weather icon Clear

2019 NFL betting breakdown: Week 1

Doug Fitz, Systemplays.com, @fitz_doug

Falcons at Vikings

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Vikings -3½, 47

Analysis: This season might be the make or break campaign for highly touted quarterback Kirk Cousins. He had an underwhelming 2018 with the Vikings, who missed the playoffs after being considered a legitimate NFC Super Bowl contender. I expect Mike Zimmer and company to start the 2019 season with a much more hungry attitude and a strong Week 1 performance.

By the numbers: Under Zimmer, the Vikings are 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread hosting NFC South opponents. … Zimmer is 7-2 straight up and ATS at home in September and 32-21 straight up, 37-14-2 ATS in his career in nondivision games, including a 21-5-1 record ATS at home.

Pick: Vikings 28, Falcons 17


Redskins at Eagles

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Eagles -10, 44

Analysis: I’ve been hearing all week about how the Eagles should destroy the Redskins, and many people are acting as if this game already has been played. The number has moved up toward the favorite offering even more value on the Redskins.

By the numbers: Since 2005, division underdogs in Weeks 1 through 3 are 133-85-10 ATS (61 percent). … Redskins QB Case Keenum is 15-8-4 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Pick: Eagles 28, Redskins 24


Bills at Jets

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Jets -3, 40½

Analysis: Bills QB Josh Allen looks far better and more comfortable judging by his preseason performance. New QB coach Ken Dorsey, who comes over from Carolina, should further Allen’s progression. The Bills win straight up.

By the numbers: While I don’t believe solely in preseason stats, perfect preseason teams such as Buffalo was this year are 11-7-1 ATS as road underdogs since 1982. … Buffalo also fits into the above mentioned system of division dogs in Weeks 1 through 3 at 133-85-10 ATS (61 percent) since 2005.

Pick: Bills 21, Jets 17


Ravens at Dolphins

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Ravens -6½, 40

Analysis: This is a tough game to handicap. Most so-called experts expect the Dolphins to be the NFL’s worst team, and most expect the Ravens to be one of the most improved teams behind QB Lamar Jackson. I expect a closer game mainly because of the expected typical hot, humid South Florida weather, and I think Miami can sneak under the number.

By the numbers: Miami is 4-2 straight up and ATS over the past three seasons and 45-41 ATS in September.

Pick: Ravens 27, Dolphins 20


49ers at Buccaneers

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Buccaneers -1½, 50½

Analysis: With new coach Bruce Arians and the much better looking QB Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers’ season is looking more promising. Winston greatly improved over his last seven games in 2018, throwing for 13 touchdowns and four interceptions with a 91.3 passer rating. San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off a season-ending knee injury, and he looked inconsistent in preseason.

By the numbers: The 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. … The 49ers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games against NFC opponents. … The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, 49ers 21


Chiefs at Jaguars

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Chiefs -3, 50½

Analysis: The Jaguars should be improved now that they finally sent QB Blake Bortles packing. Nick Foles is a significant upgrade, but this number seems relatively cheap on the Chiefs. I rarely back road favorites, but I can’t see the Jaguars hanging against the explosive Kansas City offense.

By the numbers: Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 96-58-1 ATS on the road, including a 21-9-1 ATS mark in September.

Pick: Chiefs 38, Jaguars 17


Titans at Browns

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Browns -5, 45

Analysis: We shall see if all the offseason hype on the Browns shows up in this game. I’m not sure if the hype is justified, but I do know the Browns have some of the best talent in the league and Baker Mayfield is without question one of the best quarterbacks. I think the Browns want to justify the hype and come up with a strong opening-day performance.

By the numbers: The Browns are 1-18-1 straight up in season openers since returning to the NFL in 1999.

Pick: Browns 28, Titans 20


Rams at Panthers

Time: 10 a.m.

Line/Total: Rams -1½, 50

Analysis: The Rams could be facing a serious regression this season. QB Jared Goff is overrated. Panthers QB Cam Newton appears to be healthy, and I think he’ll have a great comeback year.

By the numbers: Teams that lost in the Super Bowl are 17-30-2 ATS as road favorites in nondivision games since 2000. … Carolina is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games against the Rams, including a 5-0 ATS mark at home.

Pick: Panthers 24, Rams 17


Lions at Cardinals

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Lions -3, 46½

Analysis: This is arguably a battle of the two worst teams in the NFL. I can’y justify the Lions being a road favorite against anyone, even with the short spread. The Cardinals should win this game outright, but this is hardly a ringing endorsement.

By the numbers: The Cardinals are 8-1 ATS at home against the Lions. … The Lions are 5-13 straight up and 7-11 ATS in road opening games, including an 0-4 ATS record as favorites.

Pick: Cardinals 31, Lions 28


Bengals at Seahawks

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Seahawks -9½, 44½

Analysis: The Seahawks are obviously the superior team, but the number is way too high. The Bengals keep this game closer than most people expect, and the line value gives them the edge.

By the numbers: Under QB Andy Dalton, the Bengals are 17-11 straight up and 17-8-3 ATS in September, including 11-3-1 ATS as underdogs. … The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in September against NFC opponents.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Bengals 24


Colts at Chargers

Time: 1:05 p.m.

Line/Total: Chargers -6½, 45

Analysis: The line move is highly overadjusted and unjustified in moving from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Brissett had a decent 2017 replacing Luck, who missed the season with injuries. The Colts still have an excellent offensive line, so Brissett should get ample time to throw. The Colts should rally around their beleaguered starter. I’ll call for an outright upset.

By the numbers: Since moving to Los Angeles, the Chargers are 5-5 straight up and 2-8 ATS at home in games with a total of more than 43 points, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points.

Pick: Colts 27, Chargers 24


Giants at Cowboys

Time: 1:25 p.m.

Line/Total: Cowboys -7, 45½

Analysis: The Ezekiel Elliot holdout has to be a huge distraction and negative for the Cowboys. He hasn’t been with the team during any of the preseason, and his talent will take some time to come back to form, if it does at all. These teams usually play each other close even without all the added drama.

By the numbers: The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last five season openers. … Dallas coach Jason Garrett is 17-33-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 3-11-1 ATS when favored by seven or more points. … In Weeks 1 through 3, division underdogs are 133-85-10 ATS (61 percent) since 2005.

Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 21


Steelers at Patriots

Time: 5:20 p.m.

Line/Total: Patriots -5½, 49

Analysis: Although betting on Super Bowl champions in Week 1 has been good, this number is too high and the Patriots historically struggle in their first couple of games each season.

By the numbers: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is 34-18-3 ATS in his career as an underdog, winning 30 of those games straight up. … The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS as an underdog of three or more in Sunday night games. … The Patriots are 7-12 ATS as home favorites on Sunday nights, including 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games.

Pick: Patriots 38, Steelers 36



Texans at Saints

Time: 4:10 p.m.

Line/Total: Saints -6½, 52½

Analysis: The Saints have been downright horrible for some reason in their recent season openers. The Texans should be able to take advantage and keep the game close. The number is too high and based on the Saints’ overall reputation.

By the numbers: The Saints are 0-5 straight up and ATS in their last five season openers. … They’re also 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday night games. … Blindly betting underdogs in season-opening Monday night games is 35-17-1 ATS.

Pick: Saints 34, Texans 30


Broncos at Raiders

Time: 7:15 p.m.

Line/Total: Broncos -2½, 42½

Analysis: All the numbers point to Denver, but I’ll give the Raiders a weak endorsement since they’re back to a small underdog after Saturday’s release of Antonio Brown.

By the numbers: In Weeks 1 through 3, division underdogs are 133-85-10 ATS (61 percent) since 2005.

Pick: Raiders 24, Broncos 23

Don't miss the latest Raiders news. Like our Vegas Nation page
Sports Betting Spotlight Videos
Raiders Videos
Latest Allegiant Stadium Drone Video And Updates - Video
New drone footage of the Raiders Allegiant Stadium was released after new details were unveiled to the Vegas Stadium Authority Board.
Raiders relying on veteran leadership for upcoming road stretch - VIDEO
After Sunday's loss to the Chiefs, the Raiders are leaning on their veteran players to help the team get back on track in their upcoming stretch of games away from the Coliseum. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders lose 28-10 to the Chiefs in Final Game on the Baseball Diamond - VIDEO
The Raiders lost to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the second game of the season. The Raiders will be hitting the road next week for a stretch of games away from Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum including a game in London. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
With Wide Receiver JJ Nelson out Keelan Doss may see the field Sunday- VIDEO
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden announced that wide receiver J.J Nelson would be out on Sunday, opening the door for Keelan Doss to see the field for the first time on the team's 53-man roster. Gruden also talked about viewing Tyrell Williams at WR1. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders put Abram on IR, Sign Juston Burris - VIDEO
The Raiders have officially put rookie safety Johnathan Abram on IR and in a corresponding move signed defensive back Juston Burris. Cornerback Gareon Conley is expected to play in Sunday's game while wide receiver J.J. Nelson is out with an ankle injury. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders hold final practice before facing the Chiefs Sunday - Full Gruden Presser - VIDEO
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden spoke after Friday's practice ahead of facing Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in Oakland. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders look to play disciplined against Mahomes, Olson talks O-Line and bringing Keelan Doss back - VIDEO
Raiders defensive coordinator Paul Guenther talked about staying disciplined when playing Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs offense. Offensive coordinator Greg Olson praised the offensive line, and spoke about bringing back wide receiver Keelan Doss. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Gareon Conley limited in practice, expected to play against Chiefs - VIDEO
Raiders cornerback Gareon Conley expected to play against the Chiefs after being listed as limited in Thursday's practice. Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson talks about Kolton Miller and his matchup against Frank Clack in Sunday's game. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review Journal)
Derek Carr on Darren Waller - VIDEO
After Monday night's victory over the Broncos, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr opened up about what tight end Darren Waller's story meant to him and what it felt like to see him have become a big part of the win over their division rival's in Denver. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Johnathan Abram Out For Season With Injury - VIDEO
Raiders rookie safety Johnathan Abram will be placed on season ending IR with a shoulder injury sustained in Monday night's game against the Broncos. Cornerback Gareon Conley participated in today's practice after being carted off during the Broncos game. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Gruden reflects on his 100th Career win before preparing for the Chiefs - VIDEO
The Raiders' Monday Night Football victory over the Denver Broncos marked Head Coach Jon Gruden's 100th career win as a head coach in the NFL. Gruden was pleased with the performances of Tight End Darren Waller and rookie Running Back Josh Jacobs, but realizes the Kansas City Chiefs present a tough challenge on a short week. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Derek Carr and Jon Gruden ready to stop addressing Antonio Brown - VIDEO
Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden and Quarterback Derek Carr are both ready to move on from addressing former WR Antonio Brown and maintain focus on the team after season opening victory over the Denver Broncos. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders cap chaotic week with a win - VIDEO
After a chaotic week leading to the departure of WR Antonio Brown, the Raiders handled business in their final home opener in Oakland with a victory over division rival Denver Broncos. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Gruden and Carr Speak after Victory over Broncos - Full Presser – VIDEO
Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden and Quarterback Derek Carr speak after the team's season opening victory over the Denver Broncos. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders Watch Party At The Linq - Video
Raiders Fans gather at the Linq to watch the team's first game against the Denver Broncos during Monday night football.
Johnathan Abram On Preparing For First Game Against Broncos - Video
Raiders safety Johnathan Abram talks about preparing for the 2019-2020 season of the NFL and the goals he hopes to accomplish this season with the team.
Antonio Brown's Raiders era is over before it begins
Antonio Browns release from the Raiders capped off a chaotic week as the Raiders try to prepare for their season opener against the Broncos. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Jon Gruden Addresses Antonio Brown Release - VIDEO
The Raiders cut Wide Receiver Antonio Brown and Jon Gruden said he was disappointed that he never got the opportunity to coach him, however Gruden is excited about the upcoming season opener. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Raiders release Antonio Brown - VIDEO
The Antonio Brown saga with the Raiders came to an end when the team released the wide receiver this morning. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Five Raiders to Watch on Defense in 2019
As the Raiders 2019 debut on Monday Night Football nears, get geared up for the season by checking out five defensive players to watch. (Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Olson expected Antonio Brown to play Monday night throughout controversy, Guenther praises multiple leaders on defense - VIDEO.
Offensive Coordinator Raiders Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson see's the receiver position as a strength and expected Antonio Brown to play in the season opener. Defensive Coordinator Paul Guenther praises his defensive players who have an "A-Type Personalities" (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Greg Olson and Paul Guenther speak after practice - Raiders Press Conference 9/6
Raiders Offensive and Defensive Coordinators Greg Olson and Paul Guenther speak after practice from Raiders HQ in Alameda, CA. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Antonio Brown expected to play in Raiders Season Opener - VIDEO
After making an apology to the team in meetings this morning, Antonio Brown is expected to play Monday Night Against the Denver Broncos in the Raiders season opener. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Jon Gruden frustrated with Antonio Brown situation, but focused on the Broncos - VIDEO
Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden expressed his frustrations with the Antonio Brown news, however he is getting the team prepared for the season opener and is focused on a Monday Night Football victory over the Broncos. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Vegas Nation Mailbag: Antonio Brown Goes After Mike Mayock, MNF preview
Raiders wide receiver Antonio Brown continues to make headlines as an altercation took place between him and general manager Mike Mayock over fines imposed on no. 84. Review-Journal sports columnist Ed Graney and Heidi Fang talk about the developing situation with Brown, preview their Monday Night Football contest against the Denver Broncos, and answer questions from fans.
Raiders General Manger Mike Mayock addresses Antonio Brown news- VIDEO
Raiders General Manager Mike Mayock called a surprise media availability to address the Antonio Brown possible suspension. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Derek Carr details chemistry with Antonio Brown, praises Von Miller and Bradley Chubb - VIDEO
Raiders quarterback Derek Carr details his relationship with wide receiver Antonio Brown, speaking highly of Brown's work ethic. He also talked about what it is like working with a receiver of Brown caliber, and praised the Denver Broncos defensive stars Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Antonio Brown fined as Raiders begin preparing for Denver - VIDEO
Raiders Wide Receiver Antonio Brown was fined early this morning for missing team walk-through's in the preseason,and posted his not from General Manager Mike Mayock on his Instagram account in the newest development of the Antonio Brown saga. The Raiders also began preparing for their Monday Night Football match-up against division rival Denver Broncos. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Vegas Nation: The Raiders Top 5 Opponents in 2019 - Video
Ahead of the Raiders first season game of 2019, we take a look at the team's toughest opponents on their schedule, what they bring to the table and how the Silver and Black can get an edge on them.
Jon Gruden looks forward to working with DeShone Kizer, talks Keelan Doss leaving - VIDEO
Raiders Head Coach Jon Gruden said he is looking forward to working with new quarterback DeShone Kizer after placing Nathan Peterman on IR with an elbow injury. He also spoke about Hard Knocks star Keelan Doss, wishing the Alameda native the best in Jacksonville after an unsuccessful attempt to keep him on the practice squad. (Le'Andre Fox/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Steel cables will hoist roof at Allegiant Stadium - VIDEO
Stainless steel cables are being put into place at Allegiant Stadium to begin the process of putting the roof on the 65,000-seat stadium in Las Vegas. Stadium Chief Operating Officer Don Webb explains how the cables will be used to get the roof put on the future home of the Raiders and UNLV football. (Heidi Fang/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
Johnathan Abram's wife on his "Hard Knocks" appearance
Johnathan Abram's wife thinks her husband was annoying on the first episode of the Raiders on HBO's "Hard Knocks."
Raiders Johnathan Abram On Moving to Las Vegas - Video
Raiders safety Johnathan Abram talks about the team moving to Las Vegas and how he is ready to bring his game to the desert in the new Allegiant Stadium.
Raiders Safety Johnathan Abram and Wife Bri'Anna On Being A Football Family - Video
Raiders safety Johnathan Abram and his wife Bri'Anna sit down to talk about being a football family and what it means for their daughter and how it changed their lifestyle.
Allegiant celebrates naming deal with tailgate party
Allegiant Air employees celebrate with a tailgate party after the company’s naming deal with the Raiders for the new Las Vegas stadium.
A look at the Raiders headquarters under construction in Henderson
Don Webb, chief operating officer of the LV Stadium Co., gives the Review-Journal a tour of the Raiders headquarters under construction in Henderson. (Rachel Aston/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
MGM Resorts views Las Vegas stadium as opportunity
MGM Resorts International intends to offer tailgating experiences at its resorts before and after events at Raiders stadium. (Michael Quine/Las Vegas Review-Journal)
2019 NFL betting breakdown: Week 2

Eric Parkila breaks down Week 2 of the NFL season.

Las Vegas Review-Journal NFL Challenge — Week 2

Hank Goldberg and Mark Franco each went 5-0 ATS in Week 1, Micah Roberts and Joe D’Amico finished 4-1, and Brent Musburger led a pack of four contestants at 3-2.

Chiefs could exploit injured Raiders secondary

Kansas City scored 40 points in a victory at Jacksonville in Week 1, and the Raiders have serious injury concerns in their defensive backfield.