Florida hasn’t seen a total as high as the 61½ points for Saturday’s game at Missouri since 2010. In fact, during the seven-year stretch since the Gators last saw a total in the 60s, the highest tally they have seen is 56½ in 2014.
Let’s capitalize on this terrible number with a strong play on the under.
Florida’s past three games have produced combined scores of 33, 36 and 49 points, with the Gators managing 16, 17 and seven points. They’ve dealt with abysmal quarterback play since Tim Tebow took his last snap at the Sugar Bowl in January 2010.
Florida has had only five totals in the 50s over the past two seasons, with the highest closing at 52½ points. The under has cashed at a 4-1 clip in those games.
The Gators are ranked No. 113 in the nation out of 130 FBS schools in total offense and scoring offense and are No. 111 in passing yards.
Making matters worse for this pedestrian unit is the season-ending injury suffered last week by star running back Malik Davis. Also, Florida’s best wide receiver, Tyrie Cleveland, hasn’t been the same since Sept. 30, when he suffered a high ankle sprain in a 38-24 win over Vanderbilt.
Missouri quarterback Drew Lock has thrown 18 TD passes with two interceptions in his past four games. But he isn’t facing Idaho or Connecticut’s defense.
How many times have the Gators had at least 62 combined points in their past 43 games? Five.
Five more plays (home team in CAPS):
Syracuse (+7) over FLORIDA STATE: Doak Campbell Stadium will have one of its smallest crowds in the past three decades when the Orange take the field against the Seminoles, the nation’s only winless team ATS at 0-5-2. Dino Babers’ team is 3-0 ATS on the road and had a good shot at winning each of those games outright at Louisiana State, North Carolina State and Miami. Syracuse has had two weeks to prepare. The Seminoles didn’t hit rock bottom Oct. 27 in their 35-3 loss at Boston College. That comes Saturday when the Orange win outright as a plus-220 money-line underdog.
South Carolina (+24) over GEORGIA: This is a flat scenario for the Bulldogs, who were gunning for Florida and have Auburn on deck. South Carolina is on a 4-0-1 ATS run as an underdog with four outright wins. Georgia will stay unbeaten, but the Gamecocks will comfortably cover this inflated spread.
Southern Mississippi (+7) over TENNESSEE: The Golden Eagles are 6-2 ATS, and the Volunteers have limped to a 2-6 spread ledger. Tennessee is 0-4 ATS as a favorite.
CALIFORNIA (-7) over Oregon State: The Golden Bears are on a 4-1 ATS surge at home. The Beavers have been a disaster on the road, losing 38-10 at Southern California, 52-23 at Washington State and 58-27 at Colorado State.
Western Kentucky (+11) over Vanderbilt: The Commodores are 3-7 ATS in 10 games as a home favorite under coach Derek Mason. The Hilltoppers are on a 14-7-1 ATS run as a road underdog and on an 8-4-1 ATS uptick as a double-digit underdog. The past two meetings were decided by a total of three points.
Last week: 1-4 against the spread
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @vegasbedwards on Twitter.