Look for Texas A&M to pull off upset of Florida
October 13, 2017 - 7:51 pm
Texas A&M is poised to hand Florida its second straight home loss Saturday at The Swamp.
The Aggies covered the spread and played Alabama to its first one-possession game in last week’s 27-19 loss in College Station as 25-point home underdogs.
Kevin Sumlin’s team had won four in a row before falling to the nation’s top-ranked team. Texas A&M would be 5-1 if not for blowing a 44-10 third-quarter lead in a 45-44 season-opening loss at UCLA.
Nevertheless, Texas A&M still has a chance to win nine games and save Sumlin’s job. True freshman quarterback Kellen Mond is seemingly improving with each game, and the Aggies are ranked 23rd in the nation in rushing yards.
More than anything else, this is a play against a Florida team that’s abysmal on offense and is dealing with a lot of key injuries. The Gators are ranked No. 103 of 130 FBS teams in total offense. If you discount Florida’s three defensive TDs, its offense is averaging 20.8 points per game.
Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog is the heavy play, but also get a taste of the money line at plus-130.
Four more plays (home team in CAPS):
Virginia (-3½) over NORTH CAROLINA: If the Tar Heels aren’t on your fade list at this point, it’s better to add them late than never. Larry Fedora’s squad has sustained 15 season-ending injuries, and one of its best defensive players, senior safety Donnie Miles, is listed as doubtful. Virginia brings a three-game winning streak and soaring confidence into Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels have lost all four of their home games by at least five points, three by double digits.
South Carolina (+3½) over TENNESSEE: I made South Carolina a 3-point favorite. Will Muschamp is 3-0 vs. Butch Jones in head-to-head matchups, and the Gamecocks are 3-0-1 ATS with three outright victories in four games as underdogs this season. The Vols will be without five defensive starters. I love going against a team giving a quarterback his first career start, as Tennessee is doing with redshirt freshman Jarrett Guarantano. South Carolina will win by double digits.
Navy-MEMPHIS (Over 71): The over is 4-1 overall for Memphis, 3-0 in its home games and 3-0 when it has had totals in the 70s. The Tigers are 11th in the nation in total offense and 14th in scoring (42.4 points per game). Memphis is No. 123 in the country in total defense, and Navy leads the nation in rushing yards. The Midshipmen beat Air Force 48-45 last week.
WEST VIRGINIA (-3½) over Texas Tech: I made West Virginia, the country’s best two-loss team, a 10-point favorite vs. the Red Raiders. The Mountaineers had a 28-16 edge in first downs and 508-406 advantage in total offense in last week’s 31-24 loss at Texas Christian. West Virginia easily could be unbeaten and is a top-20 team. Texas Tech is vastly improved, but its defense isn’t going to stop Will Grier and Justin Crawford. West Virginia wins by at least 10.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season: 19-12-1
Brian Edwards of VegasInsider.com and BrianEdwardsSports.com is providing college football analysis for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Follow @vegasbedwards on Twitter.