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Donald Trump now betting favorite to win 2024 presidential election

Updated October 14, 2021 - 11:07 am

For the first time since Donald Trump left office, he has surpassed Joe Biden as the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.

Trump emerged as the favorite Monday at multiple offshore sportsbooks to return to the White House in 2024. On Wednesday, he became the top choice over President Biden at Smarkets, a London-based betting exchange. Trump also is now the favorite at Ladbrokes sportsbook in London.

According to Smarkets, the former president has a 20 percent chance, which equates to odds of 4-1, of winning the 2024 election after having fallen as low as 3 percent, or 32-1, in the wake of the U.S. Capitol attack in January.

Biden’s odds dropped to 19 percent (+426), and Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds dropped to 13 percent (+669).

“It’s a pretty staggering development to find a defeated one-term president taking over as favorite from the incumbent who beat him, but we know by now that Donald Trump is no ordinary politician,” Smarkets head of political markets Matthew Shaddick said. “It’s early days, but the latest market signals suggest there is every chance we could be heading for a Biden vs. Trump rematch in 2024 with Trump currently having a very slight edge, according to the betting.”

At Ladbrokes, Trump is a +350 favorite over Biden (4-1) and Harris (5-1).

All betting odds can be converted into an implied chance, or percentage, of something happening, and that is how Smarkets presents its odds.

Trump is the heavy favorite at Smarkets to be the 2024 Republican nominee with a 45 percent chance (+122).

“Trump’s odds have been improving all year and in particular since Biden’s poll ratings began declining this summer,” Shaddick said. “There is absolutely no sign of Republican voters deserting him, and he leads every primary poll by a distance.

“Many forecasters had predicted that health or legal issues might stop Trump from re-election, but the latest Smarkets prices imply that there is a two-in-three chance he’ll run for the White House again in three years’ time.”

Biden remains the +333 favorite over Trump (4-1) and Harris (5-1) at London’s Betfair sportsbook.

Wagering on the election isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.

At offshore books that operate illegally in the U.S., Trump is the +275 favorite over Biden (+325) and Harris (5-1) at BetOnline and the 3-1 favorite over Biden (+325) and Harris (5-1) at SportsBetting.ag.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.

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