Sandoval in tricky spot for State of State

Gov. Brian Sandoval is going to have to call on all his patience, all his skills of persuasion and all of his substantial political capital to navigate the legislative traps that await his reform agenda.

And those are just the ones set by his own party.

As if the Republican didn’t have enough challenges in improving public schools, making the state more attractive to new business and putting the Great Recession behind Nevada once and for all, Sandoval also faces a growing intra-party feud that threatens to embarrass his administration and destroy the GOP’s once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape state government.

Sandoval is the only person capable of reversing this division, or at least halting its spread. And he can start that process by saying the right things in his Thursday State of the State address.

Aside from his own re-election, Sandoval’s highest priority in November’s vote was winning a Republican majority in the state Senate. Democrats controlled both houses of the Legislature, and Sandoval needed one of those chambers in his corner to have any chance at bolstering school choice and making government more accountable. But voters delivered a result no one saw coming: Republican majorities in the Senate and the Assembly.

The Assembly victories were so shocking that many newly elected GOP lawmakers initially had no idea how to get in touch with each other. Some candidates who received no financial or campaign support from Sandoval or other established party figures scored upsets anyway. And that lack of support — the absence of developed relationships and the trust, loyalty and respect that accompany them — fractured the Assembly caucus from the start.

By now, the caucus’ leadership crisis is well-documented. Speaker-in-waiting Pat Hickey was rejected in favor of Ira Hansen, who stepped down because of his racially insensitive and homophopic rants as a newspaper columnist and talk radio host. And now the latest speaker-designate, John Hambrick, faces a potential mid-session recall election over his decision to remove Michele Fiore from leadership over her personal tax problems and public insubordination.

About half of Assembly Republicans are lined up behind Sandoval. About half aren’t. Some members are no longer on speaking terms. Some members are being threatened with the loss of committee assignments and the deaths of their bills. The chaos has hurt Republican fundraising and given reeling Nevada Democrats a wealth of campaign fodder for 2016.

The dispute is rooted in positions on tax increases. On Thursday, Sandoval is expected to propose a tax restructuring that boosts state spending by hundreds of millions of dollars. The moderate wing of the Assembly GOP caucus is with Sandoval, the arch-conservative wing isn’t. And that creates math problems for Sandoval.

Republicans control the Assembly by a 25-17 margin. Tax increases require two-thirds support for passage, or 28 votes. Sandoval will need Democratic votes regardless, but if Assembly conservatives abandon him, he’ll need the full support of Democrats, who might try to leverage passage of some of their bills in return.

But Sandoval will need the votes of conservatives to pass conservative reforms. Collective bargaining limits. A state pension overhaul. Major school choice initiatives. If the marginalization of those conservatives is especially merciless, some of them will abandon Sandoval out of spite. The loss of five Republican votes in the lower chamber turns a GOP majority into a minority. GOP bills will die.

On Thursday, Sandoval will release his budget and address the state. He’ll try to unify all Nevadans behind his vision, but he needs to try to unify the Assembly as well. His State of the State speech must lay out common ground with conservatives. His bold ideas can’t be tied exclusively to higher spending. If Sandoval can turn bad blood into goodwill, the Feb. 2 start of the 2015 Legislature might be a good-news story instead of a disaster in the making.

NewsFeed reminder

Walk-in attendees are welcome at Monday’s first NewsFeed policy breakfast, which will preview the 2015 Legislature. I will moderate a discussion with Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, Senate Minority Leader Aaron Ford, Assembly Speaker-designate John Hambrick and Asssembly Minority Leader Marilyn Kirkpatrick. The program, co-sponsored by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the Las Vegas Metro Chamber of Commerce, runs from 7:30 to 9 a.m. at the Four Seasons Hotel Acacia Ballroom, inside Mandalay Bay on the Strip. Tickets cost $50 at the door.

Glenn Cook (gcook@reviewjournal.com) is the Las Vegas Review-Journal’s senior editorial writer. Follow him on Twitter: @Glenn_CookNV.