January 31, 2013 - 11:57 pm
Play Q & A with handicapper Kelly Stewart, who answers selected questions from Las Vegas Review-Journal readers. Email her at Askkelly@reviewjournal.com.
Q: What’s your best bet for the Super Bowl? – Bryan, Pasadena, Calif.
A: I was hoping to get San Francisco at minus-3, but 3½ is the best line available. The Ravens are obviously a hot team after beating Denver’s Peyton Manning and New England’s Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks on the road. But Manning and Brady are stationary quarterbacks, and the 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick is a running threat. Kaepernick will make the difference.
But it’s not just Kaepernick. Running back Frank Gore gets tough yards between the tackles, Vernon Davis is a dangerous tight end, and Michael Crabtree is another weapon.
The San Francisco defense is fast and will frustrate Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco. I’m calling for the 49ers to win, 27-17.
Q: What are your favorite proposition bets this weekend? – Cindy, Las Vegas
A: There are always so many good ones, and the book of props almost looks like the Bible. I won’t be betting the length of time it takes Alicia Keys to sing the national anthem. But, believe it or not, I do like the coin flip (heads minus-102). I’m going for 5-0 on that prop.
I’m playing the alternative point spread on the 49ers at minus-7½ (plus-170), just to make the game more interesting. I also like Kaepernick at 10-1 odds to score the first touchdown. The Ravens don’t have much experience this season with stopping mobile quarterbacks, so I could see Kaepernick taking one in on his own if the opportunity is there.
Another prop I’m considering is Crabtree over 82½ receiving yards. He averages 69.1 yards per game, but he is Kaepernick’s favorite receiver, and I expect Crabtree to be targeted on several passes. I have a feeling he will put up big numbers.
Q: Who’s going to Disneyland? Or, should I say who will win Most Valuable Player? – Rob, Henderson
A: I’m going with the favorite on this one, Kaepernick at 8-5 odds. There is a lot of pressure in a big game like this, and no one can be certain how he will react to all the hype. But he led the 49ers back from a 17-0 deficit to win the NFC championship, and he shows no signs of nervousness.
It’s hard to imagine the Baltimore defense being able to contain him. If San Francisco wins, as I expect, Kaepernick most likely will win MVP. The statistics are in his favor, as 25 quarterbacks have won the award in previous Super Bowls.
Kelly Stewart of Hottiehandicappers.com can be reached at Askkelly@reviewjournal.com. Follow her on Twitter: @kellyinvegas.