2018 NFL betting breakdown: Week 10

Updated November 10, 2018 - 3:45 pm

Lions (3-5) at Bears (5-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Bears -6½, 44

Analysis: The Lions are trying to salvage what has become another disastrous season in Detroit. They can start their journey to respectability by knocking off the first-place Bears. This might be a good spot to take the points, as Chicago probably will be more focused on next week’s game against the Vikings that will put the winner in the driver’s seat in the NFC North. As easy as this looks, the Bears haven’t beaten Detroit since Week 4 of the 2016 NFL season.

By the numbers: The Lions are 15-6 against the spread the week after scoring 15 points or fewer. … The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Pick: Bears 23, Lions 20

—–—

Saints (7-1) at Bengals (5-3)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Saints -5½, 54

Analysis: A week after beating the perceived best team in the NFL in the Rams, the Saints head to Cincinnati to face a Bengals team looking to create respect for themselves despite trailing the Steelers by one game in the AFC North. The Saints made news by signing former Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant, driving the number up from -4½. The number has stayed at 5½ despite Bryant suffering a torn Achilles tendon in Friday’s practice. I always have been a believer in going against a team after a major public signing, especially the week after a huge win.

By the numbers: The Saints have failed to cover their last five meetings against the Bengals. … Cincinnati is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.

Pick: Saints 27, Bengals 23

———

Falcons (4-4) at Browns (2-6-1)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Falcons -6, 50½

Analysis: Atlanta has played better lately, but to ask it to cover six points on the road is something I’m not comfortable doing, even against the Browns. The Falcons are flying high after a road thrashing of the Redskins, but they haven’t shown they can put it together two weeks in a row. Bettors thought the Falcons were the play after covers against the Panthers and Buccaneers, but they failed to cover the following two weeks against the Saints and Giants.

By the numbers: Atlanta has failed to cover eight of its last 11 road games. … The Browns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Falcons 24, Browns 23

———

Patriots (7-2) at Titans (4-4)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Patriots -6½, 47

Analysis: I’ve learned a few things over the years, and one of those has been to never go against Tom Brady and the Patriots, who have covered 37 of their last 53 games. The reason is simple: Brady’s ability to protect the ball. Since 2010, he has the best attempt-to-turnover ratio (79.2-1) in the league. This means that to get a cover against the Pats, you better hope Brady has an uncharacteristic day or your team has the ability to match New England score for score.

By the numbers: The Patriots have covered five straight games against the Titans. … Tennessee is on a 7-0 over run at home on fewer than six days rest.

Pick: Patriots 34, Titans 24

———

Jaguars (3-5) at Colts (3-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Colts -3, 46½

Analysis: Even though both teams are coming off bye weeks, it’s been a trend of mine to go against the team coming off a nontraditional game (Jacksonville last played in London), especially when it’s being asked to go on the road again. The Jaguars have beaten the Colts in four of the last five meetings, but only once in that stretch did they beat Indianapolis when Andrew Luck started. The Colts have 11 sacks in three home games compared with 10 in five road games. Indianapolis’ defensive front will lead the way for Luck to avenge last year’s 27-0 home loss to the Jaguars.

By the numbers: The favorite has covered 11 of the last 15 meetings. … The Colts are on an 8-2 ATS run vs. teams on a losing streak of at least four games.

Pick: Colts 23, Jaguars 17

———

Cardinals (2-6) at Chiefs (8-1)

Time: 10 a.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Chiefs -16½, 49½

Analysis: There’s no doubt that Kansas City has the offensive weapons to cover this number. But with a trip to Mexico City to face the Rams on the horizon, my guess is they won’t give Los Angeles much to look at on offense. The major question mark in Kansas City is on defense, which ranks 31st in the NFL in yards allowed per game (427). The Chiefs will make a statement on that side of the ball against the league’s worst offense.

By the numbers: The home team has covered the last six meetings. … The Chiefs are on a 7-0 cover streak against the NFC West.

Pick: Chiefs 24, Cardinals 6

———

Bills (2-7) at Jets (3-6)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jets -7, 36½

Analysis: Last place is on the line in the AFC East when the Bills and Jets clash. No matter how bad the Jets are, I can’t trust newly signed quarterback Matt Barkley to lead Buffalo’s offense. He’ll get the start over Nathan Peterman, as injured rookie Josh Allen has been ruled out again. Barkley will become the fourth quarterback to start for the team this season and third in three weeks. It will be his first start in two years.

By the numbers: The Jets are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games. … The Bills are 8-18-1 ATS before an opponent’s bye week.

Pick: Jets 21, Bills 10

———

Redskins (5-3) at Buccaneers (3-5)

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -3, 51

Analysis: The public has made their opinion known all week with the money coming in on the Buccaneers against the decimated Redskins. Even though Washington is fighting injuries, I can’t rely on Tampa Bay’s defense, which gives up a league-high 34.4 points per game and 39.5 ppg the last two weeks. Adrian Peterson bounces back to lead the Redskins.

By the numbers: Washington has covered seven of its last eight after a SU loss of at least 14 points. … Favorites are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.

Pick: Redskins 26, Buccaneers 23

———

Chargers (6-2) at Raiders (1-7)

Time: 1:05 p.m., KVVU-5

Line/Total: Chargers -10, 50

Analysis: Sometimes in betting, what you see is what you get, which means I can’t get in the way of a Chargers team that has won five straight games by an average of 10.2 points. Oakland has lost four straight as its focus is more about winning in Las Vegas than in its current residence. The Raiders would be winless if not for stealing a victory over the Browns. Oakland hasn’t been in a game since then.

By the numbers: Los Angeles has covered 12 of the last 16 meetings in Oakland. … The Chargers are on a 7-0 ATS run on the road in November.

Pick: Chargers 26, Raiders 14

———

Dolphins (5-4) at Packers (3-4-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Packers -10, 47½

Analysis: The Packers are still not right on offense, though it appears as if Aaron Rodgers is getting stronger. But for me to lay double digits, I need to know that the team will give me a complete 60 minutes. That hasn’t been the Packers’ strength, especially in the fourth quarter. Also, Green Bay hasn’t been sound on special teams or defense.

By the numbers: The Packers have failed to cover eight of their last 11 games. … The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

Pick: Packers 24, Dolphins 21

———

Seahawks (4-4) at Rams (8-1)

Time: 1:25 p.m., KLAS-8

Line/Total: Rams -9½, 50

Analysis: The Seahawks played the Rams tough in a 33-31 home loss in October. Todd Gurley ran for 77 yards on 22 attempts in that game. I anticipate the Rams will showcase Gurley again in an effort to control the time of possession, something it didn’t do in the first meeting. Aside from keeping Gurley in check in the first meeting, the Seahawks’ run defense has been unreliable, and I can’t see it containing the Rams’ ground game again.

By the numbers: The home team has covered eight of the last 11 meetings. … The under is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings.

Pick: Rams 26 Seahawks 14

———

Cowboys (3-5) at Eagles (4-4)

Time: 5:20 p.m., KSNV-3

Line/Total: Eagles -7, 43½

Analysis: The Eagles have not played since an Oct. 28 win in London over the Jaguars. Philadelphia has been historically good the week after a bye, going 16-3 SU, but again I don’t think teams are as strong after playing overseas. The teams split last season’s series, with the Eagles dealing Dallas a 37-9 blowout loss in which Dak Prescott threw three interceptions and fumbled. This one will be closer, but there are too many internal issues in Dallas to expect an upset.

By the numbers: The road team has won and covered 10 of the last 13 meetings.

Pick: Eagles 26, Cowboys 21

———

Giants (1-7) at 49ers (2-7)

Time: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN

Line/Total: 49ers -3, 44½

Analysis: Let’s hold up a little on the Nick Mullens hype until we see the San Francisco quarterback light up someone other than the Raiders. The Giants aren’t exactly putting fear into opposing quarterbacks, but this still will be a step up in class for Mullens. I’m more willing to back Eli Manning, who is gunning for his third straight 300-yard passing game. I expect Odell Beckham Jr. to have a huge game.

By the numbers: The 49ers have failed to cover 14 of their last 19 home games. … The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

Pick: Giants 26, 49ers 20

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