Tom Brady entered Sunday as the odds-on favorite to win his fourth NFL MVP award.
But that changed after Brady was shut out for the third time in his career in Tampa Bay’s 9-0 loss to New Orleans.
Brady remains the +135 favorite at BetMGM after entering Sunday at -175. But reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers has closed the gap and essentially made it a two-man race.
After leading the top-seeded Packers (11-3) to a 31-30 win over the Ravens, Rodgers — who has thrown 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last four games — moved from +550 to the +165 second choice at BetMGM. He’s +180 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is the 11-1 third pick and Colts running back Jonathan Taylor the 12-1 fourth choice.
Brady is the biggest liability at MGM.
“We have a big liability on Tom Brady and a big liability on Patrick Mahomes,” MGM Resorts director of trading Jeff Stoneback said. “So if Aaron Rodgers wins that, that’s fine with us.”
Brady leads the league in passing yards (4,348) and TD passes (36). Rodgers is 10th in passing yards (3,487) and tied with Mahomes for fifth in TD passes (30).
“It’s definitely down to Brady and Rodgers, two guys who have been phenomenal for most of the year,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “Jonathan Taylor is a longer shot. He’s having a great year but his team is nowhere near the level of the Buccaneers and Packers.
“In my eyes, there’s a big gap between Brady and Rodgers, and Mahomes and Taylor.”
Quarterbacks have claimed 13 of the last 14 NFL MVP awards and 17 of the last 20. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards (1,518) and rushing TDs (17).
“I could see Taylor being a serious darkhorse right now,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “Taylor has literally taken the Colts and put them on his back and he has an outside shot at 2,000 rushing yards this season.”
Packers supplant Bucs
In Super Bowl odds, Green Bay has supplanted Tampa Bay as the second choice to win the Super Bowl behind Kansas City, the consensus favorite at Las Vegas sportsbooks.
The Packers are the 5-1 second pick at Caesars Sportsbook and 4-1 co-favorites with the Chiefs at Circa Sports.
“For me, one of the teams with the biggest home-field advantage in all of sports, especially pro football, is Green Bay playing in Lambeau Field,” Esposito said. “If you’re looking at the AFC, the toughest place to play is probably in Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. So right now the two teams on top in both conferences can make a serious case at having the largest home-field advantage in either conference.”
In Super Bowl LIII in 2019, the Westgate SuperBook was on the hook for almost seven figures on a no touchdown scored prop before the Patriots scored a TD with seven minutes left en route to a 13-3 win over the Rams.
On Sunday, the odds were 200-1 at the Westgate on no TDs to be scored in the Saints’ 9-0 win over the Buccaneers. But the book cashed only three tickets on the prop: two $5 bets to make $1,000 each and a $2 ticket that paid $400.
“If it would’ve been the Super Bowl,” Kornegay said. “It would’ve been a disaster.”
Odds at BetMGM
Up to 40-1
Tom Brady; +135
Aaron Rodgers; +165
Patrick Mahomes; 11-1
Jonathan Taylor; 12-1
Matthew Stafford; 14-1
Josh Allen; 16-1
Justin Herbert; 25-1
Kyler Murray; 30-1
Dak Prescott; 40-1