Florida State built a 31-13 first-half lead in its opener against Boise State, only to fade late when the Broncos generated more than 40 minutes of possession.
The Seminoles are 12-14 straight up since the start of the 2017 season.
Lost in the doom and gloom: Against a decent defense, Cam Akers rushed for 116 yards on 7.7 yards per carry and James Blackman threw for 327 yards on 9.9 yards per attempt.
Florida State lost to a Group of Five team, 36-31. But Boise State, a contender for a New Year’s Six bowl slot, ran 113 plays to 68 for Florida State, or else the Seminoles would have won.
I have Boise State at No. 31 in my power rankings. This week’s Florida State opponent, Louisiana-Monroe, is No. 112.
The Warhawks allowed 407 yards of total offense to Grambling State last week, and defensive end Kerry Starks (11 tackles for loss in 2018) was suspended for the Florida State game.
Hold your nose and take Florida State minus 22.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
■ Rutgers (+20) over IOWA: Running backs Raheem Blackshear and Isaih Pacheco were impressive last season for Rutgers, especially considering the lack of diversion from quarterback Artur Sitkowski (4 TDs, 18 INTs, 49.1 percent completion rate). Even though he threw three interceptions against Massachusetts last week, former Texas Tech starter McLane Carter is a major upgrade at quarterback. Rutgers has covered six consecutive spreads thanks to a decent defense. Iowa could be looking ahead to a rivalry game with Iowa State next week. Iowa left tackle Alaric Jackson (knee) will miss the game.
■ Tulsa (-6½) over SAN JOSE STATE: Tulsa held Michigan State to 28 points despite its offense rushing for minus-73 yards and turning the ball over three times. Most disparaged the Spartans’ offense, but the Golden Hurricane made big-time defensive improvement last season. Baylor transfer QB Zach Smith performed OK against Michigan State, and his offensive line and running game should offer more help Saturday. Trust the team with the much better defense.
■ TEXAS STATE (+7) over Wyoming: Missouri outgained Wyoming 537 yards to 389 despite Cowboys runs of 61 and 75 yards on blown assignments. The Tigers also were minus-3 in turnover margin. Wyoming was fortunate to win, and the market is inflated. More than half of Texas State’s defensive starters got preseason All-Sun Belt recognition. I expect the Bobcats to be much better on offense this season with Jake Spavital as coach and Bob Stitt as offensive coordinator. QB Gresch Jensen, who came off the bench against Texas A&M, also looks like the better option.
■ Oregon State (+6½) over HAWAII:These teams had different results in their openers, but Oregon State faced my No. 23 and Hawaii faced my No. 57. The Rainbow Warriors are expected to start QB Cole McDonald again, but I think backup Chevan Cordeiro is better. Oregon State is built for this type of game, and the Beavers have added key transfers from Nebraska, Arizona and Oklahoma. Hawaii doesn’t run the ball enough to exploit the Beavers to the maximum degree. Hawaii is 3-9-1 ATS since early last season, and the market has overreacted to their Week 0 win.
■ Last Week: 2-3 ATS
■ Season: 2-3 ATS