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ELECTION BETTING BLOG: Joe Biden elected president over Donald Trump

Updated November 7, 2020 - 11:54 am

After a long campaign, America voted for its next president Tuesday.

Will President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, win re-election? Or will former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, become president-elect?

One way to keep up with the race as votes are counted is by following the election betting happening around the world (though not in the U.S., where it is illegal).

We’re following the race state by state, plus updating movement on the overall betting line, which can often be an early indicator of where the election is headed.

UPDATES

9:04 a.m. Saturday: Joe Biden defeats President Donald Trump to become the 46th president of the United States, according to The Associated Press, CNN and Fox News.

Biden crossed the needed 270 Electoral College votes with a win in Pennsylvania (20 votes). Biden was -179 on Monday at Betfair Exchange to win Pennsylvania. The former vice president leads the president 273-213 in electoral votes from the states that have been called by CNN.

Biden is still listed as a -3,333 favorite over Trump (+2,800) at Betfair. The United Kingdom-based betting platform has taken more than $711 million in wagers on the election. That number shattered the $258 million bet on the 2016 election between Trump and Hillary Clinton as the biggest betting event ever on the United Kingdom-based betting platform.

Biden remains a heavy favorite on Betfair to win Nevada (-4,999) Georgia (-1,111) and Arizona (-625).

9:48 a.m. Friday: Biden’s odds have skyrocketed to -3,333 to win the election over Trump (+2,700) at Betfair Exchange. Biden was -1,000 (Trump +950) late Thursday, when the president was still leading in Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Biden’s odds soared as he overtook the president in Georgia and Pennsylvania and increased his lead in Nevada, which updated vote totals Friday morning.

The former vice president is now -4,999 to win Nevada, -3,333 to win Pennsylvania and -909 to win Georgia.

Trump has trimmed Biden’s lead in votes in Arizona, but Biden has shot up to -1,428 to win the state after he was -286 on Thursday night.

10:18 p.m.: Biden’s odds have dipped slightly to -1,000 to win the election over Trump (+950) at Betfair Exchange. Biden was -1,428 (Trump +1,300) earlier in the day.

The ballot-counting trends seem to favor Biden, with the former vice president continuing to reduce Trump’s leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania. However, Trump is cutting into Biden’s lead in Arizona.

Biden is -286 to win Arizona (Trump +205), -1,111 to win Georgia (Trump +700), -2,000 to win Nevada (Trump +780) and -1,429 to win Pennsylvania (Trump (+1,150).

5:04 p.m.: Biden is now a -1,428 favorite over Trump (+1,300) at Betfair Exchange to win the presidency, up from -1,111 earlier today. He’s -2,499 to win Nevada and also remains the favorite to win Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.

CNN shows Trump with a 64,000-vote lead in Pennsylvania, but Biden has soared to a -1,999 favorite to win the state after being -833 on Thursday morning.

Biden also is a -666 favorite to win Georgia, where he now trails Trump by fewer than 3,500 votes, after he was -285 on Thursday morning.

The former vice president is -277 to win Arizona after being -333 earlier Thursday.

11:21 a.m.: Biden’s odds to win Nevada improved almost tenfold at Betfair after an update of votes in the state showed the former vice president widening his lead over Trump from less than 8,000 votes to more than 11,000.

Biden is a -3,333 favorite over Trump (+2,000) to win Nevada after he was -370 earlier Thursday morning. He also shot up from -769 to -1,111 to win the presidency over Trump (+880) and is still favored to win the other remaining key states of Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.

In the last three hours, Biden has improved from -149 to -285 to win Georgia, from -294 to -333 to win Arizona and from -526 to -833 to win Pennsylvania on the United Kingdom-based betting platform, which has taken $644.5 million wagers on the election and counting.

7:53 a.m. Thursday: Biden is still favored over Trump to win the presidency and sweep the remaining key states of Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. But the former vice president’s odds have dropped across the board overnight on Betfair Exchange.

Since our post more than 12 hours ago, Biden has dropped from a -999 favorite to -769 over Trump (+720) to win the election. In state election betting, Biden had plummeted from -833 to -370 to win Nevada, from -384 to -294 to win Arizona, from -192 to -149 to win Georgia and from -666 to -526 to win Pennsylvania.

7:34 p.m.: With mail-in ballots still being counted in six states that haven’t been called, including Nevada, it seems clear that a winner won’t be announced Wednesday.

Biden is still a heavy favorite over Trump to win the presidency. The former vice president is a -999 favorite over Trump on Betfair, which has taken more than $620 million in wagers on the election.

The Democratic candidate also is favored to win the remaining key states of Nevada (-909), Pennsylvania (-666), Arizona (-384) and Georgia (-192).

Biden leads the president 253-213 in electoral votes from the states that have been called by CNN.

3:40 p.m.: Biden shot up to a -1,250 favorite over Trump (+722) to win the presidency at Pinnacle and to 1,300 at MyBookie.

“It looks like Arizona and Georgia are starting to report again,” MyBookie oddsmaker David Strauss said of the move. “It’d be shocking if he doesn’t hold on at this point.

“Trump pretty much has to win Nevada. If he doesn’t, it’s over.”

Biden is -1,000 at Betfair Exchange (Trump +1000), which has taken $607.8 million in wagers on the election.

1:30 p.m.: Biden wins Michigan (16 votes), CNN projects. Biden was -345 on Monday at Betfair to win Michigan. The former vice president leads the president 253-213 in electoral votes from the states that have been called by CNN. There are still six states that haven’t been called.

Biden soared to a -630 favorite over Trump (+442) to win the presidency at offshore sportsbook Pinnacle.

12:30 p.m.: Biden is still favored to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona. But Trump has gained ground in each state in the betting market since 8 a.m. Wednesday.

Biden has dropped from -210 to win Pennsylvania at Pinnacle to -153 over Trump (+115) and from -200 to -175 at Betfair.

— In Michigan, Biden is down to -1,111 after being -1,667 at Betfair.

— In Nevada, Biden is down to -500 from -769.

— In Arizona, he’s down to -556 from -1,667.

Biden continues to be a prohibitive favorite to win the presidency over Trump. He dropped from -500 to -360 at Pinnacle on Wednesday morning before bouncing back to -521 over Trump (+379) at the offshore sportsbook.

The former vice president also is a -435 favorite over the president (+435) at Betfair, which has taken $596.7 million in wagers on the election.

12:15 p.m.: Biden wins Wisconsin (10 votes), CNN projects. Biden was -333 on Monday night at Betfair to win Wisconsin. Biden leads 237-213 in electoral votes from the states that have been called by CNN. There are still seven states that haven’t been called.

8:02 a.m.: Joe Biden is now a -450 favorite over Donald Trump (+354) at Pinnacle to win the presidency after a stunning shift in the betting markets over the last eight hours.

Trump was a -250 favorite at the offshore book shortly before midnight and favored to win Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Biden overtook Trump as a slight favorite at 2:48 a.m. after taking the lead in Wisconsin and climbed to -350 at 4:47 a.m.

Biden is now -435 to win the election on Betfair Exchange, which has taken $581.6 million in wagers on the election. The former Vice President is heavily favored to win Michigan (-1,667), Arizona (-1,667), Wisconsin (-1,429) and Nevada (-769) on the United Kingdom-based betting platform.

Biden also is -200 to win Pennsylvania at Betfair and -210 at Pinnacle, which lists Trump as a +155 underdog to win the state.

4:47 a.m.: Biden is now as big a favorite as he has been all night to win the presidency.

With Michigan almost a dead heat and Wisconsin appearing destined to turn blue, Biden is now a -350 choice at BetOnline.

A bet on President Trump will return a plus-275 price.

Should Biden win Michigan and the numbers in Wisconsin don’t change, he would just need to hold on to leads in Arizona and Nevada to clinch the 270 electoral college votes necessary to unseat the incumbent.

2:48 a.m. Wednesday: Biden is once again the favorite to win the presidency in the offshore market.

The democratic candidate is a minus-135 choice at BetOnline, with similar prices showing at other shops.

Biden entered the night as a favorite only to have Donald Trump (plus-105) surge ahead in the market shortly before 6:30 p.m.

Trump reached as high as minus-700 at one point in the evening.

Biden didn’t retake the favorite role until a wave of mail-in votes from Milwaukee gave him a lead in Wisconsin early Wednesday morning.

This one is far from over.

11:51 p.m.: It seems clear we will not have a winner tonight.

Trump is a -200 favorite to win the election at Betfair (Biden +200). Trump is -250 at Pinnacle (Biden +208).

Biden leads 220-213 in electoral votes from the states that have been called by CNN, but several states have ballots out.

We’ll see if we’re any closer to a winner later today. Thanks for reading.

11 p.m.: Favored to win the remaining key states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia, Trump shot back up to -220 to win re-election at offshore book Pinnacle, where Biden is +178.

Trump is a heavy -380 favorite to win Pennsylvania over Biden (+260), -223 to win Michigan over Biden (+150) and -177 to win Wisconsin over Biden (+121).

Trump is -240 to win Georgia over Biden (+175).

10:39 p.m.: Trump wins Montana (3 votes), CNN projects. Trump was -909 to win Montana.

Biden now leads 220-213 in electoral votes.

10:30 p.m.: Biden and Trump will split the two outstanding Nebraska votes (Trump already won the first three). Biden leads 220-210 in electoral votes.

10:20 p.m.: Trump wins Texas (38 votes), CNN projects. He was -263 to win Texas.

Biden now leads 219-209 in electoral votes.

10:19 p.m.: Biden said “We’re going to win Pennsylvania” during a speech to supporters in Delaware on Tuesday night.

But the betting odds suggest otherwise. More than an hour after Biden was a -125 favorite over Trump to win the key battleground state, Trump has surged to a -200 favorite over Biden (+162) at Betfair Exchange to win Pennsylvania.

Biden remained -154 over Trump (+112) to win Michigan and dipped from -175 to -139 over Trump (+112) to win Wisconsin.

Biden also is -714 over Trump (+330) to win Arizona and -1,000 over Trump (+310) to win Nevada.

At Pinnacle, Trump is -281 to win Pennsylvania over Biden (+201). Trump also is -155 to win Michigan over Biden (+107) at the offshore book, -131 to win Wisconsin over Biden (-109) and -680 to win Georgia over Biden (+405).

Successful sports bettor David Halpern said Betfair, a peer-to-peer betting service, moves the price based on bets, while offshore books like Pinnacle move the number based on sophisticated algorithms.

More than a half billion dollars has been bet on the U.S. election on United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange ($517.4 million), making it the biggest single betting event in the company’s history.

10:18 p.m.: CNN finally calls Rhode Island (4 votes) for Biden. Biden was -5,000 to win Rhode Island.

Biden now leads 219-171 in electoral votes.

9:57 p.m.: Trump is -125 to win the election at Betfair (Biden +124). Trump is -142 (Biden +117) at Pinnacle.

9:56 p.m.: Trump wins Iowa (6 votes), CNN projects. He was -256 to win Iowa.

Biden now leads 215-171 in electoral votes.

9:42 p.m.: Trump wins Florida (29 votes), CNN projects. Trump was -123 to win Florida.

Biden now leads 215-165 in electoral votes.

9:39 p.m.: Biden wins Minnesota (10 votes), CNN projects. Biden was -370 to win Minnesota.

Biden now leads 215-136 in electoral votes.

9:23 p.m.: Trump wins Ohio (18 votes) and Idaho (4), CNN projects. Trump was -256 to win Ohio and -10,000 to win Idaho.

Biden now leads 205-136 in electoral votes.

9 p.m.: Biden continues to gain ground on Trump in betting markets overseas and offshore. Biden is +114 at United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange, where Trump is -114.

Trump is down to a -140 favorite over Biden (+115) at offshore sportsbook Pinnacle after climbing as high as -375 on Tuesday night.

Biden trails Trump in votes in key states Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. But Biden is the betting favorite to win each state at Betfair.

The former vice president is -125 over Trump (+104) to win Pennsylvania, -154 over Trump (+112) to win Michigan and -175 over Trump (+110) in Wisconsin.

Fox News called Arizona for Biden but CNN has not called a winner in the state. Biden is -625 over Trump (+420) on Betfair to win Arizona.

8:54 p.m.: Biden wins Virginia (13 votes), CNN projects. Biden was -1,667 to win Virginia.

Biden now leads 205-114 in electoral votes.

8:40 p.m.: Biden has bounced back in betting odds at United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange, which has taken $506 million in wagers on the next U.S. president.

Trump is -135 and Biden +135.

Offshore sportsbook Pinnacle also lowered Trump from -285 to -180 over Biden (+132).

Successful sports bettor David Halpern said Betfair, a peer-to-peer betting service, moves the price based on bets, while offshore books like Pinnacle move the number based on sophisticated algorithms.

8:20 p.m.: Trump wins Mississippi (6 votes), CNN projects. Trump was -2,000 to win Mississippi.

Biden now leads 192-114 in electoral votes.

8:03 p.m.: Biden wins California (55 votes), Washington (12) and Oregon (7), and Trump wins Wyoming (3), CNN projects. Biden was -5,000 to win California, -5,000 to win Washington and -2,500 to win Oregon, and Trump was -10,000 to win Wyoming.

Biden now leads 192-108 in electoral votes.

8 p.m.: Trump was as high as -700 to win re-election at offshore sportsbook MyBookie before his odds dropped to -300 over Biden (+200).

Trump dropped from -375 to -253 over Biden (+202) at Pinnacle.

“Biden just won Illinois, which is 20 electoral college votes, so that brought it back a little,” MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss said. “Once Georgia, Virginia and North Carolina goes in, we’ll probably have a clearer picture. It looks like they’re all going to Trump right now.”

Trump is -250 on Betfair (Biden +240).

7:51 p.m.: Biden wins Illinois (20 votes), and Trump wins Missouri (10), CNN projects. Biden was -5,000 to win Illinois, and Trump was -1,429 to win Missouri.

Biden now leads 118-105 in electoral votes.

7:47 p.m.: The market has finally shown some resistance to the run on Trump. His price on Betfair has dropped to -217 (Biden +215).

7:43 p.m.: Trump wins Louisiana (8 votes), Kansas (6), Utah (6) and three of the five votes in Nebraska (two other awarded proportionally), and Biden wins New Hampshire (4), CNN projects.

Trump was -5,000 in Louisiana, -2,500 in Kansas and -3,333 in Utah, and Biden was -476 in New Hampshire.

Biden leads 98-95 in electoral votes.

7:32 p.m.: Biden wins New Mexico (5 votes), CNN projects. He was -909 to win New Mexico.

Biden leads 94-72 overall in electoral votes.

7:23 p.m.: Trump is up to a -375 favorite at Pinnacle (Biden +287).

7:15 p.m.: CNN and Fox News still report that Florida is too early to call. But offshore sportsbooks closed betting on the battleground state more than 90 minutes ago, when Trump was a -4,000 favorite.

In fact, Pinnacle made Trump a -588 favorite to win Florida at 4:44 p.m. So how did the offshore books have Trump as a heavy favorite to win the state so much earlier than the news networks?

“They’re just reporting percentages,” MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss said. “They’re going to count the cities first, which generally go Democrat. But if it’s close to a 50-50 split in cities, we know that townships and suburbia go to Trump.

“Using Florida as an example, Trump got more of the vote in Miami-Dade (County) than he got in 2016 and that’s a heavy Latino area. So If Trump is winning Miami-Dade, chances are pretty good he’s going to win a whole lot in Florida.”

6:52 p.m.: Trump wins South Carolina (9 votes) and Alabama (9), CNN projects. He was -1,429 to win South Carolina and -5,000 to win Alabama.

Biden leads 89-72 overall in electoral votes.

6:37 p.m.: Trump soared to -300 favorite at MyBookie over Biden (+215).

“It looks like he’s taking Pennsylvania. He’s -160,” MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss said. “And he’s taking Arizona and Texas.

“Trump landslide coming. Proving once again, don’t believe the polls.”

Trump also overtook Biden as the favorite to win re-election for first time Tuesday at offshore sportsbook Pinnacle, which made the president -225 over Biden (+181).

6:32 p.m.: Biden wins Colorado (9 votes), and Trump wins North Dakota (3), CNN projects. Biden was -1,667 to win Colorado, and Trump was -5,000 to win North Dakota.

Biden now leads 89-54 in electoral votes.

6:26 p.m.: Trump is now favored to win the election at -128 (Biden +126). It’s getting interesting.

6:18 p.m.: CNN is showing Biden with leads of more than 125,000 votes each in North Carolina and Ohio. But Trump is a heavy favorite on Betfair Exchange to win both states.

Trump is -455 to win North Carolina over Biden (+280), who leads by 126,000 votes with 78 percent in.

Trump is -250 to win Ohio over Biden (+190), who leads by 190,000 votes with 57 percent in.

6:17 p.m.: Biden wins Connecticut (7 votes), and Trump wins South Dakota (3), CNN projects. Biden was -3,333 to win Connecticut, and Trump was -10,000 to win Arkansas.

Biden now leads 80-51 in electoral votes.

6:08 p.m.: Biden wins New Jersey (14 votes), and Trump wins Arkansas (6), CNN projects. Biden was -3,333 to win New Jersey, and Trump was -10,000 to win Arkansas.

6:02 p.m.: Biden wins New York and its 29 votes. He was -5,000 to win New York.

5:47 p.m.: Offshore book MyBookie head oddsmaker David Strauss said it’s looking like 2016 all over again as he expects Trump to soon become the favorite to earn re-election after being a sizable underdog to Biden for months.

“Trump’s running away with a lot of states that were sort of a tossup going into it. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina. And his Pennsylvania odds are dropping rapidly,” he said. “An hour ago, Trump was +200 in Pennsylvania. Now he’s +110. If he gets Pennsylvania, it’s over.

“The way it’s going right now, Trump’s going to become the favorite between (6 and 7 p.m. PT). That’s what happened in 2016 and it looks like it’s going to happen again.”

A Trump upset would mean a seven-figure loss for MyBookie, which has taken seven figures of action on the election, surpassing the betting handle on February’s Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl.

5:36 p.m.: Trump wins West Virginia and its five votes, CNN projects. Trump was -5,000 to win West Virginia. Trump leads 42-30 overall in electoral votes right now.

5:22 p.m.: Trump continues to close the gap on Biden in the odds to win the election. Biden is now -135 and Trump +111 at offshore book Pinnacle and the odds have moved to -125/+125 at United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange.

5:21 p.m.: Trump wins Tennessee and its 11 votes. He was -5,000 to win Tennessee.

5:09 p.m.: Trump wins Kentucky and its eight votes, CNN projects. Trump was -10,000 to win Kentucky.

5:04 p.m.: CNN shows Biden leads Trump by 10,000 votes in Florida but the president is up to an overwhelming -1,000 favorite over Biden (+522) at Pinnacle to win the state’s 29 electoral votes.

5:03 p.m.: Biden wins Massachusetts (11 electoral votes), Maryland (10), Delaware (3) and Washington, D.C. (3), CNN projects, while Trump wins Oklahoma (7).

Biden leads overall 30-18 in electoral votes.

None of those is a surprise. Biden was -10,000 to win Massachusetts, -5,000 in Maryland and -5,000 in Delaware. Trump was -10,000 in Oklahoma.

4:52 p.m.: Biden wins Vermont and its three electoral votes, CNN projects. Biden was -5,000 to win the state.

4:49 p.m.: As Trump emerged as a heavy favorite to win Florida at offshore book Pinnacle, Biden’s odds to win the presidency dropped dramatically from -215 to -142. Trump is now +121 at Pinnacle to win re-election.

4:44 p.m.: CNN shows Joe Biden has a slight lead over Donald Trump in the key battleground state of Florida (50 percent to 49.1 percent) with 67 percent of the vote in. But Trump is a -588 favorite over Biden (+365) to win the state at offshore sportsbook Pinnacle after he was -123 favorite to win the state Monday at Betfair.

4:15 p.m.: Trump takes the first state. CNN projects he will win Indiana and its 11 electoral votes. Trump was -2,000 to win the state on Betfair.

First post: Biden is a -200 favorite on the United Kingdom-based Betfair Exchange (Trump +200). Favorites are expressed with a minus sign and underdogs with a plus sign. In this case, a bettor would have to bet $200 to win $100 on Biden or bet $100 to win $200 on Trump.

Here are some key state races, with the favorite at Betfair. The odds are as of Monday night to give a picture of where the race stood before Tuesday:

— Arizona: Biden -120

— Florida: Trump -123

— Georgia: Trump -141

— Iowa: Trump -256

— Michigan: Biden -345

— Minnesota: Biden -370

— Nevada: Biden -400

— New Hampshire: Biden -476

— North Carolina: Biden -112

— Ohio: Trump -256

— Pennsylvania: Biden -179

— Texas: Trump -263

— Wisconsin: Biden -333

Contact Jim Barnes at jbarnes@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0277. Follow @JimBarnesLV on Twitter. Contact Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter. Review-Journal staff writer Adam Hill contributed to this report.

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