blue area of Nevada, Washoe County, 49 percent to 35 percent.

Of the Nevadans surveyed, 39 percent were independent voters, 26 percent were Republican and 25 percent were Democrats, according to the poll.

Eighteen percent were between the ages of 18 and 29, 25 percent were between 30 and 44, 29 percent were 45 to 64, and 23 percent were 65 and up. Fifty-two percent were white, 22 percent were Hispanic, 9 percent were Black, and 14 percent were other.

On the issues

The economy remains the No. 1 issue for Nevadans, with 22 percent of respondents saying it is the most important issue in deciding whom they’re going to vote for in November.

Abortion rights also remain popular in Nevada, where a state statute protects abortions up to 24 weeks into pregnancy. Seventy percent say it should be legal, and 24 percent said it should be illegal.

The survey also reveals how Nevadans feel about the Israel-Palestine conflict. When asked which side they sympathize with more, 36 percent of the respondents said Israel, 27 percent said Palestine, 19 percent said both equally, and 18 percent didn’t know.

Response from Democratic Party

Nevada State Democratic Party Spokesperson Tai Sims said Nevada Democrats have built a stronger campaign infrastructure than Trump’s campaign.

“Nevada Democrats never take any vote for granted and we will continue to grow our coalitions that will ultimately lead us to victory in November,” Sims said in a statement.

A previous version of this story misstated the number of weeks abortion is protected in Nevada.

Contact Jessica Hill at jehill@reviewjournal.com. Follow @jess_hillyeah on X.

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