Back to the futures: Patriots, Colts NFL’s biggest surprises at books

The Patriots are on pace to finish with their best record since quarterback Tom Brady left the franchise following the 2019 season after leading New England to six Super Bowl wins.

Just past the midway point of the NFL season, the Patriots have been one of the league’s biggest surprises behind first-year coach Mike Vrabel and second-year quarterback Drake Maye.

“I feel like I’ve been rooting against the Patriots every week for almost my entire career,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “And look how quickly they found a head coach and quarterback. Seems like they’ll be very good again for a long time.”

Vrabel is the +125 favorite at Boyd Gaming over Colts coach and former UNLV quarterback Shane Steichen (+140) to win the NFL Coach of the Year award. Maye is the 3-1 co-favorite at Boyd with Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford to win the NFL MVP award.

New England, coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons, is tied for the NFL’s best record (8-2, 7-3 against the spread) after upsetting the Buccaneers 28-23 on Sunday as a 2½-point road underdog for its seventh straight win. The Patriots are -210 favorites to win the AFC East and +225 favorites to claim the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed.

“We thought they’d definitely be improved, like .500. Obviously, we didn’t think they’d be tied for the No. 1 seed,” SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons said. “They’re definitely much better than expectations.

“The one thing the Patriots have is an easy schedule, and they’re certainly taking advantage of it. They’re in a great spot to win the division.”

New England, which holds the tiebreaker with the Bills, is an 11½-point home favorite over the lowly Jets on “Thursday Night Football” and plays New York again in Week 17.

Super Bowl shuffle

The Patriots have had their Super Bowl odds slashed at the Westgate from 80-1 in the preseason to 18-1.

Salmons considers New England and Indianapolis, which has seen its Super Bowl odds drop from 100-1 to 10-1, the NFL’s two biggest surprises, though they haven’t attracted much money to win the Super Bowl.

“They won’t stop betting the Rams to win the Super Bowl. They won’t stop betting the Seahawks, the Lions. They’ve been betting the Bills nonstop,” he said. “But the Patriots and Colts, they have no interest in.

“Even if the Patriots are the 1 seed, they’re going to end up playing the Ravens or Chiefs in the first round, and obviously they’d be an underdog in that game. That rarely happens, but in this case it would be warranted.”

The Colts are tied for the league’s best record (8-2) behind rejuvenated quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor, who rushed for 244 yards and three touchdowns in Sunday’s 31-25 overtime win over the Falcons.

Taylor, who already has rushed for 15 touchdowns, has moved into a tie for the 5-1 third choice at Boyd to win MVP with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

“I’ll say this about the MVP. If Jonathan Taylor doesn’t win this year, I don’t think a running back can win again,” Salmons said. “He single-handedly won them the game (Sunday). It feels like he scores three touchdowns every game.”

The Broncos, whose Super Bowl odds have dropped from 30-1 to 14-1, also are 8-2 and riding a seven-game win streak. But Salmons said they’re not as good as their record suggests.

“Denver’s had a good year, but you watch these Denver games and you feel dirty after watching them,” he said. “They keep winning like Kansas City did last year, and you know that it’s fake. You know that’s not going to continue. The Seahawks are another team. I don’t know if they’re as good as their record is. It feels like they’ve beaten a lot of crappy teams as well.”

‘Like they’re stealing’

Seattle (7-2, 7-2 ATS) has seen its Super Bowl odds drop from 80-1 in the preseason to 8-1. But the Rams (7-2, 7-2 ATS) have been the most popular pick at the SuperBook, where Salmons made them the new 5-1 favorites to win the Super Bowl after they whipped the 49ers 42-26.

“I can’t stop getting bets on the Rams,” Salmons said. “Last week, at 7-1, I just got bombarded all week, like they’re stealing.”

Los Angeles was 25-1 in the preseason, when Stafford reportedly had serious back issues.

“He was a real doubt to start the year, let alone play in every game and not get hurt. That’s the biggest surprise with the Rams,” Salmons said. “We had respected professionals that were betting the Rams to miss the playoffs and under wins.

“The Rams have been really good. These teams are all so close, especially in the NFC. You look at the top NFC teams — the Seahawks, Rams, Eagles, Lions, Packers — they’re all so close in power rating number. It just feels pretty wide open.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.