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Best bets for Super Bowl 58; line moves toward Chiefs

Updated February 11, 2024 - 9:00 am

Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog and has led the Chiefs to three straight outright wins in that role in the playoffs, including last year’s 38-35 victory over the Eagles in the Super Bowl.

The betting public is banking on Mahomes to extend that trend in the first Super Bowl in Las Vegas on Sunday as a 2-point underdog to the 49ers.

But Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay, who has picked NFL winners at a 70 percent clip this season (62-26-6 ATS, including 3-1 in playoffs) in the Review-Journal, is siding with San Francisco.

“It’s always tough to go against Mahomes and (Chiefs coach Andy) Reid in these situations,” he said. “But I don’t think (Niners coach Kyle) Shanahan is going to get outcoached. San Francisco has a few more weapons that they can utilize, namely Deebo Samuel. I think he’s going to play a big part in this game.

“I’m picking the Niners to win, but I can’t say I’ve got full confidence in it. It’s going to be a tight game with a couple big plays deciding the winner.”

Less than 24 hours before kickoff at Allegiant Stadium, the 49ers were consensus 2-point favorites. But the line dipped to 1½ on Saturday at Circa Sports, Caesars Sportsbook and Boyd Gaming.

The vast majority of six-figure or higher bets confirmed by sportsbooks have been on the Niners, but the betting public is all over the Chiefs.

“The ticket count is a Kansas City runaway at this point,” Kornegay said. “I think that we are going to need San Francisco when it’s all said and done.”

The consensus total is 47½, though 90 percent of the money at the SuperBook is on the over.

“I can see it moving up to 48,” Kornegay said “You can start to see that the general public has arrived in town, as the majority of the bets are on the over. I don’t see that changing.”

Best prop bets

Mahomes (-4½) more completions than Brock Purdy

Pro sports bettor Bill Krackomberger bet on this prop, which is now -5½ (-110).

“I think San Francisco may be sticking to a ground game more than people think,” said Krackomberger (@BillKrackman).

Travis Kelce under 73½ receiving yards

“I will be waiting till closer to kickoff for all the Swifties to bet this, (so) I may even get a better number,” Krackomberger said.

Christian McCaffrey over 89½ rushing yards, over 34½ receiving yards

VSiN host Matt Youmans likes McCaffrey’s chances to go over his rushing and receiving totals.

“I’ll bet both props, and if he falls short in one category, no harm is done,” said Youmans (@mattyoumans247). “McCaffrey is the horse the 49ers need to ride to the winner’s circle, and you can bet coach Kyle Shanahan knows it. The Chiefs’ run defense is vulnerable — the Bills, who rushed for 182 yards against Kansas City, wisely took that path before the Ravens lost their way in the AFC title game.

“In the playoffs, McCaffrey had 20 carries for 90 yards and four receptions for 42 yards versus Detroit after totaling 17 carries for 98 yards and seven receptions for 30 yards versus Green Bay.”

Chiefs to make longest field goal

Youmans and WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels like this prop, which is -130 at the South Point.

“Harrison Butker is about as good as it gets,” Youmans said. “Butler is 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts this season, converting all 12 tries from 40 yards or more, including five of 50 yards or more.”

Michaels noted that Butker is a veteran and 49ers kicker Jake Moody is a rookie.

“Butker has a career long 62-yarder and also is 28 of 31 in the playoffs since 2018,” said Michaels (@CalSportsLV).

Moody is 1-for-3 on kicks of 40 to 49 yards in the playoffs, though he did make a 52-yarder against Green Bay.

Purdy to throw an interception

Pro sports bettor Cris Zeniuk wagered on Purdy to throw a pick at -110 (now -135 at South Point).

“Facing a much better defense than he has been facing,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “And he’s been having some fortunate luck with too many of his throws recently.”

Noah Gray over 1½ receptions

Zeniuk also bet on Gray, who eclipsed that total at Baltimore and Buffalo, at even money at the SuperBook.

“His role has grown recently, and this feels safe,” Zeniuk said.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.

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