Kentucky-Mississippi State showdown should be defensive struggle

I made the total 46½ points for Mississippi State’s home game against Kentucky, but oddsmakers have had this number in the mid-50s all week, so let’s take advantage with a wager on under 54½.

The under is 4-2 overall for the Bulldogs, 3-0 in their home games that have produced combined scores of 45, 44 and 49 points. Likewise, the under is 4-2 overall for the Wildcats, 2-0 in their road games that have netted combined scores of 36 and 41 points.

Kentucky has been without its best defensive player, junior linebacker Jordan Jones, since he sustained a shoulder injury in Week 2. His return to the starting lineup in Starkville will be a big boost for a unit that is ranked 10th in the nation in rushing defense despite being without Jones for four games.

The Wildcats are ranked 107th nationally out of 130 FBS teams in total offense and have topped 27 points only once.

Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen pulled a coup when he snatched defensive coordinator Todd Grantham from Louisville. The Bulldogs are eighth in the nation in total defense and allow only 19.7 points per game.

I’m all about the under in this Southeastern Conference showdown.

Four more plays (home team in CAPS):

Syracuse (+17½) over MIAMI: I made the Hurricanes 12½-point favorites. They were fortunate to get a comeback win over Georgia Tech last week. In terms of being a true national title contender, Miami is a complete fraud. I have Mark Richt’s team at No. 17 in my power rankings. The Hurricanes’ offense took a major hit two weeks ago when star running back Mark Walton went down with a season-ending injury. Sure, this qualifies as a letdown spot for Syracuse after its upset of Clemson, but that victory was Oct. 13 and the Orange have had an extra day of rest. They are on a 6-2 ATS run as a double-digit underdog, including 3-0 ATS this season. We have a slight advantage at quarterback and a huge edge in coaching.

GEORGIA TECH (-4) over Wake Forest: I made the Yellow Jackets 10-point favorites. With several players out with injuries, I can understand the number being less than 10 but certainly not less than a touchdown. Tech is 3-0 ATS as a home favorite, winning by 27, 18 and 26 points. Georgia Tech also is on a 23-13-2 ATS run as home chalk.

Kentucky (+13) over MISSISSIPPI STATE: I made the Bulldogs nine-point favorites. Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has thrown six interceptions in his past three games. Kentucky has covered five of its past six games as a road underdog.

Purdue (-9½) over RUTGERS: Jeff Brohm has done an amazing job with the Boilermakers, leading them to a 5-1 ATS record and 3-3 mark overall. After beating Rutgers, Purdue will have its highest win total since 2012. The Boilermakers’ wins have been by 23, 28 and 14 points. They’re 2-0 ATS on the road, losing 17-9 at Wisconsin last week as 17-point underdogs.

Last week: 4-1 against the spread

Season: 23-13-1

Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @vegasbedwards on Twitter.